PVC 2601 Contract Price Trend
PVC Futures Analysis: On December 3rd, the PVC2601 contract opened higher but then fell in the night session, experiencing a slight decline before consolidating within a narrow range. The morning session continued this pattern of minor adjustments, but prices weakened slightly again in the morning and consolidated at lower levels in the afternoon.
PVC2601 contract opening price: 4568, highest price: 4575, lowest price: 4518, price difference: 57, decrease in open interest: 2694 lots, total open interest: 1021344 lots, settlement price: 4541, previous settlement price: 4561, down 20, daily trading volume: 589135 lots. Evaporated funds: 3.247 billion yuan, outflow: 32.94 million yuan.
Regional Price Overview: Yuan/ton
PVC Spot Market: The mainstream transaction price in the domestic PVC market ended its slight upward trend and shifted to a slight decline. Price comparisons show that prices fell by 20 yuan/ton in North China, 2 yuan/ton in East China, 30-40 yuan/ton in South China, 40 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 40 yuan/ton in Central China, and 10-30 yuan/ton in Southwest China.
Upstream PVC producers mostly maintained stable ex-factory prices, with some offering slight discounts of 20 yuan/ton for signed orders. Upstream factories have not frequently adjusted prices recently, maintaining a wait-and-see approach to selling at stable prices. Futures prices weakened slightly today, and spot market sentiment was unstable, with some prices declining slightly. Basis adjustments were not significant.
Specifically, the basis for the January contract was -(50, -70) in East China, -(0, -30) in South China, (-330, -340, -370) in North China, and -(160, -180, -300) for some sources in Southwest China. After the price decline, spot pricing offered some trading advantages, but the spot market remained sluggish, with purchases primarily based on immediate needs and no increase in buying enthusiasm.
PVC Market Outlook:
Futures Market: The PVC2601 futures contract saw a downward trend on Wednesday, with the low point lower than Monday and Tuesday. This price decline led to instability in spot market offers. Technically, the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) are narrowing. Although the price is still trading between the middle and upper bands, this narrowing trend may signal the start of a new move.
The daily KD and MACD lines show a narrowing golden cross trend, and the cultural commodity index also shows a narrowing adjustment trend. Currently, with the rollover of positions, there is increased market instability due to some exits and profit-taking. In the short term, the stability of the price above 4500, especially its performance around the 4500 level, should be observed.
In the spot market: Firstly, considering the current futures price movement, if the 4500 level is breached again, the 2601 contract is unlikely to perform well before its close, and the bottoming-out phenomenon triggered by the previous changes in the China Securities Regulatory Commission's (CSRC) trading positions may begin to falter. The spot market shows no significant changes.
Upstream PVC plant operating rates remain high, and even maintenance shutdowns are sporadic at this point in time, with most companies operating at normal capacity. Furthermore, upstream factories have not followed the recent upward trend in futures prices, and their ex-factory price adjustments have been relatively rational, primarily aimed at digesting inventory and meeting pre-Chinese New Year sales pressure.
Supply and demand are not sufficiently influencing prices. However, the current rollover of contracts adds uncertainty. Overall, the PVC spot market is likely to continue its narrow range-bound adjustment trend in the short term.
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