February 13 Macroeconomic Index:From South China Sea Cruise to International Energy Market Outlook

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International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. The Southern Theater of the Chinese People's Liberation Army conducts routine patrols in the waters of the South China Sea

2. China Automobile Dealers Association: The comprehensive inventory coefficient of auto dealers in January was 1.40, up 22.8% month-on-month

3. Ministry of Finance: Continue to implement the preferential policy of construction fees for cultural undertakings

4. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Urge the United States and Japan to abide by the one-China principle and their own commitments, and immediately stop interfering in China's internal affairs

5. Huatai Securities: Factors such as the dilemma of heavy assets may accelerate the transformation of real estate

 International News

1. Before Powell's speech and CPI data, the U.S. index traded steadily

2. Canada's top lawmaker has vowed to impose 100% tariffs on Tesla cars in retaliation for US threats

3. Fujairah refined oil inventories: The total refined oil inventories increased by 1.917 million barrels month-on-month

4. TD Securities: The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut interest rates hawkishly next week

5. IEA: India's LNG imports will more than double by 2030

Domestic News

1. The Southern Theater of the Chinese People's Liberation Army conducts routine patrols in the waters of the South China Sea

Air Force Senior Colonel Tian Junli, spokesman for the Southern Theater, said that on February 12, the Southern Theater of the Chinese People's Liberation Army conducted a routine patrol in the waters of the South China Sea. Recently, the Philippines has repeatedly enlisted foreign countries to organize so-called "joint patrols" in an attempt to cover up the fact that it has illegally violated China's maritime rights and interests and deliberately undermined peace and stability in the South China Sea through military provocations and public outcry. China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea have sufficient historical and legal basis, and brook no objection or infringement. The theater troops will continue to maintain a high degree of alert, resolutely defend China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, and control any military activities that disrupt the South China Sea.

2. China Automobile Dealers Association: The comprehensive inventory coefficient of auto dealers in January was 1.40, up 22.8% month-on-month

The China Automobile Dealers Association released the results of the "Auto Dealer Inventory" survey in January 2025: the comprehensive inventory coefficient of auto dealers in January was 1.40, up 22.8% month-on-month and 1.4% year-on-year, and the inventory level was below the warning line and higher than the reasonable range.

3. Ministry of Finance: Continue to implement the preferential policy of construction fees for cultural undertakings

The Ministry of Finance issued a notice on the continuation of the implementation of preferential policies for the construction of cultural undertakings. From January 1, 2025 to December 31, 2027, the construction fee for cultural undertakings attributable to the central government will be reduced by 50% of the amount payable by the payment obligor; The provincial (autonomous regional, municipal) finance and party committee propaganda departments may reduce the amount of contributions within 50% of the amount payable for the construction of cultural undertakings attributable to local revenues in light of factors such as the level of local economic development and the development of propaganda, ideological and cultural undertakings.

4. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Urge the United States and Japan to abide by the one-China principle and their own commitments, and immediately stop interfering in China's internal affairs

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun held a regular press conference today (12 February). A reporter asked: According to reports, the Defense Ministers of Japan and the United States will discuss the Taiwan issue in late March. Do you have any comment? Guo Jiakun said that the United States and Japan recently issued a joint statement blatant irresponsible remarks on Taiwan-related issues and interference in China's internal affairs, and the Chinese side has lodged solemn representations with the United States and Japan to express its strong dissatisfaction. The Taiwan issue is purely China's internal affair and the core of China's core interests, which brooks no foreign interference. The US and Japanese governments have both made solemn commitments to China on the Taiwan issue, and in particular, Japan bears serious historical responsibility for Taiwan's aggression and colonial rule, so should be more cautious in its words and deeds on the Taiwan issue. We urge the United States and Japan to abide by the one-China principle and their own commitments, and immediately stop interfering in China's internal affairs and manipulating China-related issues.

