December 27 Macroeconomic Index:Energy Security and Economic Outlook

Latest Global Major Index

International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. China Energy Group: Focus on preventing and resolving major risks, and promote full-level penetrating supervision

2. The low-altitude economic industry branch of Shanghai Yangtze River Delta Modern Industry Development Promotion Association was inaugurated

3. In 2024, the market size of China's "Guzi Economy" reached 168.9 billion yuan, an increase of more than 40% over 2023

4. Lin Tao, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics: Although the revised GDP in 2023 changed in terms of aggregate, it would not have a significant impact on the GDP growth rate in 2024

5. The Ministry of National Defense introduced the 14th Sino-French Senior Military Officer Security Policy Seminar

 International News

1. Department of Defense: The expansion of the U.S. space force endangers global strategic stability

2. HSBC: UK inflation is expected to cool again next year

3. U.S. natural gas prices fell after a breakthrough: the severe cold pushed up in January, and the supply was frozen and uncertain

4. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia and China cooperate within multilateral frameworks such as BRICS

5. Canadian Business Economics Association: The Federal Reserve will need more than 50 basis points of rate cuts next year

Domestic News

1. China Energy Group: Focus on preventing and resolving major risks, and promote full-level penetrating supervision

On the morning of December 26, the National Energy Group held a meeting of the Party Group (Enlarged). The meeting emphasized that first, we must go all out to stabilize growth, improve quality and efficiency, establish a scientific market value management concept, and do a good job in the construction of major projects and the preparation of the "15th Five-Year Plan". Second, we must focus on preventing and resolving major risks, strengthen the rigid constraints on the implementation of internal control, and promote penetrating supervision at all levels. Third, we must plan reform measures from a high starting point, promote the comprehensive deepening of reform, highlight the value of strategic functions, and make every effort to complete the task of deepening and upgrading the reform of state-owned enterprises. Fourth, we must achieve independent high-level science and technology, comprehensively promote scientific and technological innovation, promote high quality development of major national science and technology projects, and accelerate the development of new quality productive force. Fifth, we must make every effort to do a good job in the work at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, pay close attention to the safe and stable supply of energy this winter and next spring, do a good job in safe production and ecological environmental protection, scientifically plan the key work of production and operation reform and development next year, and strive to achieve a good start to the new year.

2. Over 700 billion kilowatt hours! The annual power generation of the State Power Investment Group has reached the best level in history

The Low-altitude Economy Industry Branch of Shanghai Yangtze River Delta Modern Industry Development Promotion Association was inaugurated at the 2024 Future Space & High-end Manufacturing High-quality Development Forum. The branch aims to promote the development of low-altitude economy and future space industry through science and technology leadership, talent training, standard compilation, and exchange and docking. According to reports, with the theme of "New Quality Driven, Chain Future", the forum will build a docking and exchange platform for the future space industry and high-end manufacturing industry enterprises represented by the low-altitude economy through in-depth exchanges, so as to promote the high-quality development of the future space and high-end manufacturing industry.

3. The time of the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress in 2025 was determined

This year, "Guzi" stores have grown explosively. "Guzi" is transliterated from the English word "goods" for commodities, which is a general term for two-dimensional peripheral derivatives. The shop that sells derivatives is called "Guzi shop", and the purchase of goods is called "Chi gu". As a new trend of consumption, the "Guzi economy" has leveraged the consumer market of more than 100 billion yuan. According to statistics, most of the consumers in the "Guzi economy" are women, and consumers in first-tier cities are the majority. In 2024, the market size of China's "Guzi economy" reached 168.9 billion yuan, an increase of more than 40% over 2023, and the market was in a period of rapid growth, and the market size is expected to reach 308.9 billion yuan in 2029. (CCTV Finance)

4. Value-Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China: The tax rate on the sale of immovable property is 9%.

