PVC: spot price fell
PVC futures analysis: On July 16, the night trading price of PVC2509 contract showed a slight downward trend as a whole, with a small fluctuation range. The trend of the night trading continued after the start of the morning trading, but then the futures price fell, and adjusted narrowly at a low level in the afternoon until the end, and the futures price weakened throughout the day. V2509 contract opening price: 4978, highest price: 4978, lowest price: 4922, spread 56, increased position 22762 lots, position: 982541 lots, settlement price: 4950, yesterday's settlement: 4991, down 41, daily trading volume: 819036 lots, deposited funds: 3.394 billion, capital inflow: 51.07 million.
Comprehensive price list of each region: yuan/ton
PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price of the domestic PVC market fell, and the decline became more obvious in the afternoon. From the comparison of valuations: North China fell by 20 yuan/ton, East China fell by 20-30 yuan/ton, South China fell by 50 yuan/ton, Northeast China fell by 30 yuan/ton, Central China fell by 20 yuan/ton, and Southwest China fell by 10-30 yuan/ton. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC manufacturers remained stable, and some began to slightly reduce by 20-30 yuan/ton to promote transactions, and the atmosphere in the market changed.
The downward trend of futures prices weakened, and the spot market's fixed price quotations were lowered accordingly, and the decline widened in the afternoon. However, after the futures price fell, the point price transaction showed a certain advantage, and the basis was slightly adjusted.
Among them, the basis quotations in East China were 09 contracts (70-170), 09 contracts in South China (50-100), 09 contracts in the North (380-450), and some sources in the Southwest were 09 contracts (250-460-560). There is a large price difference in the Southwest for different brands and warehouses.
After the prices of the two markets went down, the number of transactions increased compared with the previous point price, but most of them were mainly for replenishment of just-in-time demand.
PVC market outlook:
Futures: The futures price of PVC2509 contract showed a certain downward trend, among which the market increased slightly. Although the trading activity throughout the day was not high, the return of small shorts led to a downward trend in the futures price. In terms of transactions, the short opening was 26.6 compared with the long opening of 22.2%.
The increase in short opening was also the main reason for the downward trend of the futures price. In addition, the low point of the futures price broke through the middle track position and went down. The technical closing line also changed to a certain extent.
Among them, the three tracks of the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) turned flat, the KD line at the daily level showed a dead cross trend first, and the distance between the two lines of the MACD line was shortened. Overall, the increase in the futures price may cause the futures price to move out of the upper range of 5000 in the short term and enter the middle track range of 4880-4990 after the decline.
Spot: First of all, judging from the downward trend of futures prices today, it seems to have broken away from the upper high range, and the spot market has also seen a certain downward correction today, and the decline in some areas is relatively large.
Compared with the previous high period, the enthusiasm for price inquiry in the spot market today has increased. At present, it remains to be seen whether the high-level sideways trading that appeared under the guidance of previous news has officially ended. The fundamentals of PVC have not changed significantly. The constraints of high supply, weak demand and high inventory always exist, and the supply pressure is relatively obvious.
In the foreign market, international oil prices have continued to fall as the US President asked Russia to end the Ukrainian war within 50 days to avoid sanctions. This news eased people's concerns about oil supply. At the same time, the market will turn its focus back to the problem of oversupply that may occur after the peak demand season in summer. Overall, the spot price of PVC will continue to adjust in a narrow range in the short term.
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