PE Market Prices Stabilize in a Range
Domestic Petrochemical Inventories: Polyolefin inventories from both oil and gas companies reached 680,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from yesterday.
PE Spot Market Analysis: Today, domestic PE market prices showed a weak and stable trend. Low-pressure film material prices remained stable only in South China, with some declines in North and East China, ranging from 30 to 210 yuan/ton. Linear, high-pressure, and low-pressure wire drawing materials remained stable in North, East, and South China.
Ex-factory prices for PE manufacturers remained generally stable, with only a few manufacturers lowering prices for some grades by 50 to 200 yuan/ton based on their inventory structures and sales plans. Meanwhile, a few specific grades saw price increases of 20 to 50 yuan/ton. These price adjustments were localized and differentiated, with no mainstream trend emerging. Downstream companies focused their procurement on meeting the "urgent needs" of just-in-time production.
Only during periods of price decline did they engage in moderate "buying on dips," but both the willingness and scale of these increases remained cautious, with no large-scale restocking occurring. Currently, few market participants are actively quoting. Most traders and manufacturers prioritize "active shipments" as their core business objective, accelerating inventory turnover to adapt to current market conditions and alleviate inventory pressure. Current market activity is low, and the overall sentiment is subdued.
PE Spot Price Forecast: In the futures market, the L2601 contract's night trading price saw significant volatility, with bulls and bears vying for control. Prices fluctuated downward in the morning session and then consolidated in the afternoon.
Currently, no new plant shutdowns have occurred, and the overall supply scale in the industry remains stable, with no significant supply contraction or expansion. Traders' quotes are primarily adjusted on a case-by-case basis, supported by strong upstream cost support. This limits the actual margin available for profit sharing. Furthermore, relatively tight supply in the market circulation chain further constrains price declines. On the downstream side, despite the arrival of the traditional peak demand season (Golden September), purchasing activity among end-users has not significantly increased.
Purchases are still primarily small, just-in-time orders, and the willingness to replenish inventory remains low, resulting in less-than-expected peak season demand. Overall, the market lacks a clear driving force to guide market trends.
On the one hand, cost support, coupled with tight supply, is holding back significant price declines. On the other hand, anticipated demand for the "Golden September" holiday has yet to materialize, and weak downstream purchasing is significantly suppressing the market, creating a volatile dynamic between bullish and bearish factors. The polyethylene market is expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term, with prices unlikely to experience a breakthrough and trading volume expected to remain subdued.
Mainstream PE Market Quotes:
PE Futures Analysis: September 3rd, L2601 Opening Price: 7252, High: 7290, Low: 7238, Open Interest: 490,459, Settlement Price: 7262, Yesterday's Settlement: 7261, Up 1, Daily Trading Volume: 212,912 Contracts, Deposited Funds: 2.488 Billion, Inflow: 44.43 Million.
Domestic PE Index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic HDPE spot index was 7629 on September 3rd, down 40 points; the LDPE film spot index was 9524, down 0 points; and the LLDPE spot index was 7338, down 0 points.
Shenhua Auction Statistics: Today's linear auction volume was 300 tons, and today's trading volume was 299 tons.
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