PVC Market Analysis Sept 22
PVC Futures Analysis: On September 22nd, the PVC2601 contract opened low and rose in the evening session, with a slight increase before adjusting within a narrow range. The price saw a second upward move in the morning session, exceeding the overnight high, but the upward trend was difficult to sustain and turned downward, trading sideways at a low level in the afternoon.
The PVC2601 contract opened at 4955, reached a high of 4989, and a low of 4918, with a spread of 71. Opening volume increased by 167 lots, bringing the total open interest to 1,126,210 lots. The settlement price was 4955, compared to yesterday's settlement price of 4949, up 6%. Daily trading volume was 824,910 lots, with deposited funds of 3.893 billion yuan and outflows of 8.88 million yuan.
Regional Comprehensive Price List: Yuan/ton
PVC Spot Market: The mainstream transaction prices in the domestic PVC market continued to adjust within a narrow range, with some weakness in the afternoon. Comparing price assessments: North China and East China remained stable, South China saw an increase of 10-20 yuan/ton, Northeast China saw a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, Central China remained stable, and Southwest China remained stable.
Ex-factory prices at upstream PVC manufacturers mostly remained stable, with some companies slightly reducing prices by 20 yuan/ton to boost shipments. However, chlor-alkali producers generally have significant factory inventories. Futures markets were trading sideways, while spot markets saw small, flexible price adjustments across regions, with both spot and fixed prices coexisting. Basis spreads widened slightly.
Basis spreads for the 01 contract in East China were quoted at -110, -170, -240, South China at -100, -200, and North China at -400, -450, -480. For some sources in Southwest China, the 01 contract ranged from -300, 480, to -660. On Monday, the spot market maintained a wait-and-see attitude, with downstream buyers showing little enthusiasm, and trading remained light.
PVC Market Forecast:
Futures: PVC 2601 futures prices are trading sideways within the upper band, with resistance levels at the upper band in place. The price adjustment is relatively directionless, with little guidance from fundamentals or news. Entering this week, there's still no clear policy turning point, with the golden September and silver October already halfway through. Technically, the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, and 2) are beginning to flatten.
While the daily KD and MACD lines continue to form a golden cross, the gap between them is narrowing. Furthermore, open interest was minimal on Monday, largely reflecting a rotation of short positions by speculative investors. Judging from the current market trend, futures prices are unlikely to escape a narrow range in the short term. We will observe fluctuations within the 4900-5000 range.
Spot: At the midday close, the main domestic futures contracts saw mixed gains and losses, with the cultural commodities index weakening in the afternoon. Currently, within the chlor-alkali industry chain, calcium carbide is the only one experiencing a golden September and silver October market, with prices rising repeatedly, with cumulative monthly increases reaching 250-300 yuan/ton. PVC spot market prices have been experiencing minor corrections, with a weak downward trend seen in the first half of the month.
Compared to the same period last year, policy initiatives were implemented in the latter half of the month. Therefore, expectations remain for price trends in both the futures and spot markets, but supply and demand are exerting significant pressure on prices. Therefore, in the short term, the spot market is likely to continue its narrow range of adjustments, with price fluctuations likely dependent on policy shifts.
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