Nov 14 PVC Price Trend
PVC Futures Analysis: On November 14th, the PVC2601 contract saw a narrow range of price adjustments during the night session, with slight upward fluctuations. Prices initially dipped slightly in the morning session, but the decline was minor, continuing the narrow range of fluctuations. In the afternoon, prices rose significantly, showing a relatively good performance recently. PVC2601 contract opening price: 4591, highest price: 4635, lowest price: 4580, price difference: 55, decrease in open interest: 44024 lots, open interest: 1348369 lots, settlement price: 4604, previous settlement price: 4575, up 29, daily trading volume: 975920 lots. Evaporated funds: 4.349 billion yuan, outflow: 121 million yuan.
Regional Comprehensive Price Overview: Yuan/ton
PVC Spot Market: The mainstream transaction price in the domestic PVC market rose slightly, showing a rare positive performance. Price comparisons show that prices rose by 10 yuan/ton in North China, 20 yuan/ton in East China, 20 yuan/ton in South China, 20 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 20 yuan/ton in Central China, and 20 yuan/ton in Southwest China.
Upstream PVC producers' ex-factory prices remained mostly stable in the morning session. Although the futures market improved slightly, upstream companies largely maintained a wait-and-see attitude. After prices continued to rise in the afternoon, it is expected that ex-factory prices will adjust if the market stabilizes on Monday.
The spot market, guided by rising futures prices, saw improved bidding sentiment. Spot fixed-price offers were slightly increased, with both spot and spot pricing remaining unchanged. Specifically, the basis for the January contract was -(30, -40, -100) in East China, -(0, 20, 40) in South China, -(340, -380) in North China, and -(190, -320) for some sources in Southwest China. Although both spot and futures prices rose, trading volume remained relatively weak.
PVC Market Outlook:
Futures: The PVC2601 futures contract showed some upward movement, reaching a high of 4635 on Friday, approaching the middle Bollinger Band. This slight price increase altered the daily closing price, and Friday saw a significant reduction in open interest, resulting in a long upper shadow on the candlestick. In terms of trading volume, 25.8% of the volume was from short covering to long covering, indicating a shift towards long covering after the price rise.
Technically, the lower Bollinger Band (13, 13, 2) may be turning downwards, showing a narrowing trend. The price increase largely depends on the Indian BIS data and a minor correction after the oversold condition. Fundamental factors are currently limited. In the short term, the price is expected to trade within the 4570-6050 range after the recent small rise, but this price increase cannot be considered a trend reversal.
In the spot market: India announced on November 12, 2025, the abolition of the mandatory BIS certification requirement for imported polyvinyl chloride (PVC). Although the announcement was made on the 12th, it had little impact on the market on the same day and the 13th. Both the futures and spot markets remained sluggish without significant adjustments.
On Friday, the rise in both markets was limited by this news, and given the recent consolidation at low levels, the bears did not exert any new downward pressure during the battle between bulls and bears. However, a price adjustment based on this news should not be expected to be significant.
After a slight price increase in the spot market, both trading volume and inquiries have decreased. With buyers preferring to buy on dips rather than rallies, downstream buyers are adopting a wait-and-see approach. Overall, spot prices may see some minor adjustments in the short term, but the increase is expected to be limited.
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