PVC: Futures rose in late trading, 05 positions climbed significantly, and spot prices were tentatively raised(December 23, 2024)
PVC futures analysis: On December 23, the opening price of the V2505 contract was 5318, the highest price was 5361, the lowest price was 5287, the position was 781961, the settlement price was 5324, yesterday's settlement was 5288, an increase of 36, daily trading volume was 701838 lots, the deposited funds were 2.933 billion, and the capital inflow was 201 million.
Comprehensive price list of each region: yuan/ton
PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price of the domestic PVC market was slightly adjusted, and some regions were tentatively raised. From the comparison of valuations: the North China region rose by 50 yuan/ton, the high-end of the East China region rose by 30 yuan/ton, the South China region rose by 50 yuan/ton, the low-end of the Northeast region rose by 20 yuan/ton, the Central China region rose by 20 yuan/ton, and the Southwest region rose by 50 yuan/ton. Most upstream PVC manufacturers maintain stable quotations, and some companies have sporadically raised their ex-factory prices by 20 yuan/ton, but the increase is not universal. The 05 contract on the futures market has adjusted narrowly, and the overall futures price has risen slightly in the afternoon. The spot market merchants have also raised their quoted prices compared with last Friday, and the basis has not changed much. Among them, the basis quoted in the East China region is 05 contract-(260-400), the 05 contract in the South China region is-(230-250), the 05 contract in the North region is-(550-570), and the ex-factory 05 contract of some sources in the Southwest region is-(650-810). Overall, the low-end price of the spot market has decreased at the beginning of the week, but there is a certain room for negotiation in the actual transaction. The trading atmosphere in the spot market has not improved, and the demand is mainly rigid.
From the perspective of futures: The night market price of PVC2505 contract is mainly in a narrow range, and the fluctuation range of the futures price is small. The trend of the futures price has not changed much since the beginning of the morning, and the trend of small-scale consolidation remains unchanged. The futures price has risen in the late afternoon. The 2505 contract fluctuated in the range of 5287-5361 throughout the day, with a spread of 74. The 05 contract increased its position by 48092 lots, and the current position was 781961 lots. The 2501 contract closed at 5046, with a position of 346628 lots.
PVC market forecast:
Futures: The PVC2505 contract futures market has seen a relatively obvious increase in positions, and has been in the process of increasing positions significantly recently. At present, the 05 contract has officially become the main contract for the shift of positions. Under the alternation of the main contracts, both long and short positions have the need to shift positions, but the monthly spread of the 2501-2505 contract has always remained above 300 points. In terms of the transaction of the 05 contract, 28.3% of the long positions were compared with 24.4% of the short positions. In terms of the increased positions, the long positions are still slightly better, which is also the reason why the futures price rose at the end of the Monday period. Technically, the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) of the 2505 contract have an opening trend. In the short term, the futures price may be observed in the middle track range of 5260-5400.
Spot: On Monday, the 05 contract officially became the main contract, and the corresponding spot market basis quotation turned to 05, and once again faced the trend of widening basis due to the existence of the monthly difference of the contract. On Monday, based on the slight increase in the futures price, some companies tentatively raised the ex-factory price, and traders also made adjustments. The low-end price of the spot market decreased, but there was no significant change in the spot market transaction. In terms of PVC fundamentals, the price of calcium carbide fell, and the price of semi-coal at the cost port of calcium carbide also fell significantly. The supply and demand level of PVC still maintains the previous state. The price adjustment of the futures and spot markets is not much guided by the fundamentals. In the short term, if there is a lack of policy support, it is expected that the spot market will still maintain a small adjustment.
Domestic PVC Index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic calcium carbide PVC spot index was 4984.84 on December 23, up 38.49, a range of 0.778%. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5256.57, up 32.57, a range of 0.623%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index price difference was 271.73.
