Nov 3 Natural Rubber Price Trend
Index
On November 3rd, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $1830/ton, down $10 from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Weather in northeastern Thailand was normal, with supply continuing to increase; heavy rainfall in parts of southern Thailand hampered raw material release, leading to increased demand from processing plants and a continued upward trend in latex and cup lump prices; excessive rainfall in Vietnam increased disruption to tapping operations, resulting in a temporary tightness in latex supply and limited raw material circulation. Supported by immediate demand, latex prices remained relatively firm.
Domestic: Overall latex production in Yunnan Province decreased, with a significant drop in dry content. Processing plant demand remained stable, and purchase prices declined today; continued rainfall in Hainan Province hampered tapping operations, resulting in lower fresh latex production and limited available raw material for local rubber processing plants.
On the demand side: It is understood that most enterprises' facilities are operating stably. Recently, some sample enterprises have experienced limited overall output due to external factors, with some undergoing shutdowns or maintenance. Some capacity is still recovering, which continues to drag down overall output. Shipments are relatively concentrated at the end of the month, leading to a slight decline in finished product inventory.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Forecast
Today, the main rubber futures contract fluctuated within a range, while spot offers remained largely unchanged. Holders showed reasonable willingness to offer. Overseas raw material prices have slowed their rise and stabilized, coupled with weakening external macroeconomic sentiment, driving rubber prices lower.
However, in the short term, concentrated rainfall in domestic and international producing areas is affecting tapping operations and production release. Meanwhile, the Yunnan producing area in China is gradually transitioning to a production reduction phase due to declining "dry content." Therefore, support for natural rubber remains in the short term, and rubber prices are expected to remain relatively firm.
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