January 17 Macroeconomic Index:Domestic policies promote economic stability and energy breakthroughs, while the international focus is on financial adjustment and geopolitics

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International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. National Tax Work Conference: Strengthen the implementation of structural tax reduction and fee reduction policies

2. The annual output of ultra-deep oil and gas in PetroChina's Tarim Oilfield exceeded 20 million tons

3. Li Qiang met with Sri Lankan President Dissanayake

4. In 2025, oil prices ushered in a "second consecutive rise", and experts say that short-term international oil prices had strong support

5. China Semiconductor Industry Association: Support domestic and foreign-funded semiconductor enterprises developing in China to safeguard their legitimate rights and interests in accordance with WTO rules

 International News

1. ECB meeting minutes: interest rate cuts need to be cautious and gradual, and further easing of policy is still possible in the future

2. Ukrainian Foreign Minister: It is useless for Slovakia to play the emotional card, and the interruption of Russian gas supply will not change

3. India announced the successful completion of satellite space docking

4. South Korea is considering buying more U.S. oil and gas to please Trump

5. Germany's headline CPI fell slightly in December, but the higher core CPI year-on-year rate raised concerns

Domestic News

1. National Tax Work Conference: Strengthen the implementation of structural tax reduction and fee reduction policies

According to the website of the State Administration of Taxation on January 16, from January 15th to 16th, the National Tax Work Conference was held in Beijing. The meeting proposed that we should strictly adhere to the organization of tax revenues in accordance with laws and regulations, resolutely adhere to the bottom line of not collecting "excessive taxes and fees", and unify the effective improvement of quality and the steady growth of quantity into the whole process of organizational income. Strengthen the implementation of structural tax and fee reduction policies, so that the enjoyment of the deserved pleasure can be enjoyed, and the fraud will be strictly prevented and investigated. We should pay close attention to the introduction of regulations for the implementation of the value-added tax law, and promote the improvement of the tax system and the standardization of preferential policies around boosting consumption, expanding domestic demand, and developing new quality productive forces. Efforts should be made to deepen the reform of tax collection and management, actively promote the revision of the Tax Collection and Administration Law, optimize the quality standards of tax and fee data, and promote the continuous improvement of the digital and intelligent level of tax and fee governance.

2. The annual output of ultra-deep oil and gas in PetroChina's Tarim Oilfield exceeded 20 million tons

A number of exploration wells and evaluation wells of more than 8,000 meters, such as Keshen 3102, Keshen 3104 and Mantan 1 in PetroChina's Tarim Oilfield, are in full swing to carry out oil testing operations. In 2024, the oil and gas equivalent production from the Tarim Oilfield at a depth of more than 6,000 meters exceeded 20 million tons, reaching 20.47 million tons.

3. Li Qiang met with Sri Lankan President Dissanayake

On the afternoon of January 16, Premier Li Qiang met with Sri Lankan President Dissanayake, who is on a state visit to China, at the Great Hall of the People. Li Qiang pointed out that China is ready to strengthen the synergy of development strategies with Sri Lanka, build high-quality Belt and Road cooperation, promote cooperation projects such as the comprehensive development of Colombo Port City and Hambantota, expand cooperation in green development, digital economy, agriculture and ocean, continue to expand economic and trade exchanges, and achieve more fruitful results. China is willing to import more high-quality products from Sri Lanka, encourage powerful Chinese enterprises to invest in Sri Lanka, and hope that Sri Lanka will continue to optimize the business environment and provide more convenience and security guarantees for Chinese enterprises. The two sides should continue to deepen exchanges and cooperation in cultural tourism, youth, sports, media and local governments. China stands ready to work with Sri Lanka and other Asian countries to practice true multilateralism and safeguard common interests.

4. In 2025, oil prices ushered in a "second consecutive rise", and experts say that short-term international oil prices had strong support

From 24 o'clock on January 16, 2025, domestic refined oil prices ushered in the second increase this year. Experts from the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission predict that short-term international oil prices will be strongly supported. At present, the international political and economic landscape is facing great uncertainty, and there are still great uncertainties in the geopolitical situation such as Russia, Ukraine, and the Middle East, which will exacerbate the volatility of the crude oil market and prices.

