PVC Market Trend Outlook
PVC Futures Analysis: On November 19th, the PVC2601 contract saw narrow price fluctuations in the night session, with a relatively small range of price movement. Prices initially fell slightly in the morning, breaking below the psychological level. Prices rebounded slightly in the afternoon but remained within a low range.
The PVC2601 contract opened at 4529, reached a high of 4535, a low of 4479, a spread of 91, a decrease of 4801 lots in open interest, a total open interest of 1,457,819 lots, a settlement price of 4508 (previous settlement: 4552, down 44), and a daily trading volume of 873,095 lots. Total idle funds were 4.584 billion yuan, with an outflow of 43.76 million yuan.
Regional Price Overview: Yuan/Ton
PVC Spot Market: Domestic PVC market mainstream transaction prices continued to decline, and market sentiment weakened. Price comparisons show that prices fell by 30 yuan/ton in North China, 40-50 yuan/ton in East China, 50-60 yuan/ton in South China, 20 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 20 yuan/ton in Central China, and 30 yuan/ton in Southwest China.
Upstream PVC producers generally lowered their ex-factory prices slightly, by 20-30-50 yuan/ton, and market sentiment weakened significantly. Futures prices continued their downward trend, breaking through key psychological levels.
Spot market sentiment was negative, with offers continuing to decline. After the futures price drop, the basis narrowed slightly. Specifically, the basis for the January contract was -(30, -80) in East China, -(0, -30 or +30) in South China, -(350, -370, -380) in North China, and -(190, -320) for some sources in Southwest China. Although both pricing methods coexist and the basis offers a certain advantage in transactions, downstream buyers are hesitant, struggling to purchase despite the low prices.
PVC Market Forecast:
Futures Market: Following yesterday's continuous decline, the PVC2601 futures contract continued its downward trend today, breaking through the psychological level of 4500. No clear support was found at 4500, and the price broke through smoothly. Within the lower price range below this level, some short positions were closed for profit, leading to a slight rebound. Judging from the current price movement, the initial anxiety has subsided; the decline encountered no resistance and instead saw a slight rise aided by short covering.
Whether from a policy, news, or PVC fundamentals perspective, current support for both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges is insufficient. The weak price trend is likely to continue. In the short term, observe the price action within the 4450-4540 range, and in the medium term, be wary of the historical low of 4405.
In the spot market: PVC prices are weak. Although overall commodity sentiment is poor, the trend in both the PVC futures and spot markets is increasingly sluggish. Attention should be paid to the support from PVC fundamentals in the near term.
Apart from India's cancellation of BIS certification, there are no other significant guiding factors. The off-season characteristics are evident in both supply and demand, with downstream demand expected to continue weakening.
Conversely, supply remains stable and high, and the mass production of new capacity ensures a continued ample supply situation that is unlikely to change in the short term. Social inventories are high, and upstream producers are also facing pressure to reduce their factory inventories.
The decline in spot prices has not translated into better transactions. In fact, with both short- and medium-term prospects sluggish, downstream buyers are adopting a wait-and-see approach. The recent continuous decline in market prices has reduced the profits of leading traders, even resulting in slight losses. Overall, spot prices are likely to continue to adjust at low levels in the short term.
Our platform connects hundreds of verified Chinese chemical suppliers with buyers worldwide, promoting transparent transactions, better business opportunities, and high-value partnerships. Whether you are looking for bulk commodities, specialty chemicals, or customized procurement services, TDD-Global is trustworthy to be your fist choice.
