One Week Market Analysis of PVC(3.8-3.12)
1. Analysis Of Domestic PVC Market
1.1. Review Of Domestic PVC Market
The price fluctuation of PVC market intensified during this week (2021.3.8-2021.3.12), and the market tone of this year has been set as sharp rise and fall, changing the situation of small fluctuation in previous years. In terms of valuation comparison, North China fell by 80 yuan / ton, East China by 15-65 yuan / ton, South China by 65 yuan / ton, Northeast China by 50 yuan /ton, central China by 50-250 yuan /ton, and southwest China by 75 yuan / ton.
Spots: The trend of PVC in the week; From the beginning of the week, the short jump and high opening of futures led to a sharp rise in the spot market price, with a single day rise of 200-300 yuan / ton. Last Friday night, there was a sign of rise. On Monday, the short jump and high opening gave the spot market quotation support. Driven by futures, the market merchants raised their quotations one after another, and the transaction in the spot market improved. Traders feedback that the enthusiasm of the downstream to take the goods is still poor, and the transaction is general. The transaction in North China and East China is fair. However, the black pressure on the spot market on Tuesday affected the sentiment of the spot market. The market quotation in the mainstream consumer areas fell, the market inquiry was poor, and the transaction was light. The market traders lacked confidence in the source of high price goods. Once the futures market weakened, the market would sell off. Weak shocks lead to poor transactions in the spot market as a whole, among which the buy it now offers in East China and South China are reduced, and the transactions are mainly spot price transactions. The downstream product enterprises still maintain the principle of replenishment on bargain hunting, and the downstream procurement is relatively cautious, with multi-dimensional rigid demand as the main factor. On Thursday, the market quotation was chaotic, and the prices were mixed. However, the futures rose in the late afternoon of Thursday, and continued to rise above the high point of 8700, and the intraday growth was obvious, with positions of 34511. After the night trading continued to maintain a strong shock, the market prices rose on Friday. On the one hand, the support of calcium carbide cost is strong; on the other hand, the downstream product enterprises start to work. Constrained by the rise of PVC raw materials and additives, some product enterprises raise prices, the demand warms up, and the speed of destocking is accelerated. The market runs well in the week. In terms of ethylene method, due to the influence of cost and early pre-sale, the price is deadlocked this week. In terms of external market, the expected rise of Taiwan Formosa Plastics' April shipment price and the slow short-term recovery of U.S. plants still support the good export, and the order preference effectively reduces the sales pressure of enterprises.
Futures: 2021.3.11 night futures rose, continuing the trend of high volatility. The opening futures 05 contract in the morning was weak, reaching the daily low of 8630, and then up, with the range of 8630-8885 all day, and the high price difference of 255. Friday futures did not go out of a clear trend, but after a sharp increase in positions on Sunday, as of Friday's closing 05, the contract held 336489 hands, comparing with plastic And polypropylene, PVC positions leading, and increased positions upward, considering more than one single access to funds.
1.2. Market Analysis of Domestic Mainstream Consumer Areas
North China: the PVC market in Hebei is still in good trading, and the atmosphere is better. The futures rush drives the spot price to rise slightly. The 5-type materials include vat of 8580-8660 yuan / ton, and the VAT is 8020-8100 yuan / ton, and 8330-8430 yuan / ton is raised by the Inner Mongolia factory.
East China: the trading center of PVC market in Changzhou District moves upward, and the overall market is relatively strong, but the downstream inquiry and purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and the transaction is general. The mainstream assessment of SG-5 electric stone materials is 8650-8770 yuan / ton (excluding the loading), and the offer for one time price is higher. Yihua has raised 8680 yuan / ton, Xinchuan and Jintai have raised 8750 yuan / ton, Yingli and Zhongtai have raised 8770 yuan / ton, and Tianye has raised 8850 yuan / ton. The price offer is v05, qingsong-30, yusshe-20, nangang-10, Yihua +30, Xinchuan, Jintai +50, Beiyuan, Tianye +100, Tianye SG-8 +350.
