Polyethylene PE: Spot price trends diverge, market trading atmosphere is still good(December 31, 2024)

January 2, 2025, 3:23 PM

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Highlights at a glance

This article analyzes the current state of the domestic petrochemical inventory, highlighting a decrease of 30,000 tons in oil polyolefin. It examines the weak overall performance of the PE market, with minor price increases in specific regions and factors affecting crude oil demand. The article also forecasts potential supply pressures and insights into trading dynamics.

Domestic petrochemical inventory: Two oil polyolefin inventory 520,000 tons, down 30,000 tons from yesterday.

Shenhua auction statistics: Linear today's auction volume is 300 tons, today's transaction volume is 300 tons. High pressure today's auction volume is 0 tons, today's transaction volume is 0 tons. Low pressure today's auction volume is 0 tons, today's transaction volume is 0 tons.

PE spot market analysis: Today's domestic PE market is overall weak, except for the small increase in linear prices in East China and South China, the rest of the market prices are stable and weak, with a decline of 20-120 yuan/ton. International oil prices continue to rise, and the cost support of the PE market remains strengthened. In addition, some spot supplies in the market remain tight, supporting the quotations to push up, and the supply of other supplies continues to increase. Traders follow the market, superimposed on the terminal off-season production, and purchase at low prices, the trading atmosphere in the market is still good.

PE spot trend forecast: In terms of raw materials, the crude oil market is affected by multiple factors. Among them, the positive factors include the expected improvement of the Asian economy and the expected cold weather in the northeastern United States, which are expected to boost crude oil consumption demand. The negative factors include the poor outlook for global demand and the easing of the geopolitical situation. It is also necessary to pay attention to the release of important economic data such as China's manufacturing PMI. In terms of supply, the number of PE units planned for maintenance in the field is limited. In addition, the PE units that were previously shut down are planned to resume operation, and the imported goods are arriving at the port one after another, and the supply pressure may increase. In terms of demand, after the New Year's Day holiday, downstream factories may replenish their stocks, but the terminal off-season atmosphere continues, and the boost to the PE market is limited. Overall, the polyethylene market is expected to consolidate in a weak position in the short term.

Mainstream PE market quotes:

PE futures analysis: L2505 opening price on December 31: 8109, highest price: 8187, lowest price: 8102, position: 549102, settlement price: 8157, yesterday's settlement: 8103, increase: 54, daily trading volume: 373056 lots, deposited funds: 3.143 billion, capital inflow: 185 million.

Domestic PE index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic HDPE spot index on December 31 was 8022, down 10; the LDPE film spot index was 10479, down 24; the LLDPE spot index was 8998, up 10.