PVC Futures & Spot: Narrow Swing
PVC futures analysis: On July 15, the night trading price of PVC2509 contract adjusted narrowly. Although the fluctuation range was small, it was mostly above 5000. The price weakened slightly in the early trading, repeating yesterday's market, but there was no rise in the late trading.
V2509 contract opening price: 5010, highest price: 5027, lowest price: 4952, spread 75, increased position 2988 lots, position: 959779 lots, settlement price: 4991, yesterday's settlement: 4985, up 6, daily trading volume: 982125 lots, deposited funds: 3.342 billion, capital outflow: 13.04 million.
Comprehensive price list of each region: yuan/ton
PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price of the domestic PVC market is temporarily stable, and the quotation is mainly based on the downward trend yesterday afternoon. From the comparison of valuations: North China is stable, East China is stable, South China has dropped by 10 yuan/ton, Northeast China is stable, Central China is stable, and Southwest China is stable. Most of the ex-factory prices of upstream PVC manufacturers have not seen significant adjustments, and some have slightly reduced by 50 yuan/ton to stimulate shipments.
The futures market continues to fluctuate in a narrow range, but the trend is not good during the daytime. The spot market's one-price offer is similar to yesterday afternoon, and the basis offer has expanded to a certain extent. Among them, the basis offer in East China is 09 contract (60-170), 09 contract in South China (50-100), 09 contract in the North (380-450-480), and some sources in the Southwest are 09 contract-(410-460-570).
At present, in the relatively high price range, there is little advantage in both the one-price and the point price, so the downstream is in a wait-and-see mentality, the enthusiasm for taking goods is poor, and the spot market transaction is light.
PVC market forecast:
Futures: The operation of PVC2509 contract price is similar to yesterday. Both of them are low points with a slight decline in the daytime market price, but today's position has only increased slightly, showing a cross star negative column throughout the day, and the fluctuation range of the price is also similar to yesterday. And the operation of the price is just as we expected, there is still a certain pressure above 5000.
There is a certain differentiation in the technical closing line, among which the three tracks of the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) are still opening upward, but the KD line trend at the daily level is relatively anxious, and the two lines cross, and the MACD line continues to show a golden cross trend.
At present, the operation of the futures price lacks a certain direction, and continues to maintain a high sideways state. In the short term, the operation of the futures price continues to observe the fluctuation range of 4930-5050 between the middle and upper tracks.
Spot: First of all, let's look at the recent strong operation of the prices in the futures and spot markets, which mainly comes from the guidance of news (National Development and Reform Commission Urban and Small Town Reform and Development Center: Taking the "two heavy" and "two new" funds as the starting point, increase investment in key areas of new urbanization), and the futures price is pushed to around 5,000, and the spot price has completely broken away from the low range and adjusted within the range after the rise, but the high price suppresses demand and the enthusiasm of downstream purchases.
The fundamental fundamentals of PVC have not seen major changes, lacking substantial support. At the same time, it is difficult for the prices in the futures and spot markets to continue to break through, and they are currently trapped in a narrow adjustment stage with a dilemma of rising and falling.
On the foreign market, international oil prices fell, and investors weighed the new threat of the US President to impose sanctions on Russian oil buyers, which may affect global oil supply, and investors are still worried about Trump's tariffs. Overall, in the short term, the spot price of PVC may continue to maintain a narrow adjustment mode.
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