February 11 Macroeconomic Index:Global Economic and Trade Trends: From the standardization of China’s service industry to the impact of international tariff wars

Latest Global Major Index

International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. The Ministry of Commerce and the State Administration for Market Regulation announced the list of the second batch of national service industry standardization pilots (special for commercial circulation).

2. Experts deem that the inversion of short- and medium-term deposit interest rates is accidental

3. A number of interbank certificate of deposit funds have adjusted their sales targets and suspended sales to the proprietary accounts of financial institutions

4. The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade organized a delegation of entrepreneurs to visit Kazakhstan

5. Trump said that he would impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum exports to the United States, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded

 International News

1. DBS Bank: U.S. tariffs and interest rate uncertainty make 2025 a 'turbulent year'

2. Indian LNG buyers in talks to buy U.S. fuel, and the Indian government could also "facilitate" the deal

3. Analysts: Trump's tariff uncertainty pushes gold prices to new highs

4. Climate change may cause heat waves in South Korea to be significantly earlier and longer

5. The shipping company raised the freight rate in March, and the European line continued to rise

Domestic News

1. The Ministry of Commerce and the State Administration for Market Regulation announced the list of the second batch of national service industry standardization pilots (special for commercial circulation).

The Ministry of Commerce, together with the State Administration for Market Regulation, jointly launched the second batch of national-level service industry standardization pilots, and on the basis of voluntary declaration by cities and enterprises and local merit-based recommendations, 7 special pilot cities and 57 pilot enterprises for the standardization of commercial and trade circulation were identified through expert review and social publicity. The pilot program will run for two years from January 2025 to December 2026.

2. Experts deem that the inversion of short- and medium-term deposit interest rates is accidental

According to media reports, according to incomplete statistics, the one-year and two-year deposit interest rates of many small and medium-sized banks such as Huairen Rural Commercial Bank, Shuozhou Rural Commercial Bank, and Lingchuan County Associated Association have been stable or "inverted" recently. Unlike the previous "inversion" of three-year and five-year deposit interest rates, the "inversion" of interest rates seems to have spread to short- and medium-term deposits. Xue Hongyan, Vice President of the Xingtu Financial Research Institute, told reporters that the "inversion" of the deadline is an occasional phenomenon and it is difficult to become a general trend. As for the reason for the "inversion" of bank deposit interest rates, Xue Hongyan said that the "inversion" of the term of individual bank deposit interest rates is related to the bank's promotional strategy at a specific point in time. He expects that in the coming period, it is still a high probability that the deposit rate will continue to be lowered.

3. A number of interbank certificate of deposit funds have adjusted their sales targets and suspended sales to the proprietary accounts of financial institutions

Yingda Asset announced that in order to better serve investors, on the premise of effectively protecting the interests of existing fund share holders, the company decided to adjust the sales object and subscription business limit of the 7-day holding period of Yingda CSI Interbank Certificate of Deposit AAA Index from February 11. For the time being, the asset will not be sold to the proprietary accounts of financial institutions (except for the fund manager's own funds). In addition to the Yingda CSI Interbank Certificate of Deposit AAA Index 7-day holding period securities investment fund, Harvest CSI Interbank Certificate of Deposit AAA Index 7-day holding period, Chunhou CSI Interbank Certificate of Deposit AAA Index 7-day holding period securities investment fund, CICC CSI Interbank Certificate of Deposit AAA Index 7-day holding period initiated securities investment fund and other interbank certificate of deposit index products have also recently issued an announcement on the adjustment of sales objects, and will not sell to the proprietary accounts of financial institutions (except for the fund manager's own funds) for the time being.

4. The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade organized a delegation of entrepreneurs to visit Kazakhstan

The reporter learned from the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade that a delegation of Chinese entrepreneurs organized by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade set off today (February 10) to visit Kazakhstan for economic and trade exchange activities, which is also the first visit of China's entrepreneur delegation after the Spring Festival. The delegation of entrepreneurs was organized by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, with representatives from 32 enterprises, covering industries such as mineral energy, petrochemical industry, finance and trade, water conservancy and hydropower, construction engineering, aviation logistics, machinery manufacturing, etc. After arriving in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, the delegation will carry out a four-day economic and trade exchange activities to promote the business circles of China and Kazakhstan to strengthen communication and exchanges and deepen practical cooperation.

