PVC: Futures presents a real negative column, the market continues to leave, and the spot market weakens slightly(December 17, 2024)
Analysis of PVC futures: Opening price of V2501 contract on December 17: 5063, highest price: 5074, lowest price: 5023, position: 557765, settlement price: 5051, yesterday's settlement: 5000, up 51, daily trading volume: 611656 lots, deposited funds: 1.964 billion, capital outflow: 176 million.
Comprehensive price list of each region: Yuan/ton
PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price in the domestic PVC market has slightly improved, and the low price in the market has decreased. From the comparison of valuations: the price in North China has increased by 20 yuan/ton, the price in East China has increased by 50 yuan/ton, the price in South China has increased by 50 yuan/ton, the price in Northeast China has remained stable, the price in Central China has remained stable, and the price in Southwest China has increased by 20-50 yuan/ton. Most upstream PVC manufacturers maintain stable quotations, and some companies have slightly raised their ex-factory quotations by 30-50 yuan/ton, including ethylene-based companies. The futures market price trend is mainly adjusted in a narrow range, but the low price has converged. Therefore, the spot market's fixed price quotation has increased slightly compared with yesterday, but the basis advantage has decreased. The basis quotation in East China is 05 contract-(300-440), 05 contract-(300) in South China, 05 contract-(560-600) in the North, and some sources in Southwest China are ex-factory 05 contract-(810). Although the two quotation methods coexist, transactions in the spot market are still dominated by rigid demand, and as the price-point advantage is not significant, the enthusiasm for inquiries in the market has declined.
From the perspective of futures: The night trading price of PVC2501 contract is mainly adjusted in a narrow range, with a small fluctuation range and lack of direction. The trend did not break through after the start of the morning session, and it continued. The price weakened slightly in the late afternoon session. The fluctuation range of 2501 contract was 5023-5074 throughout the day, with a spread of 51. The position of 01 contract was reduced by 46041 lots, and the current position was 559414 lots. The 2505 contract closed at 5347, with a position of 573080 lots.
PVC market forecast:
Futures: PVC2501 contract continued to reduce positions by 47690 lots, while the corresponding 2505 contract increased positions by 41198 lots. However, the current monthly difference of the contract still shows an obvious premium structure, and the monthly difference of the 2505-2501 contract has been maintained at more than 300 points. The emergence of a premium structure is not conducive to the transfer of long positions. Today's futures price fluctuations are relatively narrow. In a small range, the reduction of positions and the exit market are superimposed, and the guidance and capital movement are insufficient. The technical level shows that the three tracks of the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) of the 2501 contract have narrowed significantly. The reduction of positions in the exit market has caused the KD line and MACD line at the daily level to show a golden cross trend. In the short term, the futures price continues to transfer positions and change months, and the fluctuation performance in the range of 4950-5100 will continue to be observed.
Spot: We have mentioned the market situation of shifting positions and changing months in the early stage. The market situation of reducing positions and leaving the market may be out of the fundamentals. However, the current changes in futures prices continue to affect spot prices. The recent spot market prices have been in frequent ups and downs, but no matter what kind of fluctuation direction appears, it has never been able to trigger an improvement in transactions. On the one hand, the supply is stable at a high level, and on the other hand, downstream demand is always dominated by rigid demand, and it is difficult to involve the problem of stockpiling in the current period. The market situation presented by leaving the market once again refreshed the low point, which also caused the spot market price to refresh the annual low again in December. So far, there is still no plan to increase the intensity of economic stimulus in China, and there is no obvious policy implementation, and most commodities are running weakly. Overall, the price of the PVC spot market will still be mainly adjusted slightly.
Domestic PVC Index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic calcium carbide PVC spot index was 5004.21 on December 17, up 33.22, a range of 0.668%. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5278.45, up 31.12, a range of 0.593%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index price difference was 274.24.
