February 12 Macroeconomic Index:Economic dynamics and policy responses from a global perspective, from smart driving to the impact of international sanctions

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International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. DeepSeek is expected to accelerate the implementation of high-end intelligent driving

2. It is planned to transfer 151 million cubic meters of water to the north of the Yellow River

3. "Stopping the decline and stabilizing" has become the key word of this year's real estate work

4. The "8+4" economic policy municipal financial funds increased from 49 billion yuan last year to 50.2 billion yuan

5. Coal-to-naphtha: In 2024, the hydrogenation output of the main producing areas was about 686,000 tons

 International News

1. US media: Europe has a new plan to "massively seize" Russian shadow oil tankers

2. Indian official: Modi and Trump meet, and they will "absolutely" talk about nuclear energy

3. In response to U.S. sanctions, Iran has warned of closing oil shipping arteries

4. The French job market remains strong in the face of economic headwinds

5. Gold prices hit new highs, and Trump's tariff actions boosted safe-haven demand

Domestic News

1. DeepSeek is expected to accelerate the implementation of high-end intelligent driving

DeepSeek has made key innovations in the underlying architecture, training framework, model inference, etc., and has achieved a match with the world's leading AI models, which has important reference significance for the development of intelligent driving. In terms of data generation, data augmentation and synthesis can be used to deal with extreme scenarios. In terms of data processing, we draw on the DeepSeek stream data processing method, combined with edge computing, memory playback and other technologies for real-time data processing and incremental learning. At the same time, we draw on knowledge distillation to reduce data dependence and improve the efficiency of intelligent driving development, and combine cross-modal alignment to deploy the intelligent driving model capability in the vehicle to adapt to different configurations of models.

2. It is planned to transfer 151 million cubic meters of water to the north of the Yellow River

The emergency water supply project for the northern extension of the eastern line of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project launched the 2024-2025 water transfer project on the 10th, and plans to transfer 151 million cubic meters of water to the north of the Yellow River. In recent years, a total of 825 million cubic meters of water has been diverted north of the Yellow River, including 571 million cubic meters of water to the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal.

3. "Stopping the decline and stabilizing" has become the key word of this year's real estate work

The expression of real estate policy in the government work report of the provincial and local two sessions in 2025 has attracted much attention. Judging from the government work reports of 31 provinces across the country that have been released, "stopping the fall and stabilizing" has become the key word of real estate work this year. The real estate policy statements of various provinces fully demonstrate their determination to continue to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize this year.

4. The "8+4" economic policy municipal financial funds increased from 49 billion yuan last year to 50.2 billion yuan

The "8+4" economic policy has increased from 49 billion yuan last year to 50.2 billion yuan. Specially coordinate 15% of industrial policy funds, focus on high-quality new productive forces, and increase support for future industries such as general artificial intelligence and humanoid robots.

5. Coal-to-naphtha: In 2024, the hydrogenation output of the main producing areas was about 686,000 tons

As of 2024, China's total coal tar hydrogenation capacity reached 12.155 million tons/year, showing a "two-sides and multi-points" distribution trend. Among them, the "two sides" are Shaanxi Province and Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, which have a production capacity of 3.41 million tons/year and 3.28 million tons/year respectively, totaling 6.69 million tons/year, accounting for more than half of the country's total production capacity. According to data from Zhuochuang Information, as of the end of December 2024, Shaanxi Province has produced a total of 21.2 tons of hydrogenated naphtha, and Xinjiang Autonomous Region has produced a total of 474,000 tons of naphtha. Shaanxi has another straight-run naphtha output of about 238,000 tons.

International News

1. US media: Europe has a new plan to "massively seize" Russian shadow oil tankers

According to Politico, the tranquil Gulf of Finland is not calm, and it seems to be the new front line of the secret war between Russia and the West. Two EU diplomats and two government officials said that at the moment European countries are holding behind-the-scenes talks about the large-scale seizure of Moscow's oil export tankers in the Baltic Sea. They are also currently drafting new legislation to give legal effect to these initiatives. The officials said the proposals being considered included using international law and seizing ships on environmental or piracy grounds. Failing that, these countries could go it alone and jointly enforce new national laws to detain more ships further afield. Estonian Foreign Minister Tsakhna said: "50% of Russia's seaborne oil trade under sanctions passes through the Gulf of Finland. "They pose an environmental threat, but also attacks on our undersea infrastructure."

2. Indian official: Modi and Trump meet, and they will "absolutely" talk about nuclear energy

Indian Prime Minister Modi will discuss nuclear energy, including small and modular reactors, during a meeting with US President Donald Trump this week. "Oh, absolutely!" India's Oil and Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said in response to a question about whether the two leaders would discuss nuclear energy at the India Energy Week meeting in New Delhi on Tuesday. The world's most populous country is looking to develop more nuclear power to meet decarbonization goals. The government has pledged billions of dollars in research and is amending laws to attract private capital and boost the industry's growth. India's nuclear industry has been hampered, in part by safety concerns.

3. In response to U.S. sanctions, Iran has warned of closing oil shipping arteries

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Commander Ali Reza Tangiseri recently warned that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed if Iran is unable to export oil, and preventing Iran from exporting oil normally is exactly what US President Trump intended. "We have the military ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, but we will not do so for the time being as long as we are still using the strait," the senior military commander noted in an interview with Iranian media. "Currently, about one-third of the world's seaborne crude oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the report, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order on the 4th to restart the policy of "maximum pressure" on Iran, focusing on strengthening economic sanctions and reducing Iran's oil exports to zero to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons.

4. The French job market remains strong in the face of economic headwinds

Despite the sluggish French economy, the unemployment rate fell unexpectedly slightly in the last months of last year. Data released on Tuesday showed that France's ILO unemployment rate fell to 7.3% in the fourth quarter from 7.4% in the previous quarter, remaining at its lowest level in more than 40 years, contrary to expectations of a slight increase in the unemployment rate. Despite the weakness of the overall French economy, the job market remains strong. France's economy shrank in the second quarter as the boost from last summer's Paris Olympics faded and political impasse hit business and consumer confidence.

5. Gold prices hit new highs, and Trump's tariff actions boosted safe-haven demand

Gold hit an all-time high after US President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all US steel and aluminum imports, adding uncertainty to global markets and boosting demand for safe-haven assets. Gold hit an all-time high above $2,921. Trump said on Monday that the steel and aluminum tariffs, which will take effect on March 4, will help boost domestic production and bring more jobs to the United States, warning that the rates are "likely to be higher." Gold prices have risen 11% year-to-date and hit new highs as Trump's trade and geopolitical moves have strengthened gold's role as a store of value in uncertain times. Markets are also trying to assess the potential impact on the U.S. economy and monetary policy if the White House's policies revive inflation and dampen growth.

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