Tire Demand Weakens Rubber Trend

November 18, 2025, 9:49 AM

TDD-global

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Guide

Highlights at a glance

On November 17, the Qingdao STR20 natural rubber price index rose to $1,850/ton, up $10 from the previous day. Global supply disruptions persist: heavy rains in southern Thailand and Vietnam are limiting latex output, while improved weather in northeastern Thailand is accelerating supply. In China, Yunnan’s raw material prices remain stable despite tapping slowdowns at high altitudes, while Hainan faces production delays due to rain. Demand remains soft—semi-steel tire production is steady but lacks strong orders, and all-steel tire makers have cut output due to order and inventory pressures. Futures prices gained amid tight regional supplies, and spot prices followed. Looking ahead, cool weather in Yunnan and ongoing rains in Thailand may sustain high raw material costs. Despite higher overseas shipments, weak end-user demand could reduce downstream operating rates. With no major bullish drivers, natural rubber prices are likely to trade sideways in the near term, maintaining seasonal inventory buildup trends.

Index

On November 17th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $1850/ton, up $10/ton from the previous trading day.

Market Analysis

Futures Market:

Spot Market

Supply Side:

Internationally: Increased rainfall in southern Thailand is affecting peak season supply, keeping latex prices high; improved weather in the northeast is accelerating supply release; continued rainfall in Vietnam is disrupting production, with flooding in the central and northern regions combined with persistent rain in the south, restricting the pace of raw material supply during the peak season. Factories are actively purchasing to ensure order fulfillment, pushing up raw material prices and increasing cost pressures on processing plants.

Domestically: Raw material prices in Yunnan production areas are generally stable, with tapping gradually ceasing in high-altitude areas, including some small-scale tapping operations that had just started; localized rainfall in Hainan production areas is increasing disruption to tapping operations, putting significant cost pressure on local processing plants, which are mainly replenishing raw materials as needed.

Demand Side: It is understood that the operation of semi-steel tire manufacturers has been relatively stable recently, but overall order volume is insufficient, and sales pressure remains. The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers has declined, influenced by both external factors and pressure to reduce production and control inventory due to shipping pressures.

Futures and Spot Prices Overview

Market Forecast

Today, the main rubber futures contract saw an upward trend, with spot offers following suit. Cooling weather is expected in Yunnan, and the rainy season continues in southern Thailand, suggesting raw material prices may remain high.

Stronger-than-expected increases in overseas shipments, coupled with insufficient support from end-user demand, suggest further declines in downstream operating rates. Natural rubber is expected to maintain its seasonal inventory accumulation. Without strong positive catalysts, the natural rubber market is expected to see prices fluctuate within a range in the short term.

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