Rubber Market Weekly Analysis Update

1. Rubber Spot Market Analysis

This week, rubber spot prices continued to fluctuate, with spot quotes adjusting within the market range. The market center of gravity was unstable, and holders' bids were flexible. High raw material prices provided strong support; spot inventories continued to decline, and fundamental support remained strong. Combined with a positive macroeconomic outlook, rubber prices are expected to remain firm in the short term.

This week, natural rubber latex spot market quotes fell slightly, with traders actively bidding. Improved weather in Hainan's production areas has increased raw material supply, leading to a decline in rubber procurement prices. Hainan's state-owned processing plants have lowered their ex-factory pickup rates, and some holders' bids in sales areas have followed suit. Downstream product manufacturers are generally adopting a wait-and-see approach, with some inquiries and negotiations underway, and transactions driven by strong demand.

Market Forecast:

1. Rainy weather will continue to disrupt prices, leading to a gradual release of raw materials.
2. Operating rates at sample tire manufacturers are expected to improve in the next cycle.
3. Inventories in Qingdao, China continue to decline.
4. Exchange rates, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and other factors.

2. Natural Rubber Supply Analysis

2.1. Thailand

A new typhoon arrived in Thailand during the period, and heavy rainfall disrupted rubber tapping operations. Flooding occurred in parts of northern Thailand, leading to tight raw material supplies and factories purchasing at high prices. Average raw material prices continued to rise. Thai factories maintained raw material inventories ranging from 30 days to 60-90 days, with inventory replenished gradually as production paced. Finished product inventories were low, maintaining normal production and long-term shipments. Some factories had delayed shipments. International tire manufacturers were slow to purchase, while domestic buying activity was subdued, resulting in average transaction volume.

2.2. Vietnam

This week, weather in Vietnam improved compared to last week. Rubber tapping operations were disrupted by intermittent rainfall, resulting in a tight raw material supply, but output showed a slow recovery. Processors actively purchased raw materials to secure orders, supporting stable to slightly strong prices.

2.3. Yunnan

Rainfall decreased in Yunnan during the week, accelerating rubber production. Standard rubber mills began replenishing their inventory, increasing their enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Some mills increased prices to secure raw material, and the operation of full-milk production lines improved significantly. Thickened milk factories are gradually returning to normal operations. It's reported that most factories are maintaining daily rubber production at around 200 tons.

2.4. Hainan Production Area

This week, weather conditions in Hainan's rubber production area improved, and rubber tapping operations have gradually resumed. Raw material production and release are gradually returning to normal. However, due to weak orders and profits, local processing plants have shown a decline in their enthusiasm for restocking high-priced raw materials, resulting in a decline in raw material purchase prices.

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