Nov 4 NR Qingdao Price Drop
Index
On November 4th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $1820/ton, down $10 from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Weather was normal in northeastern Thailand, with supply continuing to increase; heavy rainfall in parts of the south hampered raw material release, leading to increased demand from processing plants and a surge in latex and cup lump prices. In Vietnam, excessive rainfall disrupted tapping operations, resulting in a temporary tightness in latex supply and limited raw material circulation. Supported by immediate demand, latex prices remained relatively firm.
Domestic: Overall latex production in Yunnan province decreased, with a significant drop in dry content. Processing plant demand remained stable, and purchase prices declined today. In Hainan province, continued rainfall hampered tapping operations, resulting in lower fresh latex production and limited available raw material for local rubber processing plants.
Demand Side: It is understood that at the beginning of the month, most companies maintained stable operations, with shipments continuing at a regular pace. Due to production scheduling issues, some all-steel tire manufacturers are experiencing shortages of certain specifications, but this has not significantly impacted overall shipments. Most companies have sufficient inventory at the beginning of the month, and pricing policies largely remain unchanged from the previous month, with some companies moderately retracting previous promotional policies.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Forecast
Today, the main rubber futures contract weakened amid fluctuations, and spot offers followed suit. Holders had limited willingness to sell at lower prices, resulting in a quiet trading atmosphere. Concentrated rainfall in domestic and international producing areas has affected overall rubber tapping output.
Domestically, the dry rubber content in Yunnan's producing areas is gradually transitioning to a reduced production phase, providing some support from the raw material side, but the overall support is limited. Coupled with the inflection point in inventory accumulation for dark rubber, the bearish sentiment in the market remains strong, and rubber prices have further room to decline.
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