Lin Tao, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the State Council Information Office that regarding the impact of the revision of the 2023 GDP accounting data on the GDP growth rate in 2024, in general, after the verification of the 2023 GDP, the total GDP in 2024 should be changed, but the GDP growth rate accounting in 2024 will not be significantly affected. According to China's current GDP accounting method, the preliminary accounting of GDP is mainly based on the growth rate of relevant indicators. That is to say, in the preliminary calculation of GDP in 2024, the revised GDP in 2023 was used as the base, and the growth rate of relevant indicators of different industries was used to calculate, so the growth rate of added value of each industry in 2024 was first calculated, and then the total added value in 2024 was calculated according to this growth rate and the total added value of the previous year. Therefore, although the 2023 GDP revisions would change in terms of aggregates, it will not have a significant impact on GDP growth in 2024. Judging from the past four economic censuses, the data revision did not have a significant impact on the GDP growth rate in subsequent years. (China.com)

5. The interest rate of consumer loans of many banks has dropped.

At a regular press conference held by the Ministry of National Defense, a reporter asked a question: According to reports, the 14th Sino-French Senior Military Officers' Security Policy Seminar was held in Beijing. Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, spokesman for the Ministry of National Defense, said that from December 8 to 14, the 14th Sino-French Senior Military Officer Security Policy Seminar was held at the National Defense University. With the theme of "Strengthening Sino-French Strategic Cooperation and Safeguarding World Peace and Stability", the two sides introduced national defense policies and military construction, discussed and exchanged views on issues of common concern such as college education and new combat capabilities, explored ways and means of global security governance, and visited relevant military units in Hainan, Shanghai and other places. 2025 is the first year of the "new Jiazi" of China-France relations, and China will strengthen strategic communication and deepen practical cooperation with France, so as to contribute to global peace and stability. (CCTV News)

International News

1. The Ukrainian government banned the export of gas, gold and salt for one year

According to reports, the establishment of the US Space Force in Japan was recently announced, and the first commander said at the inauguration ceremony that in view of China and Russia's strengthening of military use of space and 's promotion of nuclear and missile development, the creation of the Space Force in Japan is aimed at strengthening space vigilance, surveillance, and response capabilities in the region. Do you have any comment? Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, spokesman for the Ministry of National Defense, said that the United States continues to expand its space military capabilities, strengthen space military alliances, and provoke an arms race in space, endangering global strategic stability. China has always adhered to the peaceful use of space and opposes the weaponization and battlefield of space. We urge the US to seriously examine its dangerous moves in the space domain, stop inciting confrontation in space, stop spreading false narratives, and make its due contribution to maintaining lasting peace and security in space. (Issued by the Ministry of Defense)

2. South Korea's crypto asset market is growing rapidly, and the average daily trading volume is close to that of the stock market

HSBC economist Chris Hale wrote in a note that UK inflation is expected to cool again as the clock ticks through 2025. Annual price increases have accelerated for two consecutive months, pushing inflation above the Bank of England's 2% target to 2.6%. However, Hale believes that much of this can be attributed to the base effect in the same period a year ago, with underlying inflation showing signs of slowing. "As long as the underlying momentum remains fairly modest, we should see softer inflation in the spring and beyond," he said. He added that this should allow the Bank of England to lower interest rates to 3.00% from the current 4.75% by early next year.

3. Russian Finance Minister: Begin to use digital currency for international payments and be optimistic about future development

US natural gas prices retreated after reaching $4 in overnight trading for the first time in nearly two years. The rally over the past week has been driven by forecasts of extremely cold weather in January, which will increase heating demand and a possible production freeze in some areas. Eli Rubin, an analyst at EBW Analytics, said in a note: "The key question will be whether the cold can trigger enough supply-side freezes to cause widespread market disruption." ”

4. The Russian-Ukrainian natural gas contract expires, and Russia wants to export by multiple channels

On December 26, local time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at an online press conference in response to a question from a reporter from the main station that Russia and China are stable factors in international relations, and the two sides cooperate within multilateral frameworks such as BRICS. Lavrov said that 2025 is the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War and the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War, and Russia and China will continue to strengthen media cooperation. (CCTV News)

5. The President of the UAE met with the Foreign Minister of Turkey to discuss bilateral relations and other issues

The Fed's median forecast for interest rates in 2025 is just 50 basis points of rate cuts, but the Canadian Business Economics Association (BCA) expects more. Inflation is likely to be lower than the Fed's 2025 projections, while the unemployment rate is likely to be higher than the Fed's 2025 projections, BCA analysts said in a note. "As a result, more than 50 basis points of easing will be required," they said. The Fed forecasts an unemployment rate of 4.3% by the end of 2025, "which would require a significant improvement in the momentum in the labor market, and we don't think such a trend shift is likely to happen."

Domestic Macro Economy Index