Gasoline is expected to return to the

May 29, 2024, 11:58 AM

TDD-global

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Following recent price cuts, domestic oil prices are anticipated to experience two consecutive declines, starting July 12, 2023. With fluctuations in international oil prices and concerns over economic conditions, the average price of crude oil has dropped significantly, allowing for a reduction in gasoline and diesel prices. Predictions indicate that No. 92 gasoline may fall below 9 yuan per liter, marking a return to the '8 yuan era'. Despite these reductions, the market remains cautious due to potential supply shortages and economic recession fears.

After just experienced a wave of price cuts in the last round, domestic oil prices are expected to usher in the first "two consecutive declines" this year.

At 24:00 on July 12th, a new round of refined oil price adjustment window will be opened. The agency predicts that the price of refined oil products in this round will show a "continuous decline" market, ushering in the third reduction this year.

Recently, the international oil price has fluctuated first and then increased, and the overall trend has fluctuated widely. Poor U.S. economic data exacerbated recession fears, and oil prices fell broadly due to heightened risk aversion in the market.

Affected by the fluctuating and falling international crude oil prices, according to agency estimates, as of the ninth working day on July 11, the average price of crude oil varieties referenced by domestic oil prices was US$107.72 per barrel, with a rate of change of -4.34%. Domestic gasoline and diesel are expected to be lowered. The range is 340 yuan per ton, which is equivalent to about 0.3 yuan per liter of gasoline and diesel. After this round of oil price adjustment, the price of No. 92 gasoline in some areas is expected to drop below 9 yuan per liter, returning to the "8 yuan era".

Some institutions pointed out that in this round of price adjustment cycle, under the high oil price, the terminal oil consumption in Europe and the United States has been suppressed to a certain extent. But later, with Russia suspending the oil pipeline business of the Caspian Pipeline Alliance, the market is expected to lose another 30 million barrels of crude oil supply in the next month, and worries have driven oil prices to rebound.

"Currently, the crude oil market is still unable to distinguish between economic recession expectations and supply shortage worries, and international oil prices fluctuate widely between the two." Crude oil analyst Han Zhengji believes that overall, although in the In the past two trading days, investors' expectations of a shortage of crude oil supply have regained the dominance of the market, but with the release of the US non-farm payrolls data on the 8th and the actual data was higher than market forecasts, expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates again in July once again. Intensification, which may strengthen the impact of economic factors, thereby causing oil prices to fall under pressure.

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