PE Market Review, Sep 10th
Domestic Petrochemical Inventories: Polyolefin inventories from both oil and gas industries reached 675,000 tons, down 15,000 tons from yesterday.
PE Spot Market Analysis: Today, domestic PE market prices showed a stable but adjusted trend. Linear grades saw a slight increase in prices only in North China, remaining stable in East and South China. High-pressure grades saw a slight decrease in prices only in East China, remaining stable in North and South China. Low-pressure film grades saw a slight decrease in prices only in North China, with prices in East and South China showing no change compared to yesterday. Low-pressure wire drawing grades saw price adjustments only in North China, remaining stable in East and South China. Currently, mainstream ex-factory prices for PE manufacturers remain stable.
Due to structural adjustments in some local markets, some companies have lowered prices by 50-300 yuan/ton to boost shipments, while others have raised their quotes by 10-100 yuan/ton based on the supply and demand structure or order status of specific products.
Although the overall market quotation frequency is currently low, given the traditionally peak demand season of September, traders maintain a relatively optimistic outlook for the upcoming market, driving a cautious upward trend in overall market prices. Analysis of actual transactions reveals limited improvement in market trading sentiment, with downstream companies and traders remaining cautious, and overall market activity has yet to see a substantial increase.
PE Spot Price Forecast: In terms of futures, the L2601 contract saw two consecutive surges and declines in the evening session. The price continued its volatile pattern in the morning session, fluctuating back and forth. The price surged and then fell again in the afternoon session, before exhibiting a fluctuating downward trend in late trading. Currently, there is no clear resumption date for idled PE plants on the market, with some remaining idle for an extended period. Supply remains relatively stable.
The downstream market is currently experiencing a low demand season, with end-users operating at low capacity and a relatively insufficient order intake. This directly hinders their ability to effectively meet their PE raw material procurement needs, resulting in weak follow-up momentum. In terms of procurement, end-user companies are primarily purchasing in small batches to replenish inventory needed for current production, with no large-scale stockpiling currently underway.
The overall pace of procurement remains cautious. Regarding inventory, inventories of the two oil-based polyolefins have fallen to 675,000 tons, easing inventory pressure somewhat. Overall, the market lacks significant drivers on both the supply and demand sides. There are no expectations of new reductions or increases on the supply side, while demand, constrained by the off-season, is unlikely to see substantial improvement.
While declining inventories will provide some support to the market, they will be unable to reverse the overall weak market situation. The polyethylene market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with limited room for price fluctuations. Traders will continue to prioritize maintaining stable shipments and flexibly adjusting quotes, and firm transactions are likely to remain in a negotiating atmosphere.
Mainstream PE Market Quotes:
PE Futures Analysis: September 10th, L2601 Opening Price: 7234, High: 7247, Low: 7222, Open Interest: 517,187, Settlement Price: 7233, Yesterday's Settlement: 7228, Up 5%, Daily Trading Volume: 178,117 Contracts, Deposited Capital: 2.616 Billion, Outflow: 5.08 Million.
Domestic PE Index: According to Tuduoduo data, on September 10th, the domestic HDPE spot index was 7652, down 2%, the LDPE film spot index was 9496, down 3%, and the LLDPE spot index was 7328, up 4%.
Shenhua Auction Statistics: Today's linear auction volume was 200 tons, and today's trading volume was 200 tons.
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