PE Market Dynamics on August 6
Domestic Petrochemical Inventories: Polyolefin inventories from both oil and gas industries reached 785,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from yesterday.
PE Spot Market Analysis: Today's domestic PE market prices showed some minor adjustments, but overall stability. Linear and high-pressure grades saw price fluctuations of 10-50 yuan/ton in North and East China. Low-pressure film and low-pressure wire drawing grades remained largely stable, with only narrow price fluctuations in North China and East China.
The market remained volatile, with no clear trend of price fluctuations. Ex-factory prices for PE manufacturers remained generally stable, with only a few companies experiencing minor adjustments, some with price reductions of 40-50 yuan/ton and others with price increases of 30-50 yuan/ton.
Price fluctuations were limited. From a downstream perspective, agricultural film companies, impacted by sluggish seasonal demand, have maintained a small-order replenishment strategy for raw material purchases.
Purchases of PE raw materials used in the production of ground and greenhouse films have not seen significant growth. Packaging film companies, facing weak end-consumer demand, such as insufficient orders for food and daily necessities packaging, have primarily purchased PE raw materials to meet immediate production needs, further dampening market trading activity.
Downstream market supply capacity is weak, and traders are prioritizing stable shipments. Quotations are often market-driven, leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
PE spot price forecast: In futures trading, the L2509 contract's night trading price showed a fluctuating downward trend. Prices continued to rise in the morning session, reaching their intraday high before retreating. Prices remained volatile at a relatively high level in the afternoon session. The resumption date for PE plants currently shut down for maintenance is uncertain, and downstream factories are struggling to secure orders. However, with the September autumn harvest approaching, the agricultural film sector is gradually initiating reserve purchases. In the short term, the polyethylene market is expected to experience a period of volatile consolidation. On the one hand, the uncertain progress of plant resumption has a potential impact on the supply side, with insufficient downstream orders suppressing immediate demand. On the other hand, the gradual release of demand for agricultural film reserves may provide some support to the market. However, it should be noted that as the main contract rollover approaches, market capital flows and expectations may adjust, significantly increasing uncertainty in the futures market.
Mainstream PE Market Quotes:
PE Futures Analysis: August 6th, L2509 Opening Price: 7323, High: 7344, Low: 7294, Open Interest: 291,496, Settlement Price: 7318, Yesterday's Settlement: 7288, Up 30%, Daily Trading Volume: 166,807 lots, Deposited Capital: 1.494 billion, Outflow: 51.77 million.
Domestic PE Index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic HDPE spot index on August 6th was 7650, up 1; the LDPE film spot index was 9534, up 16; and the LLDPE spot index was 7344, up 15.
Shenhua Auction Statistics: Today's linear auction volume was 550 tons, with 450 tons sold.
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