February 7 Macroeconomic Index:New energy development, financial market adjustment and regional economic dynamics

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International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. PetroChina established a new energy company in Jilin with 730 million yuan, including new energy vehicle related business

2. CFFEX: Increase the deliverable treasury bonds of the 5-year treasury bond futures contract

3. Ministry of Commerce: The consumer market will continue to show a steady growth trend in the first quarter

4. CMOC China Achieves "Good Start in January"

5. Xiangcai Securities: continue to be optimistic about the revaluation of power assets

 International News

1. The Mongolian government said it planned to expand the rail connection with China, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded

2. The international community generally opposes Trump's rhetoric about taking over Gaza, Foreign Ministry: Gaza cannot be the object of the jungle rule

3. IG: UK economic data supports interest rate cut expectations, focus on February economic forecasts

4. HSBC: Australia's states are economically divided, with smaller states likely to continue to lead in 2025

5. Citigroup: Brent crude may be under pressure in the second half of the year because the supply growth of Non-OPEC+ exceeds demand

Domestic News

1. PetroChina established a new energy company in Jilin with 730 million yuan, including new energy vehicle related business

Tianyancha App shows that recently, PetroChina Jiyou (Qian'an) New Energy Co., Ltd. was established, the legal representative is Peng Jun, with a registered capital of about 730 million yuan, and its business scope includes power generation business, transmission business, power supply (distribution) business, wind power generation technical services, photovoltaic equipment and components sales, solar power generation technology services, emerging energy technology research and development, new energy vehicle battery swap facilities sales, centralized fast charging stations, charging pile sales, new energy vehicle electrical accessories sales, etc. The shareholding panorama shows that the company is wholly owned by PetroChina Taihu (Beijing) Investment Co., Ltd., which is a wholly-owned subsidiary of PetroChina.

2. CFFEX: Increase the deliverable treasury bonds of the 5-year treasury bond futures contract

The 2025 book-entry interest-bearing (III) treasury bonds have been tendered for issuance. According to the Detailed Rules for the Delivery of Treasury Bond Futures Contracts of the China Financial Futures Exchange and related regulations, the treasury bonds meet the conditions for deliverable treasury bonds of TF2503, TF2506 and TF2509 contracts, with conversion factors of 0.9303, 0.9336 and 0.9370 respectively. The treasury bonds are included in the scope of deliverable treasury bonds of TF2503, TF2506 and TF2509 starting from the next trading day after the listing trading date, and can be used for declaration of intention to deliver.

3. Ministry of Commerce: The consumer market will continue to show a steady growth trend in the first quarter

He Yongqian, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, said that China's consumer market is resilient, has great potential and vitality, and the basic trend of rebounding has not changed. With the expansion of the trade-in policy for consumer goods and the orderly development of various consumption promotion activities, the overall consumer market will continue to show a steady growth trend in the first quarter. According to the business big data monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, during the Spring Festival in 2025, the sales of key retail and catering enterprises across the country increased by 4.1% year-on-year, and the consumer market achieved a stable start. At the same time, the consumption of goods and services during the Spring Festival showed a significant increase. In terms of commodity consumption, the sales of household appliances and communication equipment of key monitoring retail enterprises increased by more than 10% year-on-year. In terms of service consumption, the total domestic travel expenditure during the Spring Festival holiday was 677 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%; The number of domestic trips was 500 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%.

4. CMOC China Achieves "Good Start in January"

According to CMOC, in January this year, 103.3% of the planned ore processing capacity in China was completed, 109.2%, 110.9% and 121.3% of the molybdenum, tungsten and iron concentrate production were completed, 106% of the planned ferro-molybdenum and 109.5% of the APT were completed. The goal set in January was successfully completed, laying a solid foundation for striving to win the "good start" in the first quarter and unswervingly completing the annual business target.