South China: PVC market quotation in Guangzhou increased, Futures Volatility adjusted, spot inquiries increased, and the transaction was better. The main current price of ordinary 5 electric stone is 8600-8750 yuan / ton, the point price panel v05 is reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton, the three parts of one-time price is 8600 yuan / ton, and the East Hope / Yidong / Erdos report is 8700 yuan / ton self-raised, JunZheng / Yili / Zhongtai newspaper is 8750 yuan / ton. The price of ethylene method rose, and Dagu DG-700/800/1000 reported 9350 yuan / ton, Dagu DG-1300 model reported 9800 yuan / ton.
Taiwan Formosa Plastic Corporation of China is expected to announce the shipping quotation in April, and the market is expected to rise more than expected, up $300 / ton from March. In terms of the installation: the annual output of EPCL (Engro polymer &Chemicals Limited) PVC in Pakistan is 200000 tons; its investment is about 10 billion rupees, the newly added 100000 tons / year PVC and 50000 tons / year polyethylene products are postponed to 2021, and the newly added 100000 tons / year PVC on March 1 has been officially put into production. China Wuhuan Engineering Co., Ltd. has built a PVC plant with an annual output of 200000 tons with virgin global in Bangladesh. It signed a contract in 2016. The plant was postponed to trial production in 2021 due to the transportation of raw materials and price factors.
1.3. Future Forecast
TDD forecast: Supply: PVC enterprises have strong support for raw material cost. Although the price of calcium carbide has risen in the early stage, the increase after the Spring Festival of PVC is large. The profits generated by PVC have enough to digest the rise of calcium carbide. Therefore, the calcium carbide has not been hyped in the early stage, but the recent rise in calcium carbide price has been too strong, with a daily increase of up to 200 yuan / T, which has strong support for PVC, while PVC factory is at the source of chain sales. This is the case The downward space is expected to be squeezed under the characteristics of the seller's market. In terms of demand, the downstream product enterprises continue to improve the overall construction, including the pipeline and granulation field. The floor area continues to produce high load, but due to the real estate impact profile start performance is not good, terminal orders are less. But with the continuous improvement of the starting load, the demand for PVC will become a trend of volume, and the seasonal tired storage will be digested. In 2021, PVC market characteristics became a big rise and fall and point price transactions were active, so recently, the East and South China regions mostly traded at point price, and the one-off price feedback transaction was not smooth. Overall, the basic aspect of PVC is the sustained strength of calcium carbide cost support. With the popularization of vaccine and steady recovery of domestic and foreign economy in March, the demand expectation of peak season generally docking in the market is optimistic, and the futures also supports. The substantial increase in growth takes into account the multiple intervention of capital. At present, there is no clear delivery point. It is expected that the price in the later period will still have a positive trend, The above pressure level is considered as 8900-900 line. In summary, we estimate that PVC will be strong under the double support of cost and demand in the short term.
2. PVC Paste Resin
2.1. Market analysis of PVC (paste resin) this week
This week (2021.3.8-2021.3.12), the price of domestic PVC paste resin manufacturers was still mainly pushed up, but the price of glove material was at a high level, and it was mainly stable in the week. The market price was mixed, the price gap began to narrow, the high price fell in the early stage, and the low price rose. Market price: the price of PVC paste resin plate is 13000-16000 yuan / ton, the delivery price of paste resin glove material in East China market is 24000-26000 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price is low.
The future forecast of TDD: the supply side of PVC paste resin in China has only a big change. The upstream enterprises start to work relatively high. In March, the downstream products enterprises start to work one after another. At the end of April, there is a glove production line to expand capacity. There is still room for large-scale market demand in the future. In addition, the price of calcium carbide at the cost end of PVC paste resin continues to rise with sufficient support. It is expected that the market price will still have upward space in the short term.
