Daily Macro Economy News on June 8
Latest Global Major Index
International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend
Domestic News
1. Emerging market countries seem just have “fallen asleep”, post-epidemic economic growth is almost back to pre-epidemic levels
2. Individual income tax reform and real estate tax reform pilot should not be promoted this year
3. Gold is expected to go strong according to the global "de-dollarization"
4. Jiangsu Province issued 14 measures to promote the stability of foreign trade scale and structure
International News
1. Canada's "wildfire season" has arrived, and hundreds of wildfires have lost control
2. It is still widely expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for a longer period of time in order to fight inflation
3. Rosatom: The attack on the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam will not affect the operation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station for the time being
4. China's foreign trade remained positive growth for four consecutive months
Domestic News
1. Emerging market countries seem just have “fallen asleep”, post-epidemic economic growth is almost back to pre-epidemic levels
Shanwen Gao, an insider of Essence Securities said that after this epidemic, the post-epidemic economic growth in developed countries is lower than before, the interest rates and inflation are significantly higher, but there is still a strong confidence in the future. In contrast, emerging market countries seem just have "fallen asleep", post-epidemic economic growth is almost back to pre-epidemic levels. The pattern of post-epidemic consumption acceleration has prevailed in developed countries rather than the emerging market countries.
2. Individual income tax reform and real estate tax reform pilot should not be promoted this year
Recently, the highly concerned taxation has prioritized the VAT law and tariff law in this year's legislation, while the tax law and real estate tax legislation, which are paid much attention, are not involved. Experts said that considering the economic and social situation this year, we have to ensure stability is a top priority, so the legislative plan did not mention the revision of individual income tax law and real estate tax law, which means that the individual income tax reform and real estate tax reform pilot should not be promoted this year.
3. Gold is expected to go strong according to the global "de-dollarization"
Looking ahead to the future gold price trend, CITIC Securities chief economist Ming Ming said, first, the general trend of global "de-dollarization" is hard to predict, the central banks may continue to increase gold holdings in the future and are expected to promote the gold middle price up. Second, the US inflation trend in the medium and long term downward trend has shown clearly, the Federal Reserve Monetary policy will also gradually turn to ease after the real interest rates drop in the United States, and gold configuration value is expected to further appear. Finally, the fourth quarter is usually the most robust domestic gold demand season, strong demand may also push up the price of gold, and gold prices are not expected to see the top.
4. Jiangsu Province issued 14 measures to promote the stability of foreign trade scale and structure
Jiangsu Province issued 14 measures to promote the stability of foreign trade scale and structure, requiring increased support for large sets of equipment enterprises of accept insurance, and striving for the annual industrial chain of accept insurance scale of more than $ 40 billion. Meanwhile, support solar cells, new energy vehicles, lithium batteries and other "new three kinds" of exports, to accelerate the cultivation of foreign trade new business and new growth points.
International News
1. Canada's "wildfire season" has arrived, and hundreds of wildfires have lost control
It is reported that there are still more than 400 forest fires across Canada and most of which have gotten out of control. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that Canada is experiencing the "worst wildfire season" ever. According to Canada's National Fire Database, more land has been burned by wildfires in Canada this year than ever before, with more than 3.8 million hectares (9.4 million acres) of land burned so far. That's about twice the size of New Jersey. Quebec is the source of the fires that have caused pollution in New York. According to the website of a Quebec organization that tracks fire activity, the province is facing 150 active wildfires. So far, the impact of wildfires on businesses in eastern Canada has been limited mainly to the mining industry. Canadian iron ore company Champion Iron Ltd is expecting major delays in its iron ore sales due to rail disruptions in northern Quebec. Other companies have also suspended exploration activities.
2. It is still widely expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for a longer period of time in order to fight inflation
On June 8, US stocks were lower today on a broad decline in technology stocks, while US Treasuries fell after the Bank of Canada unexpectedly raised interest rates, fueling bets that Fed tightening is not yet over. The tech-dominated Nasdaq fell more than 1%, after large tech companies had pushed the S&P 500 to the edge of the bull market before today's pullback. The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yields rose more than 8 basis points to 4.56% as traders increased bets on a 25 basis point US rate hike in July. Sigma, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said the market is still widely expected to raise interest rates for a longer period of time in order to fight inflation, which is bound to put pressure on technology stocks. The Fed and the ECB will make decisions next week, with the Fed hinting it may skip a rate hike in June before resuming it later.
3. Rosatom: The attack on the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam will not affect the operation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station for the time being
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station is ready to respond and its operations are not affected for the time being, Rosatom President Mikhail Likhachev said. Likhachev said that water supply is a key safety factor for nuclear power station with water reactors, and that Rosatom has been operating the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station since the beginning of its operation, anticipating the possible risks, including calculating the necessary amount of water. The staff of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station is well prepared, both at the organizational and technical levels. In addition, the power station's cooling ponds are not directly connected to the riverbed of the Dnieper. Alternate options for water supply via groundwater wells and other small rivers are also in place. In view of this, there will be no major changes in the operation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station in the coming months.
4. China's foreign trade remained positive growth for four consecutive months
According to customs statistics, in May, China's imports and exports of 3.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.5%. Among them, exports of 1.95 trillion yuan, down 0.8%, and imports of 1.5 trillion yuan, up 2.3%. The trade surplus of 452.33 billion yuan, narrowing by 9.7%. In dollar terms, China's imports and exports in May were 5011.9 billion U.S. dollars, down 6.2%. Among them, exports of $283.5 billion, down 7.5%, and imports of $217.69 billion, down 4.5%, trade surplus of $65.81 billion, narrowing 16.1%.
Domestic Macro Economy Index
