Rubber Supply Demand Dynamics
Index
On November 11th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $1835/ton, down $15 from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Rainfall continues to disrupt latex production in southern Thailand, leading to a month-on-month price increase. In the northeast, rubber tapping is proceeding normally, and factories have strong expectations for increased supply later in the year.
The rush to buy cup lump rubber at higher prices has cooled, resulting in a month-on-month price decrease and a widening price gap between latex and cup lump rubber. In Vietnam, typhoon-affected areas continue to experience rain, with flooding in the central and northern regions and excessive rainfall in the south, slowing the pace of raw material supply.
During the peak production season, supply is unlikely to increase significantly, and processing plants are maintaining moderate procurement to ensure order fulfillment, supporting relatively firm raw material prices.
Domestically: Yunnan experienced above-average rainfall, impacting rubber tapping operations and keeping raw material prices firm. In Hainan, favorable weather conditions allowed tapping to resume, resulting in normal raw material production. Local processing plants faced significant cost pressures and were less inclined to bid higher prices for raw materials, focusing instead on replenishing inventory as needed.
On the demand side: Most enterprises are currently operating stably, maintaining a stable supply. However, reports indicate that some all-steel tire manufacturers are considering production shutdowns, which will drag down overall capacity utilization. Shipments are slow, inventories are relatively high, and overall finished product inventory reduction is insufficient.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Forecast
Today, the main rubber futures contract continued its oscillating pattern, with spot offers following the narrow range. Domestic production areas are gradually entering a period of reduced output, impacting peak season supply. Domestic raw material prices remained firm, but downstream inquiries were weak, with buyers selectively replenishing at lower prices. Actual trading was sluggish, and rubber prices entered a period of range-bound consolidation.
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