Oct 13th: Qingdao Rubber Price Drop

Index

On October 13, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was $1,820/ton, down $30/ton from the previous trading day.

Market Analysis
Futures Market:

Spot Market

Supply:

Overseas: Rainfall in Southeast Asia is easing, and the pace of new rubber production in overseas producing areas is slowing. Raw material procurement prices remain high, and Southeast Asian processing plants are unwilling to reduce prices for shipments, indicating that cost support remains.

Domestic: Weather in the Yunnan producing area is normal, and raw material supply is adequate. Due to the decline in futures and spot prices, procurement prices have fallen slightly. Continued rainfall in the Hainan producing area has restricted rubber tapping operations, slowing the seasonal increase in raw material supply. Due to the downward trend in domestic and international futures and spot prices, local processing plants are cautious about increasing purchase prices for raw materials.

Demand:

It is understood that the semi-steel tire market coincided with the "Double Spring Festival" holiday, with increased private car travel, boosting end-user demand. This has led to a significant increase in shipments to end-user stores and increased supply through channels. Due to the "Double Spring Festival" holiday, most vendors in the all-steel tire market took short holidays, resulting in reduced channel transaction volume. Most vendors focused on depleting inventory, with restocking delayed.

Market Forecast

Today, the main rubber futures contract saw a strong and volatile decline, with spot prices declining in tandem with the market's center of gravity. Rainfall in producing areas is expected to weaken in the future, leading to strong supply growth expectations, which will weigh on rubber prices to some extent. Tire manufacturers are waiting to restock, and Qingdao may see a slight inventory buildup. The short-term macroeconomic sentiment is weak, and natural rubber prices remain at risk of further decline.

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