PP Inventory Price Change
Domestic petrochemical inventory: The combined inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina's polyolefins was 685,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from yesterday.
Futures Analysis: On November 25th, the PP2601 contract price fluctuated narrowly in the night session. After a brief surge in the morning, prices quickly fell back, returning to the trading range. The afternoon session saw a continuous downward trend. The 01 contract saw an increase of 581 lots in open interest. Open price: 6363, highest price: 6378, lowest price: 6313, price difference: 65, open interest: 605,759, settlement price: 6355, previous settlement price: 6366, decrease: 11, daily trading volume: 275,922 lots, idle funds: 2.679 billion, capital outflow: 20.73 million.
Mainstream market prices for PP (rough grade):
Domestic spot market analysis: Today, the domestic PP market showed a generally weak and stable trend. Prices in South China declined, while prices in North China, East China, Southwest China, and Northwest China remained stable compared to yesterday. Domestic polypropylene prices ranged from 6180-6480 yuan/ton. The domestic PP market is currently showing a stable-to-adjustment trend.
To adapt to the market supply and demand situation, some producers have lowered their ex-factory prices by 20-50 yuan/ton, with the adjustment being moderate and limited in scope, keeping the overall ex-factory price system relatively stable. From the demand side, downstream industries have not shown significant purchasing momentum.
Most companies are maintaining a just-in-time restocking pace, purchasing only according to their own production plans and lacking the willingness to stockpile on a large scale. This directly leads to a weak market atmosphere, insufficient trading activity, and no significant breakthrough in actual transaction volume.
As for traders, influenced by the stable supply and demand, their pricing strategy is mainly market-driven, flexibly pricing based on upstream ex-factory price adjustments and their own inventory levels, without actively pushing up or down prices, further supporting market price stability.
In summary, a combination of factors, including moderate upstream price adjustments, downstream demand driven by essential needs, and cautious trading by traders, has propelled the domestic PP market into a consolidation phase. No significant short-term price fluctuations are expected, and the market is generally operating smoothly.
Market Outlook: The current domestic PP market is in a state of flux, with both bullish and bearish factors balancing each other. These factors, coupled with localized changes in industry supply and demand, are influencing market dynamics.
On the positive side, the continued US sanctions against major oil-producing countries, coupled with persistent global geopolitical uncertainties, provide some support to the crude oil market. This indirectly benefits the PP industry chain, which uses crude oil as an upstream raw material, mitigating downward pressure on the PP market to some extent.
However, negative factors cannot be ignored. OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production, and expectations of ample global crude oil supply persist. Coupled with the current slowdown in global economic recovery and weak overall end-user demand, end-user consumption is insufficient to drive the PP market. From the downstream market perspective, the purchasing enthusiasm of product manufacturers is generally low.
Most companies are constrained by limited follow-up orders from end-users and are mainly replenishing inventory as needed, lacking the motivation for large-scale stockpiling. Some small product manufacturers are maintaining low production loads due to insufficient orders, limiting their capacity to absorb PP raw materials.
Regarding industry dynamics, Shanghai SECCO's PP plant temporarily shut down yesterday and is expected to restart today according to the company's latest plan. This short-term shutdown did not have a substantial impact on market supply.
After restarting, the plant will gradually resume normal output, further ensuring market supply stability. Overall, the current PP market is characterized by a balance between bullish and bearish factors, and with a lack of substantial improvement in downstream demand, a significant recovery in the end-product industry is unlikely in the short term. It is expected that the domestic polypropylene market will maintain a range-bound trading pattern in the short term.
Domestic PP Index: According to data from TuDuoDuo, the domestic PP spot index was 6295.00 on November 25th, down 2 points, a decrease of 0.03%.
Guoneng's auction statistics: Guoneng Coal Chemical's auction volume today was 1,500 tons, a decrease of 40% compared to yesterday; 728 tons were sold, a decrease of 47.78% compared to yesterday, with a transaction rate of 80.89%, a decrease of 12.04% compared to yesterday.
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