PE Market Weak Trend Nov
Domestic Petrochemical Inventory: Sinopec and PetroChina's polyolefin inventory totaled 720,000 tons, an increase of 55,000 tons from last week.
PE Spot Market Analysis: Today, the domestic PE market continued its generally weak trend. In North China, only the lowest price of linear grade PE rose slightly, while the prices of high-pressure, low-pressure film, and low-pressure fiber grades all fell, with price reductions ranging from 20-100 yuan/ton.
In East China, only the highest price of linear grade PE rose, while the price of high-pressure grade PE fluctuated between 70-100 yuan/ton. The prices of low-pressure film and low-pressure fiber grades remained unchanged from yesterday. In South China, only the price of low-pressure fiber grade PE remained stable, while the prices of linear, high-pressure, and low-pressure film grades all fell from yesterday, although the highest price of low-pressure film grade PE rose.
The current PE market pricing exhibits significant divergence, lacking a unified trend. Some producers maintain their existing ex-factory prices, ensuring price stability, while others, considering their inventory levels, order structure, and changes in market supply and demand, have lowered their ex-factory prices by 10-650 yuan/ton.
Simultaneously, a few companies have chosen to raise prices, with adjustments ranging from 50-300 yuan/ton. The direction and magnitude of price adjustments vary considerably among different companies. In the trading sector, traders flexibly adjust their prices in real-time to match the current circulation rhythm.
However, at this stage, market sentiment is cautious, lacking a clear logic or driving factor for price increases, resulting in weak upward momentum. On the demand side, downstream enterprises are primarily replenishing their inventories to meet rigid production needs, showing little willingness to actively increase procurement. Transactions are only facilitated under low-price conditions, resulting in limited overall market activity and insufficient support for substantial price increases.
PE Spot Market Trend Forecast: In the futures market, the L2601 contract price initially rose slightly in the night session before fluctuating downwards. The price continued its weak trend in the morning session, with a slight rebound, but the strength was limited. The price fluctuated upwards in the afternoon session and remained within a high range at the close.
The core contradiction of supply and demand imbalance in the current PE market remains prominent. Downstream demand is limited, failing to provide effective support for market prices. Coupled with insufficient confidence from enterprises regarding the future market, the overall market is primarily operating by digesting low-priced resources. On the demand side, downstream factories maintain a rigid, inelastic demand pattern, with weak willingness to actively replenish inventory and lacking the momentum to expand procurement, making it difficult to absorb market supply pressure.
Meanwhile, supply-side pressure has further intensified. After the weekend's inventory accumulation, the inventories of the two major oil companies are once again high. The market's oversupply situation has not fundamentally changed, and the supply-demand mismatch continues to suppress market sentiment. In summary, the core logic of the current market supply-demand imbalance remains unchanged.
Weak demand and ample supply are exerting a double pressure, with low-priced resources being digested slowly. Coupled with cautious expectations from enterprises regarding the future market, there is a lack of core drivers for price increases. It is expected that the polyethylene market will continue its weak consolidation trend in the short term.
Mainstream PE Market Prices:
PE Futures Analysis: On November 10th, L2601 opened at 6793, reached a high of 6811, a low of 6766, with open interest of 586,307 contracts, a settlement price of 6788, a previous settlement price of 6806, a decrease of 18 contracts, a daily trading volume of 242,633 lots, and a net inflow of 2.792 billion yuan.
Domestic PE Indices: According to data from TuDuoDuo, on November 10th, the domestic HDPE spot index was 7419, up 5 contracts; the LDPE film spot index was 8943, down 65 contracts; and the LLDPE spot index was 6982, down 13 contracts. Shenhua Auction Statistics: Linear transceivers: 700 tons auctioned today, 53 tons sold. High-voltage transceivers: 197.65 tons auctioned today, 0 tons sold. Low-voltage transceivers: 0 tons auctioned today, 0 tons sold.
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