February 26 Macroeconomic Index:Global Perspective: From China’s crude oil transportation market rebound to international energy and geopolitical dynamics

Latest Global Major Index

International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. Shanghai Aviation Exchange: The freight rate of VLCC tankers in the global crude oil transportation market has rebounded sharply

2. In 2025, the No. 1 document of the Central Committee first mentioned "new quality agricultural productive forces"

3. Released the country's first vertical field emergency management government big model - "Ning Anqing"

4. Support the development of smart agriculture and expand the application scenarios of artificial intelligence, data, low-altitude and other technologies

5. Improve the open source ecosystem, build an advanced open source service system, create an open source innovation service system with all elements and highlights, and cultivate a group of professional open source service providers

 International News

1. S&P Global: OPEC+ is not expected to increase production in 2025

2. European natural gas prices continue to fall, geopolitical risks are eased, and the weather is warmer to suppress gas prices

3. The Iranian side said that oil exports from the Kurd region are expected to be ready in two days

4. The EU and Israel will meet to discuss the future of Gaza

5. Iraqi oil official: Exports are expected to rise by 185,000 b/d

Domestic News

1. Shanghai Aviation Exchange: The freight rate of VLCC tankers in the global crude oil transportation market has rebounded sharply

On February 22, the official WeChat account of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange released a weekly report on China's foreign trade import oil tanker transportation market, showing that the freight rate of VLCC oil tankers in the global crude oil transportation market has rebounded significantly. China's import VLCC transportation market freight rates have risen sharply. On February 20, the China Crude Oil Import Composite Index (CTFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange was reported at 1,328.35 points, up 16.8% from February 13.

2. In 2025, the No. 1 document of the Central Committee first mentioned "new quality agricultural productive forces"

In 2025, the No. 1 document of the central government first mentioned "new quality productive forces of agriculture". From the institutional level and policy level, we should build an institutional mechanism that adapts to the development of new quality productive forces to support the modernization of agriculture and rural areas. At the same time, it is necessary to build a scientific and technological innovation system for agriculture, improve the ability and level of scientific and technological innovation, and build our independent innovation platform.

3. Released the country's first vertical field emergency management government big model - "Ning Anqing"

"Ning Anqing", the country's first vertical field emergency management government big model, was released. "Ning Anqing" is based on the deep customization and development of the DeepSeek-R1-671B full-blooded version of the large model deployed by Nanjing Government Cloud, and is the first professional department agent of "My Nanjing" government affairs version.

4. Support the development of smart agriculture and expand the application scenarios of artificial intelligence, data, low-altitude and other technologies

Continue to promote the industrialization of biological breeding. Promote the high-quality development of agricultural machinery and equipment, accelerate the research and development and application of domestic advanced and applicable agricultural machinery and equipment, and promote the scrapping and renewal of old agricultural machinery. Support the development of smart agriculture and expand the application scenarios of artificial intelligence, data, low-altitude and other technologies.

5. Improve the open source ecosystem, build an advanced open source service system, create an open source innovation service system with all elements and highlights, and cultivate a group of professional open source service providers

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will adhere to innovation-driven and application-driven to create a good development environment for developers. Among them, it is necessary to play a good innovative "first move". Enhance key technological innovation capabilities and fully unleash the wisdom and talents of developers in the new era. Strengthen the technology supply of open source frameworks and open source models, accelerate the adaptation of software and hardware, and promote the technology iteration and industrial upgrading of large models. Improve the open source ecosystem, build an advanced open source service system, create an open source innovation service system with all elements and highlights, and cultivate a group of professional open source service providers.

International News

1. S&P Global: OPEC+ is not expected to increase production in 2025

Shin Kim, head of S&P Global Commodity Insights, said OPEC+ is not expected to raise oil production this year due to current market dynamics. Despite Trump's call to lower oil prices, OPEC and its allies will soon decide whether to maintain plans to gradually ramp up production starting in April. "There's a lot of politics, there's a lot of pressure," Kim said, noting that she also referred to the financial demands of OPEC+ members, "but there's no more room now," especially given the rising production from non-OPEC+ members outside the United States.

2. European natural gas prices continue to fall, geopolitical risks are eased, and the weather is warmer to suppress gas prices

European gas prices continue to slide, below 50 euros per megawatt hour, due to warmer weather forecasts in the European Union and optimistic expectations of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. The Dutch TTF contract, the European benchmark for natural gas futures, was trading down 3.9% at 45.35 euros per megawatt hour. Natural gas prices hit a two-year high in mid-February due to strong demand and rapid depletion of inventories, followed by a sharp sell-off as the US and Russia agreed to begin talks to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. JPMorgan analysts said in a report that the global natural gas and liquefied natural gas markets remain tight despite warmer weather forecasts. An official notification on European gas regulations is expected next week, and initial discussions suggest that storage regulations could become more flexible. EU member states are now required to fill gas storage facilities to at least 90% capacity by November 1.

3. The Iranian side said that oil exports from the Kurd region are expected to be ready in two days

Iraq's Oil Minister, Hayan Abdel-Ghani, said on Monday that Iran is awaiting approval from Turkey to restart crude oil pipeline shipments from Iraq's Kurdistan region. He revealed at a press conference that crude oil exports from the Kurdistan region are expected to be ready within two days. When asked about the specific timeline for the recovery, Ghani said the issues would be resolved within a week. The Kurdistan regional government said in a statement on Sunday that it had reached an agreement with the federal oil ministry to restart crude oil exports from the region based on existing production capacity. Turkey halted the pipeline in March 2023 after the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) ordered Turkey to pay $1.5 billion in compensation to Iraq for unauthorized exports between 2014 and 2018. According to the sources, the Trump administration is pressuring Iraq to resume oil exports from the reservoir area or face the same level of sanctions as Iran. Iraqi officials, however, subsequently denied that there was external pressure or the threat of sanctions. Analysts pointed out that if crude oil exports from the reservoir area can resume quickly, it will effectively hedge the potential supply gap caused by the United States' "maximum pressure" policy on Iran.

4. The EU and Israel will meet to discuss the future of Gaza

Israeli Foreign Minister Sa’ar will meet with senior European officials in Brussels on Monday to resume dialogue with the European Union. Following a ceasefire agreement reached last month, the EU is considering a role in the reconstruction of Gaza. Saar will co-chair a meeting of the EU-Israel Association Council with EU foreign policy chief Kallas, the first of its kind since 2022, which will focus on the humanitarian situation in Gaza, Israeli-Palestinian relations and changing regional dynamics. Haim Regev, Israel's ambassador to the EU, said: "Monday's meeting is an important opportunity to reaffirm and strengthen Israel's partnership with the EU. ”

5. Iraqi oil official: Exports are expected to rise by 185,000 b/d

Iraq's Deputy Oil Minister, Bassim Mohammed, said on Sunday that Iraq would export 185,000 barrels of oil per day from oil fields in the Kurdistan region of the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, gradually increasing to 400,000 barrels per day. Bassim revealed that there is no specific timeline, but expects a response from Turkey within 24 hours. Bassim said the production capacity of Kurdistan region's fields is 300,000 b/d, some of which will be used for domestic use, and the remaining 185,000 b/d will be for export. Iraq's Oil Ministry said on Saturday that all procedures for resuming exports from the Iraq-Turkey pipeline had been completed, which could resolve a dispute that lasted nearly two years and disrupted the flow of crude oil. However, the resumption of pipeline shipments could put Iraq in a dilemma, with Baghdad obliged to cut crude oil production as part of the OPEC+ deal, while US President Donald Trump called on OPEC+ to lower oil prices.

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