STR20 Rubber Market Update
Index
On November 24th, the Qingdao STR20 natural rubber price index was $1840/ton, up $5/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
Internationally: Northeast Thailand maintained peak production, while heavy rainfall in southern Thailand affected tapping. Some factories went to the northeast to purchase raw materials, leading to an upward trend in latex and cup lump prices. In Vietnam, weather improved, with reduced rainfall in the main producing areas, optimizing tapping conditions. The peak season supply rhythm is gradually returning to normal production levels, but sporadic localized rainfall still disrupts raw material supply.
Domestically: Raw material prices in Yunnan production areas remained relatively stable. Rainfall for most of the week brought rubber tapping to a standstill, while secondary wholesalers showed little willingness to sell, resulting in a "high price, low volume" situation in the market. In Hainan production areas, localized rainfall and strong winds increased disruption to rubber tapping operations. Furthermore, as temperatures began to drop, the dry content of latex declined, generally falling between 26-29%, thus suppressing overall raw material output.
On the demand side: It is understood that some maintenance-undergoing enterprises have resumed operations, and production is gradually recovering, which is conducive to a recovery in the overall capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire manufacturers. However, overall orders are insufficient, and after resuming operations, enterprises may still maintain production control to manage inventory growth.
Spot and Futures Price Overview
Market Outlook
Today, the main rubber futures contract maintained a slightly bullish and volatile pattern. Spot prices followed the futures market with a slight increase. Domestic production areas are gradually entering the off-season for production reduction and tapping.
Meanwhile, continued rainfall in southern Thailand and Vietnam is disrupting the market. Upstream raw material prices are more likely to rise than fall, providing strong support on the cost side. Downstream purchasing intentions are relatively weak, with most purchases focused on replenishing only essential needs. Overall market trading activity is moderate. It is expected that in the short term, without strong positive stimuli, rubber prices may fluctuate within a range.
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