5. China Semiconductor Industry Association: Support domestic and foreign-funded semiconductor enterprises developing in China to safeguard their legitimate rights and interests in accordance with WTO rules

The China Semiconductor Industry Association issued a document stating that recently, the industry has reported to the Ministry of Commerce of China that the domestic mature process chip industry is facing unfair competition challenges from imported products from the United States, and there are demands to apply for anti-dumping and countervailing investigations. For a period of time, the Biden administration has imposed huge subsidies on its own chip industry, making American companies occupy an unequal advantage in market competition, and exporting chip products to China at low prices, seriously damaging the legitimate rights and interests of China's domestic industry. The steady development of the semiconductor industry is inseparable from a fair and competitive market environment. We firmly support domestic and foreign-funded semiconductor enterprises developing in China, and actively safeguard their legitimate rights and interests in accordance with WTO rules. At the same time, enterprises are encouraged to jointly promote the semiconductor industry to a new stage of high-quality development through continuous technological innovation, strengthening industrial chain coordination and cooperation, and actively carrying out international cooperation, and work together to build a more open, fair, competitive and orderly market order, so as to lay a solid foundation for the prosperity and development of the global semiconductor industry.

International News

1. ECB meeting minutes: interest rate cuts need to be cautious and gradual, and further easing of policy is still possible in the future

Policymakers concluded last month that the ECB needs to cut interest rates cautiously and gradually, but that further easing is likely to be carried out in the future, according to the minutes of the ECB's December meeting released on Thursday. The ECB cut interest rates for the third time in a row last month and said it would ease policy further given the slowdown in inflation, although the timing and pace of the cut are still up for debate. "This cautious approach remains justified given the current uncertainty, although it is considered appropriate to gradually ease policy restrictions if the inflation benchmark projections for the coming months and quarters are confirmed," the ECB minutes noted. "With little to no growth at the moment, the ECB's focus has shifted from excessive price growth to sluggish economic activity, and a growing number of policymakers are now arguing that interest rates should at least be lowered to levels that no longer hinder economic growth. The central bank will hold its next meeting on January 30, and investors have fully priced in its expectations of another 25 basis point cut. The benchmark rate is expected to fall further to 2% by the end of 2025.

2. Ukrainian Foreign Minister: It is useless for Slovakia to play the emotional card, and the interruption of Russian gas supply will not change

On January 15, local time, Ukrainian Foreign Minister said in an interview with local media that Ukraine had long announced that it would stop transit shipments of Russian gas and had no intention of reconsidering this decision. He stressed that despite the emotional card played by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico at the EU summit in December, Ukraine's top brass categorically refused to resume Russian gas shipments. In addition, regarding the voting rights that Slovakia will have in the process of Ukraine's accession to the European Union, and Fico's announcement that it has veto power on some EU aid matters as a reciprocal measure against Ukraine to stop Russian gas transit, he warned Slovakia not to abuse its status as an EU member to settle disputes, saying that "if this happens, we will react very strongly, which is unacceptable."

3. India announced the successful completion of satellite space docking

The Indian Space Research Organization announced on the 16th that the two satellites previously launched by the agency successfully completed the space docking mission on the same day, marking India as one of the few countries in the world that can successfully realize this technology. Two satellites used in India's Space Docking Test (SpaDeX) mission, which was launched on December 30, 2024, aims to develop and demonstrate the technologies needed for spacecraft to rendezvous, dock and separate in low-Earth orbit. Both docked satellites weigh about 220 kilograms.

4. South Korea is considering buying more U.S. oil and gas to please Trump

South Korea is considering increasing its oil and gas purchases from the United States to diversify its energy supply and potentially mitigate Trump's tariff threat. South Korea's trade, industry and energy minister, Ahn Deok-geun, said on Thursday that "the government is also considering providing more support to businesses so that they can import more oil and gas from non-Middle Eastern countries." "South Korea is highly dependent on exports to drive economic growth, and the United States is one of its major trading partners. At the same time, Trump promised a series of protectionist policies, including widespread tariffs, to reduce America's widening trade deficit with other countries. "Other countries are discussing how to ease the growing trade deficit under the Trump administration," Mr. Andergen said. "We're in a similar situation, so we're looking at increasing energy imports, and it's necessary to diversify our supply channels to improve energy security."

5. Germany's headline CPI fell slightly in December, but the higher core CPI year-on-year rate raised concerns

According to the data, the final monthly rate of CPI in Germany in December was 0.5%, and the preliminary value was 0.4%; Inflation edged back to 2.8% y/y in December, unchanged from the preliminary reading. Financial website Forexlive commented that the main concern was that the core annual rate climbed to 3.3% in December from 3.0% in November. This has raised concerns that Germany's inflation momentum stalled at the start of the year.

Domestic Macro Economy Index