5. Huatai Securities: Factors such as the dilemma of heavy assets may accelerate the transformation of real estate

Huatai Securities said that with the adjustment and bottoming of the real estate industry, as well as the relaxation of policies such as equity financing and mergers and acquisitions of real estate enterprises, a new wave of deeper transformation may be being born. The following factors may be the main driving force for real estate companies to accelerate the pace of transformation: first, affected by the adjustment of the real estate market, some smaller real estate companies are facing greater performance pressure, and the urgency of transformation is strong; Second, the space for transforming real estate enterprises to continue to carry out asset-heavy real estate business is limited; Third, some real estate companies are facing pressure to protect their shells and need to passively transform to avoid delisting; Fourth, equity financing and M&A policies have also provided more support for the transformation of real estate enterprises.

International News

1. Before Powell's speech and CPI data, the U.S. index traded steadily

The US dollar is trading steady as investors focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech and outlook for US inflation data due tonight. Testifying at the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, Powell said the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates. He will address the House Financial Services Committee at 23 o'clock tonight. Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said in a note that lower-than-expected inflation data would ease concerns about price pressures and weaken the dollar. Conversely, stronger-than-expected inflation data could support further gains in US Treasury yields and the US dollar and weigh on risk appetite.

2. Canada's top lawmaker has vowed to impose 100% tariffs on Tesla cars in retaliation for US threats

A senior Canadian lawmaker has threatened to impose a 100% tax on Musk's Tesla cars as a "surgical" retaliation for Trump's tariff threats. Christia Freeland, who resigned as Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister last month, said Canada would "inflict the biggest trade blow ever on the United States" if forced to fight back. "We will pursue U.S. stakeholders that are critical to the White House," Freeland said. "I am proposing a 100% tariff on all Tesla vehicles. I call on all tariff-affected countries to join us, and our retaliation will be directed against Trump's specific constituencies. Her threat comes as Tesla's (TSLA. O) is grappling with the global decline in sales and the possible consequences of its CEO's political views.

3. Fujairah refined oil inventories: The total refined oil inventories increased by 1.917 million barrels month-on-month

Total inventories of refined oil products at the UAE's Fujairah port stood at 20.245 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 10, up 1.917 million barrels from the previous week and the highest level in eight months, according to the latest data from the Fujairah Oil Industrial Zone in the United Arab Emirates. Among them, light distillate inventories rose by 122,000 barrels to 8.461 million barrels, maintaining their highest level since April 2023, medium distillate inventories decreased by 282,000 barrels to 1.559 million barrels, the lowest level in four months, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories increased by 2.077 million barrels to 10.225 million barrels, hitting an eight-month high.

4. TD Securities: The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut interest rates hawkishly next week

Prashant Newnaha, Asia Pacific macro strategist at TD Securities, said, "While the Australian dollar has been fairly calm amid US President Donald Trump's 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, we are skeptical that this situation can be sustained. "Traders are currently eyeing the RBA's interest rate decision next week. The RBA's 25bp rate cut next Tuesday is almost a certainty, which would be the first rate cut since late 2020, but most economists expect the tone to be hawkish given the strength of the labour market. "The RBA is expected to announce a hawkish rate cut, with limited guidance on the outlook for subsequent rate cuts, as there is no urgent need for a rate cut by the RBA, and the economic activity data does not provide a case for a rate cut," Newnaha said. ”

5. IEA: India's LNG imports will more than double by 2030

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India's LNG purchases will more than double by 2030, as infrastructure expansion and modest growth in domestic production drive a jump in consumption. Demand for the ultra-cold fuel, the world's fourth-largest gas buyer, will increase to 64 billion cubic meters per year by 2030, up from 36 billion cubic meters last year, according to the IEA's latest report on India's natural gas market released on Wednesday. This means that by the end of the decade, the annual growth rate will reach 11%, which is double the average growth rate of the past decade. Keisuke Sadamori, Director of Marketing and Security at IEA, said: "The Indian gas market is entering a new phase of growth, supported by infrastructure development and clear policy direction. ”

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