February 19 Macroeconomic Index:Overview of global financial trends - from China’s trillion-level financial management market to international monetary policy adjustments

Latest Global Major Index

International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. Keeping a good start in January! Bank wealth management may have exceeded 30 trillion trillion-level companies, and the number of trillion-level companies has expanded to 13

2. Li Auto's "first change" at the beginning of the year: President Ma Donghui was promoted to the "No. 1 position" in the smart car strategy, and Li Xiang's attention shifted to AI

3. Central Clearing Company: reduce the cost of some business settlement services

4. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is strongly dissatisfied with and resolutely opposes the erroneous practice of the US government announcing the adjustment of aluminum import tariffs

5. Wang Weizhong, Governor of Guangdong Province: Encourage autonomous driving technology companies and vehicle manufacturers to strengthen in-depth cooperation

 International News

1. The Russian-American-Saudi talk excluded Ukraine

2. Standard Chartered Bank: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut interest rates by 50BP, and it is unlikely that there will be an accident

3. Israeli Defense Minister: Israeli forces will enforce a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon

4. Westpac Bank: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut interest rates by 50BP or slow down after February

5. Institutions: The Bank of England is likely to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year

Domestic News

1. Keeping a good start in January! Bank wealth management may have exceeded 30 trillion trillion-level companies, and the number of trillion-level companies has expanded to 13

According to the data summarized by the reporter from the channel, the total balance of the existing products of 14 major wealth management companies at the end of January increased by about 76 billion yuan compared with the end of last year, with a total scale of 22.5 trillion yuan, accounting for more than eighty percent of the share of wealth management companies. According to the above increase, based on the 2024 wealth management market annual report data of 29.94 trillion yuan, the total size of the wealth management market may have returned to the 30 trillion mark in January this year, at least approaching 30 trillion yuan, in the absence of a significant reduction in the stock balance of the remaining wealth management companies and banking institutions. According to the reporter's tracking and study, in 2024, the scale of many institutions such as Huaxia Wealth Management, China Post Wealth Management, SPDB Wealth Management and Bank of Communications Wealth Management increased by more than 30%. At the end of January this year, the scale of China Post's wealth management exceeded 1 trillion yuan, becoming the 13th wealth management company with a scale of more than 1 trillion yuan after Minsheng Wealth Management; At the same time, CNCBI Wealth Management, which is second only to CMB Wealth Management and IB Wealth Management, also exceeded the 2 trillion mark in January this year, returning to the third place in the industry. (Bond China Agency)

2. Li Auto's "first change" at the beginning of the year: President Ma Donghui was promoted to the "No. 1 position" in the smart car strategy, and Li Xiang's attention shifted to AI

It was learned from a number of sources that the strategy committee, the highest decision-making level of Li Auto Company, reviewed and approved the "Intelligent Vehicle Strategic Closed-loop Management Plan", and the result of the review was that President Ma Donghui served as the person in charge of the intelligent vehicle strategy, responsible for the planning and implementation of strategic goals related to the intelligent vehicle business. In terms of organization, in order to support Ma Donghui to carry out relevant business, the committee decided to let Ma Donghui serve as the director of the "Production, Supply and Marketing Liaison Association". The Director of the original supply and marketing liaison meeting is Li Xiang, Chairman and CEO of Li Auto. (21 Finance)

3. Central Clearing Company: reduce the cost of some business settlement services

On February 18, the Central Depository and Clearing Co., Ltd. issued a notice on reducing the fees of some business settlement services. According to the notice, the settlement fee for cash bond transactions of corporate bonds (including railway bonds) will be discounted by 50%; 100% waiver of both sides of the operation fee for buy-and-sell market-making support; 80% discount on bond settlement and transfer fees after settlement failure. According to the notice, the above preferential measures will be valid from January 1, 2025 to December 31, 2027. For the relevant expenses that have been actually paid for the above-mentioned business after January 1, 2025 (inclusive), the company will refund the part of the reduction and exemption to which the above provisions apply.

4. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is strongly dissatisfied with and resolutely opposes the erroneous practice of the US government announcing the adjustment of aluminum import tariffs

The U.S. approach will have an impact on the global industrial and supply chains. The aluminum industry is an important part of the global supply chain, the United States will disrupt the supply and demand balance of global aluminum and related industries, resulting in price fluctuations, affecting the interests of global aluminum producers, traders and consumers and related supply chain enterprises, not only by the WTO member countries, but also caused by the Canadian Aluminum Association, the European Aluminum Association, the British Aluminum Federation, the Vietnam Aluminum Profile Association and other aspects of the concern and dissatisfaction, resulting in Alcoa, Hydro, Rusal, Indian Aluminum Industries, Large multinational aluminum groups such as Emirates Aluminium are facing the risk of global operation, and have also been criticized and blamed in the United States. In fact, the United States implements unilateralism and protectionism to seek a "protective umbrella" and "safe haven" for its aluminum industry, which has backward technology, low energy consumption, high carbon emissions and weak competitiveness. The international community generally believes that the Section 232 tariffs have exacerbated trade protectionism, which runs counter to the collaborative needs of the global aluminum industry chain and has an impact on the global supply chain. (Nonferrous Metals Association)

5. Wang Weizhong, Governor of Guangdong Province: Encourage autonomous driving technology companies and vehicle manufacturers to strengthen in-depth cooperation

From February 17th to 18th, Wang Weizhong, Governor of Guangdong Province, went to Haizhu District, Huangpu District, Panyu District and Nansha District of Guangzhou City to go deep into the front line of scientific and technological innovation enterprises and new R&D institutions, and carry out special research on the construction of a modern industrial system. Wang Weizhong walked into Guangzhou Pony.ai Technology Co., Ltd. to inspect the R&D and application of autonomous driving systems. He said that Guangzhou, as a big city in the automobile industry, has a solid foundation for the development of the autonomous driving industry, and it is necessary to support enterprises to increase R&D investment around core technologies such as autonomous driving algorithms, chips, and systems, continue to improve the level of intelligence and safety, and encourage autonomous driving technology companies to strengthen in-depth cooperation with vehicle manufacturers, and work together to promote the rapid productization and industrialization of innovative technological achievements. (South+)

International News

1. The Russian-American-Saudi talk excluded Ukraine

This morning (February 18) local time, the delegations of Russia and the United States began to hold talks in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, and Ukraine was not invited to participate in the talks. According to Russian media reports, Russian representatives participating in the negotiations included Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov, and Russian direct investment fund General Manager Dmitriev. U.S. representatives include U.S. Secretary of State Rubio, U.S. National Security Advisor Waltz, and U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East Witkoff. (CCTV International News)

2. Standard Chartered Bank: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut interest rates by 50BP, and it is unlikely that there will be an accident

Standard Chartered Bank analysis pointed out that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its meeting on February 19, and it is unlikely that there will be a surprise. The Fed has previously communicated well about this move, and we think the likelihood of an unexpected surprise in either direction is low. On the risk side, we believe the RBNZ is likely to ease monetary policy more aggressively in Q2 (relative to a single 25bp benchmark for rate cuts) if economic data remains subdued in order to return rates to neutral (2.5-3.5%) more quickly.

3. Israeli Defense Minister: Israeli forces will enforce a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon

On the 18th local time, Israeli Defense Minister Katz said in a statement that the IDF will enforce a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon and take action to deal with any threat from Allah, because Israeli troops are still stationed in five strategic locations. Katz also said that Allah must completely withdraw from the Litani River and that the Lebanese army must be carried out and disarmed under the supervision of mechanisms established by the United States.

4. Westpac Bank: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut interest rates by 50BP or slow down after February

Westpac economist Kelly said the RBNZ is likely to cut the official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 3.75% tomorrow, but expects the pace of easing to slow after February. However, he said the RBNZ is also likely to cut the OCR further in an attempt to bring it down to neutral faster. It is possible that the RBNZ will present a dovish scenario at its meeting, signaling its intention to adjust the OCR to neutral levels more quickly by hinting at a reduction in the OCR to 3% by mid-2025. He said this would indicate that the RBNZ is highly likely to cut interest rates by a further 50 basis points in its April assessment.

5. Institutions: The Bank of England is likely to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year

Luke Bartholomew, Senior economist at investment firm Abrdn, said in a note that the impact of UK employers' National Insurance contributions and the imminent rise in the national living wage could prompt the Bank of England to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. Tuesday's data showed that average wage growth picked up to 5.9% by the end of 2024, and for now, rate cuts will remain gradual. The biggest test, however, will be how the labor market reacts to the changes announced in the government's autumn budget. There are clear signs that hiring intentions are expected to cool. If economic growth remains very slow, then there is a clear possibility that the Bank of England will cut interest rates faster in the second half of the year.

Domestic Macro Economy Index