Analysis of China's Fuel Ethanol Supply and Demand in 2023

In 2023, the total domestic fuel ethanol production capacity was 7.2 million tons/year (including edible overlapping production capacity), and the domestic fuel ethanol production in the first half of the year was driven by profits, and the enthusiasm of large factories to produce fuel in the first half of the year was higher, with a total output of 2 million tons from January to June. In April, there were many shutdowns of fuel enterprises, and the output was low. Heilongjiang Hongzhan Jixian factory began to start up in April, the two lines were shut down for a total of 21 days, Jilin fuel was shut down for about a month, and SDIC Jidong began to shut down in early April to start production in September. SDIC Tieling was in normal production, and Helen was shut down for 1 month and 12 days in April. The output in the second half of the year has declined, especially since October, the downstream consumption of fuel ethanol has declined, while the supply performance was sufficient, the market price continued to weaken, enterprises began to switch to edible, and the overall output declined, with a total output of 1.85 million tons from July to December. In 2023, China produced a total of 3.85 million tons of fuel ethanol

From January to December 2023, the downstream consumption of fuel ethanol reached about 3.75 million tons, the procurement volume of Sinopec from January to December will be about 1.8 million tons, the procurement volume of PetroChina was about 1.2 million tons, and the procurement of local refining was expected to be about 750,000 tons. All of them were ethanol gasoline consumption, which was divided into main consumption and local refinery consumption. The sales area included the three eastern provinces, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hubei, and Guangxi. According to incomplete statistics, the average monthly consumption of the main business is about 250,000 to 300,000 tons, but the domestic downstream consumption has decreased significantly after October, and the average monthly consumption of local refineries was expected to be about 40,000 to 60,000 tons. Consumption in the fourth quarter entered a off period, and the overall consumption decreased significantly. Especially around December, the situation of pressing cars in front of local refineries was more serious.

In 2023, domestic fuel ethanol prices fluctuated and rose, travel increased in the post-epidemic era, downstream consumption increased significantly compared with the epidemic period, and the enthusiasm of enterprises to produce fuel was also rose simultaneously, fuel prices continued to rise due to increased demand, and the price of fuel ethanol in September was stocked in advance due to the downstream double festival, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was high, and the company's quotation rose to 7050 yuan/ ton of ex-factory, downstream demand declined when returned from double festivals, cost corn prices weakened, fuel ethanol prices declined significantly, as of November under the lowest price Heilongjiang factory to 6100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 950 yuan/ton.

The inventory of some enterprises has increased, the snowfall weather has affected logistics and delivery, the inventory of enterprises has increased, the logistics price has continued to rise, the ex-factory price of the enterprise has benefited the logistics, the price has fallen to a low level, the price of corn has fallen to a low level and the price was reluctant to sell, the price of corn has begun to rebound, DDGS has rebounded after the low level and then weakened slightly, and the production of fuel ethanol production enterprises has basically fluctuated around the profit and loss level, and some have begun to lose money. After the deep fall, the shipment situation did not improve. The decline in corporate fuel production in the fourth quarter boosted the price trend of the fuel ethanol market, and the increase in freight rates led to an increase in the price of the sales area, but the good times were short-lived, and the light demand could not support the price trend. Fuel ethanol prices continued to weaken, falling to a low level, at the end of December, downstream consumption rebounded slightly, the main business began to purchase, the pre-holiday stocking atmosphere was slightly apparent, but not detailed, the price rebounded slightly.