PE Spot Price Fluctuation Nov
Domestic Petrochemical Inventory: Sinopec and PetroChina's polyolefin inventory totaled 700,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from yesterday.
PE Spot Market Analysis: Today, the domestic PE market showed a generally weak and stable trend. In North China, only the lowest market price for linear grade PE rose slightly, while the highest market price for linear grade PE and the market price for low-density fiber grade PE fell, fluctuating between 20-70 yuan/ton.
The market prices for high-density and low-density film grades remained stable. In East China, only the market price for linear grade PE fell, while the market prices for high-density, low-density film, and low-density fiber grades remained stable.
In South China, only the market price for low-density film grade PE remained unchanged from yesterday, while the market prices for linear, high-density, and low-density fiber grades all fell to varying degrees, with price reductions ranging from 30-100 yuan/ton.
The current domestic PE market is exhibiting a differentiated trend due to the interplay of supply and demand. Producers are structurally adjusting their ex-factory prices, with some grades remaining stable while others have lowered prices by 30-550 yuan/ton based on their own inventory and sales strategies.
The mainstream price adjustments are aligned with the actual supply and demand situation. Influenced by these price adjustments, traders are flexibly adjusting their quotes, focusing on actively shipping and accelerating inventory turnover, demonstrating a clear willingness to offer discounts.
On the demand side, downstream enterprises are adopting a more rational purchasing mentality, only buying as needed for rigid production requirements, lacking the motivation to actively increase inventory. This has resulted in a persistently weak market transaction volume. Against this backdrop, the overall market sentiment is cautious and bearish.
Some resources in the spot market are showing slight price concessions, with buyers and sellers mostly determining transactions through negotiation. The overall trading atmosphere is mild, with no significant increase in volume. The market is operating primarily on an "on-demand, negotiated basis" basis.
PE Spot Price Forecast: In the futures market, the L2601 contract price initially rose and then fell in the night session. The price initially fluctuated upwards in the morning before dipping to a relatively low point before rebounding. In the afternoon session, the price initially declined before briefly rising to a relatively high point, then slightly retreating.
Currently, the domestic PE market supply side remains generally stable, with plant operating rates remaining stable and no large-scale maintenance or production cuts. Coupled with the fact that previous inventories have not been fully digested, market inventory pressure remains objectively present. On the demand side, multiple pressures exist.
As temperatures gradually decrease, the industry is gradually entering the traditional off-season. Low temperatures significantly restrict the operation of various downstream sub-sectors. For the agricultural film industry, a core demand sector, the peak season for greenhouse film production is nearing its end, and the laying of mulch film is difficult to advance due to surface temperatures, resulting in a continued decline in operating rates.
The packaging industry, previously driven by e-commerce stockpiling, has seen a decline in demand, with orders for products such as express bags and food packaging falling, and companies returning to rational purchasing.
The pipe and injection molding industries are also facing limited operations and mostly maintaining low-load production due to slowing end-user construction and weak consumer demand. Downstream enterprises generally focus on small, immediate-needs purchases, lacking the willingness to actively increase inventory.
Their limited capacity to absorb upstream raw materials further exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance. Overall, the weak supply-demand balance in the polyethylene market is unlikely to change in the short term. Insufficient cost support, coupled with weak demand and inventory pressure, suggests the market will continue its weak consolidation trend.
Mainstream PE Market Prices:
PE Futures Analysis: On November 19th, L2601 opened at 6785, reached a high of 6838, a low of 6781, held 528,666 contracts, settled at 6813, compared to the previous settlement of 6818, a decrease of 5 contracts, daily trading volume of 281,440 lots, outstanding funds of 2.529 billion yuan, and capital outflow of 75.7 million yuan.
PE Futures Analysis: November 19th L2601 opening price: 6785, highest price: 6838, lowest price: 6781, open interest: 528,666, settlement price: 6813, previous settlement price: 6818, down 5, daily trading volume: 281,440 lots, idle funds: 2.529 billion yuan, capital outflow: 75.7 million yuan.
Domestic PE Index: According to data from TuDuoDuo, on November 19th, the domestic HDPE spot index was 7417, unchanged; the LDPE film spot index was 8818, down 25; and the LLDPE spot index was 6985, down 30.
Shenhua Auction Statistics: Linear polyethylene auction volume and transaction volume were both 150 tons and 150 tons respectively. High-density polyethylene auction volume and transaction volume were both 0 tons and 0 tons respectively. Low-density polyethylene auction volume and transaction volume were both 0 tons and 0 tons respectively.
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