January 16 Macroeconomic Index:The country strengthens trade sovereignty and new energy development, while the international community focuses on economic recovery and policy adjustments.

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Domestic News

1. The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce issued a statement on the recent series of China-related trade restrictions by the United States: Measures will be taken to resolutely safeguard sovereignty, security and development interests

2. OSE will develop the "Shanghai Natural Rubber Future" contract, which is scheduled to be listed on May 26, 2025

3. CPCA: From January 1 to 12, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 206,000, a year-on-year increase of 8%

4. Ministry of Commerce: Intensify the implementation of the "two new" policies to promote the trade-in of consumer goods to achieve greater results

5. The Ministry of Commerce responds to China's export control of dual-use items: it has always been prudent and moderate

 International News

1. US CPI rose slightly more than expected in December

2. The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index fell for the second day in a row

3. Economists say the ECB will cut interest rates four more times by the middle of the year

4. OPEC: The world economy is expected to continue to maintain strong growth next year, supported by relatively stable growth in major economies

5. The G20 Framework Working Group meeting was held in Cape Town, South Africa

Domestic News

1. The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce issued a statement on the recent series of China-related trade restrictions by the United States: Measures will be taken to resolutely safeguard sovereignty, security and development interests

For some time, the Biden administration has used the remaining term to intensively introduce China-related trade restrictions, escalating export controls on semiconductors to China on the grounds of so-called national security, restricting the use of China's connected car software and hardware and vehicles in the United States, launching information and communication technology and service security reviews of unmanned aerial systems in China and other countries, and sanctioning a number of Chinese companies. In addition, a number of Chinese entities are listed as "notorious markets". China strongly deplores and resolutely opposes this. The Biden administration will not be able to stop China's progress by relying on sanctions, containment, and suppression, but will only enhance China's confidence and ability to become self-reliant and self-reliant, and innovate in science and technology. China will take measures to resolutely safeguard its sovereignty, security and development interests.

2. OSE will develop the "Shanghai Natural Rubber Future" contract, which is scheduled to be listed on May 26, 2025

On January 15, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Osaka Exchange (OSE) jointly held a seminar on the signing and release of the authorization of the delivery and settlement price of natural rubber futures and the high-quality development of the global natural rubber industry in Shanghai. According to reports, OSE will develop a "Shanghai Natural Rubber Futures" contract settled in yen and cash-delivered based on the delivery settlement price of natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and plans to be listed on OSE on May 26, 2025. Tian Xiangyang, Chairman of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, said that the Shanghai Futures Exchange's authorization of the natural rubber futures delivery settlement price to OSE, and its listing of natural rubber futures contracts for cash settlement based on the delivery and settlement price of natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is a specific measure for the Shanghai Futures Exchange to accelerate the implementation of the opinions on the opening up of the capital market and the high-quality development of the futures market, and accelerate the construction of a world-class exchange.

3. CPCA: From January 1 to 12, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 206,000, a year-on-year increase of 8%

According to the data of CPCA, from January 1 to 12, the passenger car market retailed 533,000 units, down 21% year-on-year, down 36% month-on-month, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 533,000 units, down 21% year-on-year. From January 1 to 12, the national passenger car manufacturers wholesaled 689,000 units, an increase of 14% year-on-year, a decrease of 23% from the same period last month, and a total of 689,000 wholesalers this year, a year-on-year increase of 14%. From January 1 to 12, the new energy passenger vehicle market retailed 206,000 units, an increase of 8% year-on-year in the same period last year, a decrease of 50% from the same period last month, and a total of 206,000 units retailed this year, a year-on-year increase of 8%; From January 1 to 12, the national passenger car manufacturers wholesaled 261,000 new energy vehicles, an increase of 45% year-on-year, and a decrease of 42% from the same period last month, and a total of 261,000 wholesalers this year, a year-on-year increase of 45%.

4. Ministry of Commerce: Intensify the implementation of the "two new" policies to promote the trade-in of consumer goods to achieve greater results

According to the website of the Ministry of Commerce, on January 13, the National Consumer Goods Trade-in Work Promotion Television and Telephone Conference was held in Beijing. The meeting stressed that in 2025, in accordance with the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference, we should strengthen the implementation of the "two new" policies and promote the trade-in of consumer goods to achieve greater results. It is necessary to pay close attention to the continuous implementation of policies, optimize the work promotion mechanism system, and further strengthen departmental coordination and central and local linkage, so as to form a joint work force. It is necessary to strengthen the empowerment of digital intelligence, continue to improve the level of convenient services, and do a good job in policy publicity and interpretation and risk prevention in depth meticulously, so that the masses can understand the policies more clearly and enjoy the benefits.