2.2. Statistics of PVC Paste Manufacturers Starting This Week
This week (2021.3.8-2021.3.12), the operating rate of PVC paste resin enterprises was about 85.94%. Affected by environmental protection inspection and power rationing, the operating rate of individual enterprises fell slightly. The PVC paste resin plant (100000 tons / year) of Xiyang Chemical Co., Ltd. of Yangmei group was affected by the two sessions, and the start-up time of the plant was postponed to the end of March;
3. Key Analysis of Related Chlor-Alkali Products
3.1. Calcium Carbide
The domestic calcium carbide market price is rising continuously this week (2021.3.8-2021.3.12), PVC receiving price has risen significantly. The prices of each region rose by 200 yuan / ton on Thursday. With the impact of dual control policy of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia, and the maintenance of calcium carbide manufacturers, the quantity of calcium carbide taken out is further reduced. The arrival of downstream mining and purchasing manufacturers is uneven in regional characteristics. There is a phenomenon of load reduction due to the shortage of calcium carbide arrival in North China , downstream buyers are actively purchasing, and the price increase in this cycle is 280-540 yuan / ton. In order to maintain the normal demand for calcium carbide, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide procurement will still rise next week. Price: the price of receiving goods in Shandong is 4580-4800 yuan / ton; the receiving price in Hebei is 4590-4615 yuan / ton; Dagu receiving price is 4600 yuan / ton; the price of north yuan of Shaanxi is 4270-4280 yuan / ton; the receiving price in Henan is 4400 yuan / ton; the receiving price in Northeast China is 4530-4695 yuan / ton; the self raised price in Shanxi is 4000 yuan / ton; Sichuan does not offer a price temporarily.
3.2. Crude Oil
The international crude oil futures market rose sharply as the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its forecast for the growth of global economy and oil demand this year in its latest oil market report. At the same time, the weakening US dollar also helped oil prices rise. WTI crude oil futures rose $1.58, or 2.5%, to $66.02 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in April. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures rose $1.73, or 2.6%, to $69.63 per barrel on the London Intercontinental Exchange in May. OPEC said in its march oil market report released on Thursday that the introduction of more fiscal stimulus measures by major countries around the world and more people being vaccinated will help light up the prospects for global economic growth and oil demand this year. In the report, OPEC raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2021 by 0.3 percentage points, and raised its forecast for global oil demand growth this year to more than 200000 B / D, saying that as the impact of the epidemic gradually dissipates, global economic activity is expected to accelerate. OPEC's latest forecast is that global oil demand will grow by 5.89 million B / D to 96.27 million B / D in 2021, while last month OPEC predicted that global oil demand will only grow by 5.79 million B / d this year. However, global oil demand in 2021 will still be lower than that before the outbreak in 2019.
In addition, the geopolitical tension in the Middle East also supports the rise of oil prices to a certain extent. U.S. and regional officials say Israel has attacked at least 12 ships bound for Syria, most of them carrying Iranian oil, for fear that oil profits are financing extremism in the Middle East.
4. Statistics of PVC Plant Operation Rate This Week
This week (2021.3.8-2021.3.12), the weekly average operating rate of PVC manufacturers in this cycle was 86.44%, decreased by 1.79% on a month on month basis and increased by 13.85% on a year-on-year basis. Among them, the operating rate of calcium carbide method was 87.89%, decreased by 0.87% on a month on month basis, and increased by 10.97% on a year-on-year basis; the operating rate of ethylene method was 80.69%, decreased by 5.42% on a month on month basis, and increased by 25.23% on a year-on-year basis.
5. Price Analysis of International Market
5.1. International VCM Market Price This Week
International VCM: March 12: CFR Far East 1149-1151 up 10, CFR Southeast Asia 1229-1231 up 10, FOB northwest Europe 948-952 down 60, Fas Houston 1365-1375 up 200.
5.2. International PVC Market Price This Week
International PVC: March 11: CFR Southeast Asia 1399-1401 rose 40, CFR India 1619-1621 rose 45, UK 1039-1041 fell 26.
