PP Market: Inventory, Futures & Outlook

October 24, 2025, 11:46 AM

TDD-global

3950

Guide

Highlights at a glance

Domestic polyolefin inventories stood at 780,000 tons on October 22, down 10,000 tons from the previous day. The PP2601 futures contract showed weak fluctuations overnight, rebounding after a morning stabilization and surging in the afternoon before consolidating slightly lower, closing within a high range. Trading volume reached 253,179 lots with open interest at 2.934 billion yuan. The domestic PP spot market remained stable, with prices ranging from 6,360 to 6,630 yuan/ton across regions. Supply was steady as most producers held prices firm, while demand recovery remained sluggish, limited to rigid needs. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm stayed low, resulting in weak market activity and increased discounting by traders to clear inventory. Despite geopolitical risks offering slight support, bearish factors dominate due to OPEC+ output increases, soft global economic recovery, and ample supply from ongoing operations like Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 450,000-ton unit. Demand shows no strong improvement signal, leading to a near-term outlook of weak volatility. The domestic PP index was unchanged at 6,510.00. Meanwhile, Guoneng’s auction saw significant gains in volume and transaction rate, rising to 2,162 tons and 87.23% respectively.

Domestic petrochemical inventories: Polyolefin inventories of both crude and crude oil products reached 780,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from yesterday.

Futures Analysis: The PP2601 contract price fluctuated weakly in the night session on October 22nd. After stabilizing at a low in the morning, it quickly rebounded. In the afternoon session, the price surged before consolidating in a narrow range.

Despite a slight decline, it generally remained within a relatively high range. Opening price: 6610, high: 6642, low: 6575, with a spread of 67. Opening price: 633,255. Settlement price: 6607. Yesterday's settlement price: 6572, up 35. Daily trading volume: 253,179 lots. Deposited funds: 2.934 billion yuan. Outflow: 57.06 million yuan.

Mainstream market quotes for wire drawing:

Domestic spot market analysis: Today, the domestic PP market showed an overall stable trend. Market prices in North China, East China, South China, Southwest China, and Northwest China remained unchanged compared to yesterday. The mainstream domestic polypropylene price ranged from 6,360 to 6,630 yuan/ton.

The PP supply side of the market remains generally stable, with manufacturers primarily maintaining their ex-factory prices, with only specific grades experiencing downward adjustments.

Overall supply-side fluctuations are limited. On the demand side, downstream orders are recovering slowly, with companies generally showing little enthusiasm for purchasing. Restocking is strictly limited to rigid demand, making it difficult to effectively support the market. Affected by the "stable supply and weak demand" landscape on both the supply and demand sides, the market has yet to see any clear positive factors boost confidence, leading to a period of weak price consolidation.

Against this backdrop, traders are increasingly offering discounts to accelerate inventory reduction and boost transactions. However, due to a lack of downstream interest in accepting goods, market activity remains subdued, resulting in a relatively subdued trading atmosphere. The weak supply-demand balance continues to dominate the market.

Market Forecast: The PP market is currently experiencing a complex mix of bullish and bearish factors, with bearish forces dominating, resulting in continued market pressure. From a perspective of influencing factors, the positive side relies solely on the continued US sanctions on oil-producing countries and the potential support from geopolitical uncertainties. However, negative pressure is more significant.

On the one hand, OPEC+'s insistence on increasing production is suppressing the crude oil market and indirectly weakening PP cost support. On the other hand, the sluggish global economic recovery and weak downstream demand are directly constraining market upward momentum. From a supply and demand perspective, supply-side pressure is unlikely to ease in the short term.

Zhejiang Petrochemical's 450,000-ton PP unit continues to operate, and the current market destocking pace is slow, maintaining an ample supply. However, demand lacks momentum for improvement.

Downstream companies are still primarily purchasing for rigid demand, and their willingness to restock is low, making it difficult to effectively support the market. Considering these factors and the supply and demand landscape, the polypropylene market is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term.

Domestic PP Index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic PP spot index was 6510.00 on October 22, down 0, or 0.00%.

Guoneng auction statistics: Guoneng Coal Chemical's auction volume today was 2,162 tons, up 94.77% from yesterday; the transaction volume was 1,886 tons, up 384.83% from yesterday; the transaction rate was 87.23%, up 52.19% from yesterday.

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