PP Market Trends Aug 11
Domestic petrochemical inventory: The inventory of two oil polyolefins was 835,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from last week.
Futures analysis: On August 11, the PP2509 contract night trading futures price showed a trend of rising first, then falling back, and then fluctuating and consolidation; after the opening of the morning session, the price continued to fluctuate, and the center of gravity of the price gradually moved up; the futures price fluctuated all the way upward in the afternoon. 09 contract reduced positions by 27,702 lots, opening price: 7,069, highest price: 7,099, lowest price: 7,056, price difference: 43, position volume: 201314, settlement price: 7,076, yesterday's settlement: 7,066, increase: 10, daily trading volume: 162,217 lots, deposited funds: 1.00 billion, capital outflow: 132 million.
Mainstream quotes for market brushing:
Domestic spot market analysis: Today, the domestic PP market shows a trend of maintaining stability and fine-tuning in most regions. Only the market prices in East China have risen slightly, while the market prices in South China have fallen slightly, while the market prices in North China, Southwest and Northwest remain stable.
In terms of price: The mainstream domestic polypropylene price ranges from 6950-7170 yuan/ton. Currently, the ex-factory prices of PP manufacturers remain stable overall, and only a few companies have slightly lowered their quotations to promote transactions.
From the demand side, the downstream industries are currently in the traditional off-season. The operating rates in major application areas such as plastic braiding and BOPP remain low, and the terminal order volume has shrunk, resulting in the simultaneous weakening of the purchasing intention and ability of PP raw materials, further suppressing the activity of market transactions and lacking upward support.
Only a few companies have tested the market's acceptance through price adjustments, and the overall market has shown a weak and stable operation trend. The market trading atmosphere is dull, lacks clear guidance and signals, and terminal demand is weak, and traders are actively using the strategy of following up on the market.
Market forecast: In terms of crude oil, the positive factors are mainly due to the continued implementation of the US sanctions policy on oil-producing countries. In terms of negative factors, it is restricted by factors such as the slowdown in the geopolitical situation compared with the previous period, but the instability remains, OPEC+ insists on increasing production, and the global economic prosperity is relatively low to suppress demand.
The current supply and demand game between the domestic polypropylene market is intensifying, showing a phased stalemate. On the supply side, there is no new plan to resume work. Guoneng Xinjiang and Yanchang China Coal Equipment is expected to enter the parking process today. The two oil polyolefins accumulated 90,000 tons of inventory over the weekend, and the cumulative pressure increased. The expectation of shrinkage on the supply side is in a hedge against the cumulative reality.
The US dollar market is mainly stable, and the internal market continues to fluctuate in the range. The terminals are cautious in taking over due to weak demand. Traders' quotation strategies are differentiated, and stable prices are waiting and lowered to coexist. Overall, the market trend of the polypropylene contains unknowns and variables. On the one hand, the main contract is about to be replaced, and the futures market is full of uncertainty. During the period when the main contract is exchanged for month, changes in capital flows and market expectations often lead to intensifying futures price fluctuations, which may be transmitted to the spot market, affecting the mentality and operational strategies of market participants.
On the other hand, the parking and resumption of production of supply-side devices, the actual release of downstream demand, and the continued fermentation of positive and negative factors at the macro level will all jointly dominate the market trend. If the supply and demand pattern does not change significantly, it is expected that the polypropylene market will continue the range fluctuation and consolidation trend in the short term.
Domestic PP index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic PP spot index on August 11 was 7042.00, down 0, an amplitude of 0.00%.
Guoneng Auction Statistics: Guoneng Coal Chemical's bidding volume today was 1,774 tons, a decrease of 11.26% from yesterday; 1,225 tons were sold, an increase of 10.46% from yesterday, and the transaction rate was 69.05%, an increase of 13.58% from yesterday.
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