5. Xiangcai Securities: continue to be optimistic about the revaluation of power assets

According to the research report of Xiangcai Securities, the proportion of traditional fossil energy use will continue to decline in the context of clean and low-carbon energy transformation, the level of electrification of terminal energy will continue to increase, and power consumption is expected to grow steadily in the long run. The pace of electricity reform has accelerated, the construction of a unified national electricity market has accelerated, and we continue to be optimistic about the revaluation of power assets. It is recommended to pay attention to the leading regional thermal power enterprises with tight supply and demand patterns and good electricity price support, as well as water core faucets with strong performance stability and high dividend rate. The establishment and improvement of the new power system is conducive to the high-quality development of new energy, and we will continue to be optimistic about the improvement of green power consumption and the realization of environmental value in the long term.

International News

1. The Mongolian government said it planned to expand the rail connection with China, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded

At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on February 6, a reporter asked that the Mongolian government said that it plans to expand the railway connection with China, and this agreement will be finalized during the visit of the Mongolian Prime Minister to China from February 13 to 15. Could the Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirm the visit and provide us with an overview of the arrangements for the visit? Guo Jiakun said that China and Mongolia are friendly neighbors linked by mountains and rivers, and the two countries have maintained close exchanges at all levels, and the two sides have been committed to strengthening connectivity and deepening mutually beneficial cooperation in various fields. "Regarding the specific arrangements and cooperation matters of high-level exchanges you mentioned, if there is relevant news, we will release it in a timely manner, please pay attention to it."

2. The international community generally opposes Trump's rhetoric about taking over Gaza, Foreign Ministry: Gaza cannot be the object of the jungle rule

At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on February 6, a reporter asked about the widespread opposition of the international community after US President Trump proposed that he wanted to empty and take over Gaza. Do you have any comment? Guo Jiakun said that China firmly supports the legitimate national rights of the Palestinian people, and always believes that "Palestinians governing Palestinians" is an important principle that must be adhered to in the post-war governance of Gaza, and opposes the forced relocation of people in Gaza. Gaza is the Gaza of the Palestinians and an integral part of the Palestinian territory. China is ready to work with the international community to take the two-State solution as the fundamental way out and promote an early and just political settlement of the Palestinian question.

3. IG: UK economic data supports interest rate cut expectations, focus on February economic forecasts

Chris Beauchamp, market analyst at IG Group, noted that recent economic data has strengthened the case for the Bank of England to ease monetary policy. Inflation in the UK continues to fall, economic growth remains subdued, and the labor market is showing signs of cooling. Governor Bailey's statement will play an important role in the pace and extent of future rate cuts. Economic forecasts for February could provide a case for a rate cut. These predictions will be closely watched by traders. Any downward revision could strengthen the case for monetary easing. The benchmark scenario is a 25bp rate cut, with guidance recommending a gradual rate cut in 2025. A more dovish surprise could be the Bank of England signaling a faster pace of rate cuts. The most unlikely, but most impactful, scenario is a massive 50 basis point rate cut, which could trigger significant market volatility across asset classes.

4. HSBC: Australia's states are economically divided, with smaller states likely to continue to lead in 2025

Economic activity in Australia has cooled, but larger states such as Victoria have slowed more and smaller states such as Western Australia have been more resilient, according to HSBC Global Research economists. Smaller states are likely to continue to outperform in 2025 as fiscal challenges, pandemic policies, and post-pandemic behavioral changes impact immigration patterns and housing markets. The affordability of small states has attracted individuals, companies, and public agencies that allow for more flexible work arrangements. While Victoria's public debt has risen sharply, making it one of the most indebted state governments in the world outside the US, Western Australia has benefited from strong economic activity, high commodity prices and favourable GST arrangements.

5. Citigroup: Brent crude may be under pressure in the second half of the year because the supply growth of Non-OPEC+ exceeds demand

Francesco Martoccia, a strategist at Citigroup Energy, said in a research note that it is increasingly likely that Brent crude oil prices will remain at $60-65 per barrel through the second half of the year. From the second quarter to the fourth quarter, the growth of oil supply from non-OPEC+ countries will still outpace the weak global demand growth, and the oil market will turn into a surplus. Martoccia remains strongly convinced that Trump could end up having a bearish impact on the oil market. He pointed out that Trump has been emphasizing that lowering energy prices is the core solution to problems such as inflation in the United States.

Domestic Macro Economy Index