September 24th China PE Market Analysis
Domestic Petrochemical Inventories: Polyolefin inventories from the two oil-based oil companies reached 630,000 tons, down 40,000 tons from yesterday.
PE Spot Market Analysis: Today, domestic PE market prices showed a weak and stable trend. In North China, only low-pressure wire drawing grades remained stable, while prices for linear, high-pressure, and low-pressure film grades all saw some adjustments, fluctuating between 10 and 20 yuan/ton.
In East China, only linear grades saw a price decline, while prices for high-pressure, low-pressure film, and low-pressure wire drawing grades remained stable. In South China, prices for linear, high-pressure, low-pressure wire drawing, and low-pressure film grades all remained unchanged from yesterday. On the supply side, PE manufacturers' quotes showed a differentiated adjustment pattern.
Ex-factory prices for mainstream grades remained stable, with some companies lowering their prices by 13 to 200 yuan/ton due to destocking or competitive considerations. Others raised their prices for specific scarce or in-demand grades. On the demand side, the downstream market continued to be characterized by "strong demand" and "buying at low prices," with an overall cautious attitude and a lack of willingness to proactively stock up.
Against this backdrop, market transactions are concentrating on low-priced markets, dragging down certain regions and causing a downward shift in market prices, resulting in a subdued overall trading atmosphere.
PE Spot Price Forecast: Regarding futures, the L2601 contract saw a slight upward shift in its center of gravity in the evening session, with narrow fluctuations in the morning session and consolidation in the afternoon session. On the supply side, Liaoyang Petrochemical's 35,000-ton annual PE unit is scheduled to restart today. This, coupled with suppliers' concentrated destocking efforts, has significantly increased supply-side pressure. With no clear positive macroeconomic news yet, the market lacks upward momentum.
A wait-and-see attitude has dominated, and active buying is subdued. On the demand side, terminal factories are cautious in their purchasing approach, with limited acceptance. Overall purchasing activity is weak, driven primarily by slow-moving, essential demand, and insufficient market support. Both supply and demand are characterized by increasing supply pressure and weak demand support. Current factory capacity is insufficient to absorb the pressure from the supply side.
With the approach of the "Double Spring Festival and Chinese New Year" holidays, downstream companies are primarily focused on consuming existing inventories. The likelihood of a concentrated surge in restocking demand is low, making it difficult for demand to effectively support the market. Overall, the polyethylene market is expected to remain weak and consolidate in the short term.
Mainstream PE Market Quotes:
PE Futures Analysis: September 24th, L2601 Opening Price: 7117, High: 7165, Low: 7109, Open Interest: 571,775, Settlement Price: 7138, Yesterday's Settlement: 7108, Up 30%, Daily Trading Volume: 191,081 Contracts, Deposited Capital: 2.859 Billion, Capital Outflow: 74.22 Million.
Domestic PE Index: According to Tuduoduo data, on September 24th, the domestic HDPE spot index was 7614, down 1; the LDPE film spot index was 9433, down 3; and the LLDPE spot index was 7253, down 1.
Shenhua Auction Statistics: Today's auction volume was 475.275 tons, and today's trading volume was 450 tons.
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