what the ethylene glycol will develop?
On May 9, the market price index of ethylene glycol was 4894.28, down 46.1 from the last working day.
Today, the market price of ethylene glycol decreased slightly, and the quotation and market transaction price of some factories decreased. Specifically, the quotation of some regions in East China has been reduced. The quotation of Shanghai Petrochemical has been reduced by 50 yuan to 4900 yuan / ton, that of Yangzi Petrochemical has stabilized at 4950 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec has stabilized at 5000 yuan / ton.In Central China, the quotation of Wuhan ethylene was significantly reduced from 650 yuan to 4900 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Yongjin chemical was stable at 4650 yuan / ton, but the turnover in the market was limited.In Central China, the quotation of Wuhan ethylene was significantly reduced from 650 yuan to 4900 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Yongjin chemical was stable to 4650 yuan / ton, but the turnover in the market was limited; The quotation in Northeast China is stable, with Jilin Petrochemical at 4850 yuan / ton and Fushun Petrochemical at 4850 yuan / ton; The quotation in Shandong is stable, the quotation of Hualu Hengsheng is stable to 5200 yuan / ton, and the lihuayi device maintains the early maintenance state. There is no quotation for the time being, and the delivery and bidding is general; The quoted price of ethylene glycol in South China fluctuates slightly. The quoted price of ethylene glycol in Guangdong is 5150-5200 yuan / ton, and there are transactions at the low end; The quotation for industrial grade coal delivery is around 4900 yuan / ton; Fujian ethylene glycol self offered quotation is 5050 yuan / ton.
At present, the spot basis is around 130-155 yuan / ton of 09 contract discount, and the negotiated price is 4870-4880 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the transaction price of some orders is about 4860-4896 yuan / ton. The basis of futures in May is around 115-125 yuan / ton of 09 contract discount, and the negotiated price is 4895-4905 yuan / ton. The transaction price is around 120 yuan / ton of 09 contract discount, and the negotiated price of futures in June is around 70-80 yuan / ton of 09 contract discount.
From a macro perspective, OPEC + keep production policy, advocating a moderate increase. The European Union is about to ban the import of Russian oil, and the reduction of oil supply will have an impact on oil prices. Although the current global epidemic has an negative effect on crude oil prices, the geographical situation can still bring benefits, so the cost side of ethylene glycol has a certain guarantee. On the supply side, the supply in the mainland market shrunk slightly; However, the port inventory continues to grow,so there’s a little pressure on the overall supply of the domestic market.On the demand side, at present, the downstream polyester industry is affected by the epidemic, causing transportation sealed and controlled, so the delivery is blocked, and it is not good in the market. The downstream has not taken action, and the demand side is not as expected. Overall, the contradiction between supply and demand in the ethylene glycol market still exists. It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate slightly in the short term, and the price of crude oil and coal still need to be paid attention to in the later stage.
