The Supply Side Disturbance was Obvious in 2024, Laying a High Level of Rubber at the Beginning of 2025
In 2024, the Thai mixed rubber market in China's Shandong market is on a steady upward trend, with an obvious overall upward drive. Since mid-March, spot prices have been maintained at a high level in the past three years.
At the beginning of 2024, the opening price remained relatively high, as far as the supply side was concerned, the supply remained relatively tight at the beginning of the year, the cost support was strong and the processing plant's demand for stocking in advance had driven the price of raw materials to rise, but it coincided with the Spring Festival holiday.Capital hedging mood was heating up, and the inventory in Qingdao was still high, supporting the rubber price to maintain a volatile trend. After entering March, it was also the speculation of storage news and the expected heating up of high temperature and drought in the production area, the downstream production was high, and the market was released in a concentrated manner.
The two-way positive resonance pushed up the rubber price continuously. Successively entering the early stage of rubber tapping in the world's main producing areas, high temperature superimposed on drought disturbed the cutting process, and the supply of new rubber in the early stage of rubber cutting in Thailand was insufficient. The price of raw materials rose to a high level in recent years, and the arrival of overseas natural rubber was small. Qingdao inventory and China's social inventory showed a destocking cycle, superimposed synthetic rubber upstream and downstream centralized destocking to boost natural rubber, so higher rubber price trend is obvious. Rubber prices began to fall in a narrow range in November, and the domestic Yunnan producing areas entered the cut-off period, and the price of raw materials was supported significantly, and the overseas weather was gradually improved. The domestic natural rubber inventory continued to show a tired inventory, all-steel tires into the seasonal consumption off-season, and the demand was less than expected to a certain extent to restrict the rebound of rubber prices, with the resurgence of domestic storage rumors, rubber prices still maintain a high level of fluctuation.
At the end of 2024, rubber maintained a high state, laying a high start for the start of rubber in 2025. Looking forward to 2025, the global economy is expected to continue the steady recovery trend in 2024. None of the world's major institutions predicts economic growth in 2025 lower than that of 2024. The favorable macro support at home and abroad is relatively obvious, and it also lays a good macro atmosphere for the rubber market in 2025. Looking at the supply and demand side, weather disturbances will still exist next year, and problems such as rainfall or drought in the early stage of cutting will have more or less an impact on the supply side. On the demand side, the national subsidy policy continued to be released, which stimulated domestic sales to a certain extent, while tire exports still showed a slight growth rate, and the demand situation was also expected to improve. On the whole, the bullish sentiment in 2025 is relatively strong, and it is expected that the price of rubber of 2025 will remain relatively high, but the trend of shock during the period may be inevitable.