5. The Ministry of Commerce responds to China's export control of dual-use items: it has always been prudent and moderate

The Information Office of the State Council held a press conference, and the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Commerce introduced the high-quality development of commercial work services. Some media asked questions on topics related to export control. The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Commerce said that the Chinese government has always been prudent and moderate in implementing export controls, with the aim of safeguarding national security and better fulfilling international obligations. Recently, we have listed dual-use items with obvious dual-use attributes. China's implementation of export controls on these items reflects its firm position of maintaining world peace and stability in the surrounding region, which is conducive to China's own security and the realization of global common security.

International News

1. US CPI rose slightly more than expected in December

U. S. CPI rose slightly more than expected in December as the cost of energy products rose, suggesting that inflation was still rising, in line with expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates by a smaller margin this year. The headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m and 2.9% y/y in December. Core CPI has risen 0.3% m/m for the fourth consecutive month and 3.2% y/y. Efforts to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target ran into a hampered in the second half of last year. A strong economy, the threat of broad tariffs on imports, and mass deportations of undocumented immigrants have also prompted the Fed to expect smaller rate cuts this year. In addition, Trump has also promised tax cuts, which would stimulate the economy; Consumers' inflation expectations soared in January, with households worried that tariffs would raise the price of goods. The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates in January.

2. The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index fell for the second day in a row

The Baltic Dry Bulk Index fell for the second consecutive day on Wednesday as freight rates for all ship types fell. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell 17 points to 1,063, hitting an intraday high of more than a month. The Capesize Index (BCI) fell 23 points to 1,581. The average daily profit of capesize vessels fell by $191 to $13,109. The Panamax Index (BPI) fell 12 points to 894, marking the sixth consecutive day of decline. The average daily profit of Panamax ships fell by $108 to $8,050. The Supramax Bulk Carrier Index (BSI) slipped 15 points to 783, a 17-month low.

3. Economists say the ECB will cut interest rates four more times by the middle of the year

According to a majority of economists polled by Reuters, the ECB will extend its action to cut interest rates at least until July to protect the weakened euro zone economy, which faces the imminent threat of U.S. tariffs. In a Jan 10-15 poll, all 77 economists said the deposit rate would fall another 25 basis points to 2.75% on Jan 30. A majority of 60% (46 out of 77) expect three more rate cuts by the middle of the year, one in March and two in the second quarter, bringing the deposit rate to 2.00%.

4. OPEC: The world economy is expected to continue to maintain strong growth next year, supported by relatively stable growth in major economies

OPEC pointed out in its monthly report that the world economy is expected to continue to maintain strong growth of 3.2% in 2026, supported by relatively stable growth in major economies. This is slightly higher than the projected growth rate of 3.1% in 2025, reflecting the continued and sustainable expansion of the global economy. Among the OECD economies, the US economy is expected to grow further at a solid pace, while modest growth in the euro zone and Japan is expected to improve gradually. Among the non-OECD economies, major oil consumers such as China and India, as well as other developing Asian economies, are expected to maintain strong growth and contribute significantly to the global economic expansion. In addition, OPEC expects inflation to continue to normalize through 2026, supporting further monetary policy adjustments in major economies. Despite the prevailing uncertainty, the services sector is expected to drive global economic growth, while the industrial sector is expected to recover gradually. Global oil demand is expected to grow at a healthy 1.4 million b/d in 2026, underpinned by continued strong economic activity in Asia and other non-OECD countries.

5. The G20 Framework Working Group meeting was held in Cape Town, South Africa

On January 15, local time, the G20 framework working group meeting hosted by South Africa was held in Cape Town. The meeting brought together representatives of G20 Members and relevant international organizations to discuss important issues of global economic growth and policy coordination. The conference aims to advance in-depth discussions on key economic challenges, including inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and their impact on the global economy. The importance of enhancing the participation of low-income and developing countries in global economic governance was also highlighted.

Domestic Macro Economy Index