Rubber Market: No Clear Driver, Steady Oscillation
Market review: The natural rubber market lacks effective drivers recently, and rubber prices are fluctuating and weak. On the supply side, rainfall in domestic and foreign production areas disturbs the output of new rubber, raw material prices remain high, and rubber prices still have bottom support.
Under the tariff policy, the weakening trend of demand is accelerating, and the inventory of tire companies continues to grow, and the demand side is expected to perform poorly. The supply and demand sides have not yet formed an effective driving point, and rubber prices are mostly fluctuating and weak.
1: The output of new rubber is small in the early stage of harvesting, and the cost side is still supported
Foreign production areas: At present, the output of new rubber in the Thai production area is small in the early stage of harvesting, and the recent frequent rain disturbances have caused the price of rubber to continue to rise. The price of cup rubber is constrained by weak buying at home and abroad, and has fallen month-on-month.
At present, the supply volume is lower than expected, and the factory's raw material inventory reserves are different, maintaining normal production and long-term delivery.
The Vietnamese production area has entered the seasonal increment stage, but the precipitation weather has increased, and the rhythm of fresh rubber is limited. However, local rubber processing plants have a demand for delivery, and the mood of rushing to harvest raw materials has heated up, and the overall purchasing price has risen.
Domestic production areas: The Yunnan production area has been rainy and cloudy, which has affected the rubber tapping process. The concentrated increase of raw materials has been delayed, but the overall raw material output has maintained an increasing trend. In addition, the recent weakening of spot prices has caused a wide downward adjustment in the purchase price.
The weather conditions in the Hainan production area have improved. In addition, some rubber forests on the western line have just started tapping, and the rubber tapping work on the island has been promoted.
The output of raw materials has increased month-on-month, but it is still lower than the same period last year. The overall increase is slow. In order to ensure its own delivery and production needs, the local concentrated milk processing plant has maintained a price increase for glue purchase.
2. Tire companies' inventory continues to increase, and production and sales pressure remains unchanged
Most companies of semi-steel tires have gradually entered a stable state of production, with a slight increase overall. However, in order to control inventory growth, some companies have slightly reduced their production schedules, limiting the increase in the overall start-up rate. The company's shipment performance has not improved significantly, and inventory continues to increase.
Some sample companies of full-steel tires said that foreign trade orders have increased, and the production schedule has increased slightly. In addition, the production capacity of most enterprises has been restored, which has led to an increase in overall production.
After the exhibition, some enterprises said that shipments have improved slightly, but the impact on the destocking of enterprises is limited, and the inventory of finished products continues to increase slightly.
3. Inventory of natural rubber, dark and light colors, shows a double decline trend
In the short term, the inventory of natural rubber still shows a downward trend, with both light and dark colors falling, and the decline in dark colors is slightly larger. The average spot price of Thai mixed goods rebounded slightly from the previous period due to the decline in inventory and other factors.
4. Market Forecast
The heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian production areas continues to affect supply output, but the supply is expected to increase after the heavy rain in the production areas, and the pressure on raw materials may gradually appear.
The operation of tire companies is in a state of recovery and improvement, and the pull on rubber prices is limited without obvious improvement in terminal demand. In the short term, it is difficult for rubber itself to have a clear driving direction, or it may continue to fluctuate with the macro market and policy, and continue the oscillation pattern.
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