PVC Weekly Report: Futures performance is weak, shorts enter the market, 05 positions increase significantly, and spot prices adjust narrowly during the week(December 26, 2024)

December 27, 2024, 2:46 PM

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This article analyzes the domestic PVC market from December 19 to December 26, 2024, highlighting price fluctuations, supply-demand dynamics, and future expectations. The week saw narrow price adjustments, influenced by futures contracts, reduced operating loads, and weak demand. The article also discusses the impact of environmental regulations and upcoming fiscal measures on the market outlook.

I. Analysis of the domestic PVC market
1. Overview of the domestic PVC market
This week (2024.12.19-2024.12.26) The comprehensive comparison of spot market prices during the week showed a trend of narrow adjustment. Because the spot price rose first and then fell, the comprehensive price comparison showed a small fluctuation, but the atmosphere in the spot market weakened in the later period. Influencing factors during the week: 1. The main contract futures transfer and month change were completed, and the 05 contract was changed to the main contract. There was a certain trend of small long opening in the early part of the week, and the futures price also formed a certain rebound and small increase. The corresponding spot also followed the upward trend, but the market cooled down on Wednesday and Thursday, the mood changed, and there was a short opening on the market. 2. At the supply and demand level of PVC, the operating load of PVC devices decreased slightly during the week. Environmental protection in some areas affected the start-up, and there were also certain maintenance plans. There was no obvious change in demand, and small orders for rigid needs were still the main purchases. 3. From the perspective of cost ports, the fourth round of price cuts for lignite, a product of the industrial chain, were carried out during the week. The price of calcium carbide also showed a certain downward trend during the week. The crude oil port changed relatively little due to the coming of Christmas. 4. The focus of the news level is on the special government bonds with a total scale of 3 trillion yuan (411 billion US dollars) to be issued next year. In the early Monday and Tuesday of the week, commodities also expected new fiscal stimulus measures. 5. In terms of exports, the market has weak expectations for India's BIS certification and anti-dumping policies. Overall, the week showed a small adjustment trend under the influence of small factors. From the perspective of valuation comparison, the North China region fell by 5 yuan/ton, the East China region rose by 10 yuan/ton, the South China region rose by 15 yuan/ton, the Northeast region rose by 30 yuan/ton, the Central China region rose by 5 yuan/ton, and the Southwest region rose by 10 yuan/ton.

2. Forecast for the future market
Spot: The current supply and demand level can provide little support. Although the PVC start-up also changes every week, it does not have much direct effect on the price. The demand side continues to maintain the rigid demand as the main demand, and small orders are placed at low levels. The demand enthusiasm has obvious off-season characteristics, especially in the northern region. The start-up rate of downstream pipes, profiles and other enterprises has declined. There is an expectation of continued weakening of the demand port, and the Spring Festival is earlier than in previous years. It is expected to start showing a pre-holiday market in January. The fundamentals of PVC can provide less support for prices. At present, the big changes in commodities are mostly stimulated by policy ports and market news. The foreign market is closed for Christmas, and the financial market trading is slightly light before the market is closed. Overall, in the short term, with the relatively weak fundamentals of PVC, the spot price may continue to be adjusted in a narrow range.

3. Domestic PVC Index
According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic calcium carbide PVC spot index was 4994.18 on December 26, up 8.62 from the same period last week, an increase of 0.173%. The ethylene-based PVC spot index is 5254.77, up 434 from the same period last week, a rate of 0.083%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index rose, and the price difference between the ethylene-calcium carbide index was 270.59.