5. Trump said that he would impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum exports to the United States, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun held a regular press conference. Bloomberg reporter asked, U.S. President Trump said that he will announce a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the United States on the 10th. Do you have any comment? Guo Jiakun said that please ask the competent department for specific questions. "What I want to stress is that there is no way out for protectionism, and there is no winner in trade wars and tariff wars."

International News

1. DBS Bank: U.S. tariffs and interest rate uncertainty make 2025 a 'turbulent year'

DBS Bank, Singapore's largest asset bank, reported solid full-year results on Monday, with a record net profit. DBS CEO Gupta said the bank needed to remain stable in response to the "turbulence" of 2025 brought on by unpredictable tariffs and monetary policy by the United States. "We're actually very aware that the Trump administration is likely to weaponize the economy, so tariffs and tax policies and things like that could change," Gupta said. Regarding Fed rate cut expectations, he added that DBS initially expected the Fed to cut rates four times in 2025, but in the latest earnings report, this forecast has been reduced to two.

2. Indian LNG buyers in talks to buy U.S. fuel, and the Indian government could also "facilitate" the deal

India's largest LNG importer is holding talks to buy more fuel from US suppliers ahead of Indian Prime Minister Modi's expected meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington this week. Companies including Indian Oil Corp. are discussing long-term purchases of LNG from Cheniere Energy Inc., the largest U.S. exporter, and other companies that have access to U.S. supplies, according to people familiar with the matter. Indian buyers will hold meetings with suppliers on the sidelines of the India Energy Week conference in Delhi in the coming days. Businesses are under pressure from the government to get a deal done, but they will seek the most favorable terms possible before signing any deals, they added.

3. Analysts: Trump's tariff uncertainty pushes gold prices to new highs

U. S. President Donald Trump said he would announce tariffs on steel and aluminum imports on Monday, adding to growing uncertainty in global financial markets and pushing gold prices to new record highs. Westpac analyst Richard Franulovich said in a note that "gold prices remain in the sweet spot and there are few obstacles." "Trump, who is inherently unpredictable and disruptive, has threatened tariffs with both allies and adversaries, and has also said that the BRICS will impose 100% tariffs on them if they diversify away from the dollar, all of which suggest that gold's safe-haven appeal will increase."

4. Climate change may cause heat waves in South Korea to be significantly earlier and longer

The Korea Meteorological Agency said in its first white paper on heat wave weather released on the 9th that due to climate change, the summer heat wave weather in South Korea has become longer in recent years. Without effective responses, it is expected that by 2100, South Korea may experience a heat wave as early as May and end in September. The Korea Herald quoted a white paper as saying that heat waves in South Korea are occurring earlier than in the past: in the 90s of the last century, they first appeared in early July, and then gradually advanced to late June; In 2024, it has already appeared in mid-to-late June.

5. The shipping company raised the freight rate in March, and the European line continued to rise

On Monday, the European long-month contract continued to drive the near-month contract up, and the main 04 contract rose by more than 12%. At the news level, the recent U.S. President's plan to expand the trade war to EU countries may increase the market's expectations for the improvement of Sino-European relations to a certain extent. From a spot perspective, although spot freight rates continued to fall during the Spring Festival, the futures market reflected more forward expectations. In 2025, the long-term agreement price of the European line has been locked at 2500-3200 US dollars/FEU, which is much higher than the level in 2023, indicating that shipping companies have high confidence in the annual freight rate. With Hapag-Lloyd rising to 2500/4100 from March 1, up 700/1100 from 1800/3000, the dominant factor in market prices may be expected to achieve a shift from weak reality to strong expectations in the current fundamental off-season. In the context of geopolitical tensions, the contango structure between European line contracts may be continued.

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