Polyethylene PE: Spot prices are weak, and the market is in a strong pre-sale mood(December 30, 2024)

December 31, 2024, 3:13 PM

TDD

5002

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Highlights at a glance

This article discusses the current state of domestic petrochemical inventory, particularly polyolefins, which increased to 550,000 tons. It analyzes auction statistics, PE market trends, and forecasts. Despite a slight price increase in linear PE, the overall market remains weak with cautious downstream purchases. The impact of crude oil prices and supply expectations are also explored, indicating a fluctuating polyethylene market in the short term.

Domestic petrochemical inventory: The inventory of polyolefins of the two oils is 550,000 tons, an increase of 55,000 tons from last week.

Shenhua auction statistics: Linear today's auction volume is 300 tons, and today's transaction volume is 272 tons. High pressure today's auction volume is 0 tons, and today's transaction volume is 0 tons. Low pressure today's auction volume is 0 tons, and today's transaction volume is 0 tons.

PE spot market analysis: Today's domestic PE market is overall weak. Except for the small increase in linear prices in East China and South China, the prices in other markets are stable and weak, with a decline of 20-120 yuan/ton. US commercial crude oil inventories fell more than expected, and the crude oil market still has expectations for the recovery of Asian demand prospects. The rise in international oil prices has strengthened the cost support for the PE market. In addition, the supply of goods in the field has increased, and the terminal demand has been mediocre. Downstream purchases remain cautious, and the market is in a strong pre-sale mood. Some low prices are pre-sale orders during the week.

PE spot trend forecast: In terms of raw materials, the crude oil market is affected by multiple factors. Among them, the positive factors include the continuation of OPEC+ production cuts and the expectation of economic improvement in Asia. The negative factors include the poor outlook for global demand and the easing of the geopolitical situation. We also need to pay attention to the uncertainty of the demand outlook in Asia and the situation in the Middle East. In terms of supply, there is an expectation of an increase in the supply of goods in the market. There may be some differences in terms of the increment. The impact on the import side has a greater impact on LDPE and HDPE. In terms of quantity, it is not enough to cause inventory pressure in the short term, and prices may mainly decline slowly. In terms of demand, downstream order support may weaken, and the trading environment in the market still presents an off-season atmosphere. Most orders are coming to an end, and companies have limited follow-up on new orders. Overall, the polyethylene market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

Mainstream PE market quotes:

PE futures analysis: L2505 opening price on December 30: 8079, highest price: 8132, lowest price: 8075, position: 521636, settlement price: 8103, yesterday's settlement: 8125, drop: 22, daily trading volume: 258438 lots, deposited funds: 2.959 billion, capital outflow: 28 million.

Domestic PE index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic HDPE spot index on December 30 was 8032, down 6; the LDPE film spot index was 10503, down 23; the LLDPE spot index was 8988, up 28.