February 5 Macroeconomic Index:Policies help stabilize the real estate market, while the international situation and energy price fluctuations coexist

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International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. The effect of the policies of promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize has appeared, and the decline in the sales area of newly built commercial housing has continued to narrow

2. Hong Kong's economy is in a state of steady progress

3. Asia's first cylindrical floating production, storage and offloading unit (FPS0) made in China — Haikui-1

4. The Spring Festival is the peak period for juice consumption, and this year's Spring Festival sales increased by 2-3 times month-on-month

5. Zou Lan, Member of the Party Committee of the Central Bank: The Central Bank will improve the convenience of using policy tools and push the incremental expansion of the tools in a timely manner

 International News

1. Kremlin: The EU's decision to increase defense spending is harmful to Europeans

2. During the Spring Festival, TTF rose and HH fell, how will natural gas prices perform in the future?

3. The Trump administration claims may restructure the U.S. Agency for International Development

4. US gasoline prices could rise by 15 cents per gallon due to Trump tariffs

5. The U.S. Treasury lowered its first-quarter borrowing estimate to $815 billion

Domestic News

1. The effect of the policies of promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize has appeared, and the decline in the sales area of newly built commercial housing has continued to narrow

Since the fourth quarter of 2024, as the policy mix effect continues to be released, market expectations and confidence have improved significantly, and positive changes have occurred in the capital market and real estate market. The effect of the policy of promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize has appeared, the decline in the sales area of newly built commercial housing has continued to narrow, and the real estate production index has grown for three consecutive months since it turned positive in October.

2. Hong Kong's economy is in a state of steady progress

Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan: The pre-estimated economic estimates for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2024 will be released, showing that Hong Kong's economy is in a stable and progressive trend. In addition, the job market remains good and inflation remains moderate, allowing Hong Kong's economy to start the year on a steady note.

3. Asia's first cylindrical floating production, storage and offloading unit (FPS0) made in China — Haikui-1

Haikui-1, Asia's first cylindrical floating production, storage and offloading unit (FPS0) made in China, is an offshore oil and gas production facility integrating production and processing, storage and export, life and power supply, and is known as an "offshore oil factory".

4. The Spring Festival is the peak period for juice consumption, and this year's Spring Festival sales increased by 2-3 times month-on-month

The Spring Festival is the peak period for fruit juice consumption, and sale volume during this year's Spring Festival increased by 2-3 times month-on-month. After more than 10 years of market cultivation, HPP juice has entered a period of rapid development. The popularity of niche commodities represented by HPP juice is an example of the integration and upgrading of domestic consumer market segments and industries.

5. Zou Lan, Member of the Party Committee of the Central Bank: The Central Bank will improve the convenience of using policy tools and push the incremental expansion of the tools in a timely manner

Since May 17, 2024, when the central government proposed to purchase the stock of commercial housing for affordable housing, more than 60 cities across the country have expressed their support for the "collection and storage" work. More than 10 cities such as Guiyang, Changchun, and Baoding have acquired commercial housing projects, raising more than 150,000 sets of affordable housing.

International News

1. Kremlin: The EU's decision to increase defense spending is harmful to Europeans

Kremlin spokesman Peskov said that the EU's decision to increase defense spending under the pretext of the Russian threat is short-sighted and harmful to every European. Peskov said that "militaristic" attitudes prevailed in Europe. "They are increasing military and defense spending under the pretext of a short-lived threat from Russia. On the one hand, increased defense spending has put the European economy into a zone of serious discomfort, in a pre-crisis state. Obviously, additional spending will have a rather negative impact and will further worsen the economic situation in Europe and hurt every European. "They did so without considering whether Russia's security concerns should be taken into account, or whether they should have a dialogue with Russia."

2. During the Spring Festival, TTF rose and HH fell, how will natural gas prices perform in the future?

After the previous decline was realized, the U.S. natural gas futures March-April contract has been in a relatively reasonable range of 3-3.5, and the contradiction between supply and demand is not significant for the time being, and the Trump administration's tariff policy will still be the primary variable that determines the market direction for a period of time in the future. On the evening of February 3, local time, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau said that Canada will cooperate with the United States' policies to combat illegal immigration, and the United States will suspend tariffs on Canada for at least 30 days. Focus on the possibility of subsequent recurrence of the US-Canada trade dispute.

3. The Trump administration claims may restructure the U.S. Agency for International Development

The U.S. State Department issued a statement on the 3rd, saying that U.S. Secretary of State Rubio, as acting administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development, notified the U.S. Congress to conduct a review of USAID's foreign aid activities and "look at a possible reorganization." "USAID has long deviated from its original purpose of responsibly advancing U.S. interests abroad," the statement said. It is now abundantly clear that a large portion of USAID's funding is not aligned with core U.S. national interests" and to that end, Trump appointed Rubio as acting administrator to gain better control of the agency. Rubio said in an interview with the US media on the 3rd that the Trump administration tried to reform the US Agency for International Development, but was met with "blatant disobedience" and "complete non-cooperation", so "only major measures can be taken to control the situation". Rubio did not say whether USAID would be integrated into the State Department.

4. US gasoline prices could rise by 15 cents per gallon due to Trump tariffs

The U.S. is preparing to impose tariffs of 10% on oil and refined products imports from Canada, which may disrupt the U.S. refining and fuel oil markets, which are accustomed to importing about 4 million barrels of crude oil per day from Canada. Mexico has also been threatened by U.S. trade restrictions, even though Mr. Trump allowed tariffs to be imposed a month later on Monday. "If the 10 percent tariff were passed on to consumers, it would increase the price of gasoline and diesel by about 15 cents per gallon," said Andy Lipow, an analyst at Lipow 0il Associates. ”

5. The U.S. Treasury lowered its first-quarter borrowing estimate to $815 billion

The U.S. Treasury Department lowered its estimate of federal borrowing for the current quarter, now expecting net borrowing from January to March at $815 billion, slightly lower than the $823 billion forecast in October. The Department said the downward revision was mainly due to higher-than-expected cash at the start of the quarter. At the same time, the Department reiterated its previous forecast for the cash balance at the end of March, assuming that Congress will take action to raise or suspend the debt ceiling. The estimates are part of the U.S. debt management team's quarterly debt refinancing program, and Bessant first took the helm of as Treasury Secretary to U.S. President Donald Trump. As of last Thursday local time, the U.S. Treasury had a cash balance of about $826 billion. The U.S. Treasury Department said it expects net borrowing of $123 billion in the April-June quarter, assuming a cash balance of $850 billion at the end of the quarter. The data likewise assumes that the debt ceiling issue is resolved.

Domestic Macro Economy Index