PVC: Futures positions increased significantly, the atmosphere changed, and the spot market weakened slightly(December 25, 2024)

December 26, 2024, 12:17 PM

TDD

5191

Guide

Highlights at a glance

This article provides a detailed analysis of PVC futures, highlighting key market data such as opening and settlement prices, trading volumes, and regional price shifts. The domestic PVC market experienced slight declines, with stable ex-factory prices from production enterprises. A forecast indicates short positions dominate, with limited bullish trends. Government bond issuance is expected to impact the market, while international oil prices may influence future trends.

PVC futures analysis: Opening price of V2505 contract on December 25: 5353, highest price: 5359, lowest price: 5294, position: 948184, settlement price: 5325, yesterday's settlement: 5334, down 9, daily trading volume: 723826 lots, deposited funds: 3.157 billion, capital inflow: 197 million.

Comprehensive price list of each region: yuan/ton

PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price of the domestic PVC market fell slightly, and the atmosphere in the market changed. From the comparison of valuations: the North China region fell by 10 yuan/ton, the high-end of the East China region fell by 20 yuan/ton, the South China region fell by 20-30 yuan/ton, the Northeast region was stable, the Central China region was stable, and the Southwest region was stable. Most of the upstream PVC production enterprises maintained stable ex-factory prices, and some ethylene-based enterprises slightly increased by 50 yuan/ton, but the feedback from the first-generation contract was flat, and no increase in positions was seen. The futures price weakened, and the atmosphere in the spot market was sluggish. The fixed price quotations of merchants in the market fell slightly in the afternoon, and the basis did not change much. Among them, the basis quotations in East China were 05 contracts-(250-300), 23-year supply quotations were 05 contracts-(350-400), South China 05 contracts-(200-250), North China 05 contracts-(550-580), and some supply sources in Southwest China ex-factory 05 contracts-(650-800). After the futures price fell, the enthusiasm for price inquiries increased accordingly, but it was limited to just-needed purchases.

PVC market forecast:
Spot: First of all, from the perspective of the operation of the futures price, it is still dominated by short positions. At present, the position of the 05 contract has increased significantly. The short-term bulls on the market cannot form a good trend. The entry of short positions has brought great pressure to the futures and spot markets, and the spot atmosphere has weakened. There has been no obvious change in the supply and demand level. As for domestic policy news, the recent focus is on the issuance of special government bonds with a total scale of 3 trillion yuan (411 billion US dollars) next year. This will be the largest scale in history to increase fiscal stimulus to boost the economy, but how to implement it is not expected that there will be any major policy actions before the Spring Festival. On the foreign market, international oil prices rose, reversing the previous day's decline, because the short-term outlook is good and the supply is expected to tighten slightly. Overall, the trend of narrow adjustment of PVC spot market prices in the short term remains unchanged.

Domestic PVC Index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic calcium carbide PVC spot index was 4985.11 on December 25, down 10.56, a range of 0.211%. The ethylene-based PVC spot index was 5255.80, down 12.30, or 0.233%. The calcium carbide-based index fell, and the ethylene-based index price difference was 270.69.