The risk of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve may put pressure on oil prices

May 29, 2024, 11:58 AM

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Natasha Kaneva from JPMorgan Chase expresses optimism about crude oil demand recovery with China's rebound, though she warns of a slow price rise. Morgan Stanley sees strong demand but short-term downward pressure due to rising inventories and Russian oil production, lowering price forecasts. Bank of America agrees, citing ample Russian supply limiting price increases.

Natasha Kaneva, global head of commodity research and strategy at JPMorgan Chase, previously pointed out in her report that with the recovery of China, she was optimistic about the future demand for crude oil, but she expected that the rise of oil prices might be a "very slow process".

Morgan Stanley believes that this year's oil demand is strong, but the oil price is facing downward pressure in the short term due to the increase in inventories and the production of Russian oil exceeding expectations. It lowered its forecast for the second half of the year, reducing the crude oil price in the third quarter of 2023 from $100/barrel to $95/barrel, and lowering the forecast for the fourth quarter and 2024 from $110 to $95/barrel.