February 14 Macroeconomic Index:Global financial trends: From the decline in China's coal sales to the outlook for international gold price fluctuations

Latest Global Major Index

International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. China Coal Energy: Commercial coal sales in January were 21.63 million tons, down 9.2% year-on-year

2. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China's consumer market is undergoing a transformation from "quantity" to "quality".

3. Experts: The central bank's "balance sheet reduction" has no much effect for the moderate easing of monetary policy

4. PowerChina Southern Regional Headquarter signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Guangken Agricultural Development

5. Xi'an: This year, we will organize a pilot application of intelligent robot training vehicles

 International News

1. Strategists: Once the tariff situation is clear, the gold rally may weaken

2. Market analysis: The UK economy is not expected to grow significantly in the coming months

3. ECB officials: There is may no longer mention the word "restrictive" in March policy statement

4. Trade war fears pushed gold prices higher, awaiting US PPI data

5. Institutional survey: Most economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in the second half of 2025

Domestic News

1. China Coal Energy: Commercial coal sales in January were 21.63 million tons, down 9.2% year-on-year

China Coal Energy announced that the sales volume of commercial coal in January 2025 was 21.63 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%. Commercial coal production in January 2025 was 11.48 million tons, down 0.0% year-on-year. The sales volume of polyethylene was 48,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2%. The sales volume of polypropylene was 59,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. The output of urea was 179,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 77.2%. The sales volume of urea was 205,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 37.6%. The output of methanol was 178,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 54.8%. The sales volume of methanol was 182,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 64.0%. The output of ammonium nitrate was 43,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%. The sales volume of ammonium nitrate was 41,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2%. The output value of coal mining equipment was 830 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%.

2. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China's consumer market is undergoing a transformation from "quantity" to "quality".

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun held a regular press conference today (13 February). Guo Jiakun said that during the Spring Festival of the Year of the Snake, the spring tide of China's consumer market is surging: the national tide culture, intangible cultural heritage experience, ice and snow economy, consumer goods trade-in and other unprecedented heat, digital transformation, technology empowerment, and the emergence of new consumption formats, China's consumer market is realizing the transformation from "quantity" to "quality"; The supply and sales of "foreign New Year goods" are booming, and Chinese and foreign tourists are "going in both directions", and China's super-large-scale consumer market provides huge opportunities for cooperation between countries. Guo Jiakun pointed out that the boom of China's consumer market reflects not only the recovery of demand, but also the improvement of confidence in China's economic development, reflecting the continuous optimization of China's economic structure, the significant enhancement of endogenous momentum, and the continuous increase in development resilience. With the implementation of the package of incremental policies, China will inject stronger confidence and impetus into global economic growth with its high-quality development and high-level opening-up.

3. Experts: The central bank's "balance sheet reduction" has no much effect for the moderate easing of monetary policy

According to data recently released by the central bank, as of the end of 2024, the total assets of the monetary authority was 44.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1,643.1 billion yuan from the end of the previous year. In this regard, many experts believe that the central bank's "balance sheet reduction" is mainly due to the fact that innovative monetary policy tools such as treasury bond trading and outright reverse repo are gradually replacing traditional monetary policy tools, which does not mean that monetary policy is tightened. In 2025, the monetary policy will remain moderately easing, providing strong support for the realization of the annual economic and social development goals and tasks.

4. PowerChina Southern Regional Headquarter signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Guangken Agricultural Development

According to the official WeChat message of Guangken Agriculture, the Southern Regional Headquarters of China Power Construction Group Co., Ltd. and Guangdong Guangken Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. officially signed a strategic cooperation agreement in Guangzhou. The two sides will carry out in-depth cooperation in the fields of facility agriculture + photovoltaic, comprehensive land management, national innovation and innovation demonstration base construction and digitalization, and jointly explore new development opportunities.

5. Xi'an: This year, we will organize a pilot application of intelligent robot training vehicles

This year, the Xi'an Transportation Comprehensive Law Enforcement Detachment will deepen the innovation and development of the driver training industry and organize the application pilot of intelligent robot training vehicles. It is reported that Xi'an will deepen the reform of the driver training industry, cultivate 2 "smart driving schools", and organize the application pilot of smart robot training vehicles. Strengthen the empowerment of science and technology and promote innovation in the digital system. Accelerate the integration and reconstruction of seven business systems, including road transportation, vehicle maintenance and driver training, and law enforcement temporary detention vehicle management, and build a solid data foundation for smart law enforcement. Comprehensively promote the operation of the "Xi'an Driver Training Public Service Platform" to realize the informatization, convenience, openness and intelligence of driving training supervision and services.

International News

1. Strategists: Once the tariff situation is clear, the gold rally may weaken

Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP SA, said that while there is a possibility of a sudden rise in the price of gold towards $3,200, the resolution of the dislocation of physical gold due to tariffs, as well as potential structural changes such as reduced risk appetite, lower participation and reduced liquidity, are increasingly detrimental to the rise in gold prices. She said her firm's forecast for the average gold price in 2025 remains at $2,750 and has no intention of raising it upward. "If anything different, the structural developments over the past few months have strengthened the bearish case for gold." She further noted that the gold rally could weaken once the tariff situation becomes clear. BofA Securities said emerging market central banks are likely to reduce gold purchases if U.S. tariffs lead to weaker local currencies in emerging economies.

2. Market analysis: The UK economy is not expected to grow significantly in the coming months

Debapratim De, an analyst at Deloitte, said the UK economy would not see significant growth in the coming months. The UK economy unexpectedly grew in the fourth quarter, but only by 0.1%, and "the underlying momentum remains weak," the analyst wrote. "We expect fiscal easing from last autumn's budget to push economic activity back up over the summer, but growth will still slow throughout the spring," he said. ”

3. ECB officials: There is may no longer mention the word "restrictive" in March policy statement

ECB Governing Council member Vujcic said the ECB should not steer investors on how far interest rates will fall, but he expects the debate on the terminal rate to intensify soon and the ECB may change its rhetoric at its March meeting. The ECB still describes its policy setting as "restrictive", but another rate cut would bring the deposit rate down to 2.5%, and some policymakers may begin to wonder if the rate is still high enough to dampen economic growth. "We are certainly close to discussing when the word 'restrictive' should be removed," Vujcic said. "That could happen at our next meeting, but that will also depend on the data coming up."

4. Trade war fears pushed gold prices higher, awaiting US PPI data

Gold prices rose on Thursday as markets closely watched the development of US President Donald Trump's tariff plan, which could further escalate the global trade war; Meanwhile, investors await important US data later in the day. Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, said: "Gold continues to play an important role as a diversifier against the backdrop of trade uncertainty, with market participants seeking to reduce portfolio volatility. "The market has largely shaken off the impact of the larger-than-expected increase in CPI. The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) is likely to have less of an impact on market sentiment as interest rate expectations have adapted to a prolonged high interest rate environment. Yeap said.

5. Institutional survey: Most economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in the second half of 2025

The majority of economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again in the second half of the year, according to a monthly survey released on Thursday by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER), a private think tank. According to a survey of 36 economists, 30 economists expect the Bank of Japan to stabilize interest rates at 0.5% in the first half of 2025. The remaining six expect a rate hike to 0.75% during this period. 28 economists predict a rate hike to 0.75% in the second half of the year. Two of the economists expect interest rates to remain at 0.5%, while six believe rates will rise to 1%. These projections are broadly unchanged from the previous survey, suggesting that market bets on the timing of the next rate hike have not changed much over the past month.

Domestic Macro Economy Index