January 21 Macroeconomic Index:Domestic grain production rises, international Trump is about to take office

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International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. Li Qiang: It is necessary to implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy to cultivate more new economic growth points.

2. He Lifeng asked at the national video conference on the deployment of urban renewal work to vigorously implement urban renewal and vigorously promote the key tasks of urban renewal in an orderly and effective manner.

3. National Energy Administration: Electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 6.8% year-on-year in 2024.

4. Exceed 400 million tons! China's domestic oil and gas production equivalent hit a record high in 2024.

5. Grain output has reached a new level of 1.4 trillion jin.

 International News

1. House prices rose in the UK, so sentiment in the housing market has improved.

2. Putin: Russia is ready to open a dialogue with the US government on Ukraine issue.

3. Bank of America: It's time for the Fed to stop cutting interest rates.

4. Trump is about to take office. European official: The EU should "take the initiative" rather than respond passively.

5. U.S. media: Trump plans to release a memo on trade policy, but will not impose new tariffs on the first day of his inauguration.

Domestic News

1. Li Qiang: It is necessary to implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy to cultivate more new economic growth points.

Li Qiang, Member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, presided over a symposium of experts, entrepreneurs and representatives of education, science, culture, health and sports on the afternoon of January 20 to listen to the opinions and suggestions on the "Government Work Report (Draft for Comments)". Li Qiang stressed that it is necessary to implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy to provide strong policy support for coping with challenges and promoting development. It is necessary to further deepen reform and expand opening up, and stimulate the vitality of various business entities. It is necessary to promote the transformation of old and new drivers with scientific and technological innovation and cultivate more new economic growth points. Greater efforts should be made to protect and improve people's livelihood, promote residents' income and reduce burdens, and improve the quality of life.

2. He Lifeng asked at the national video conference on the deployment of urban renewal work to vigorously implement urban renewal and vigorously promote the key tasks of urban renewal in an orderly and effective manner.

The video conference on the deployment of national urban renewal work was held in Beijing on the 20th, and He Lifeng, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, attended the meeting and delivered a speech. He Lifeng pointed out that the implementation of urban renewal must scientifically formulate a special plan for urban renewal, pay attention to strategic methods, adhere to the best of our ability, do what we can, take urgent issues first in a firm, orderly, and reasonable manner, adapt measures to local conditions, scientifically determine the transformation goals and standards, so that the masses are comfortable and pleased. It is necessary to implement the responsibility for the balance of project funds, in accordance with the principles of marketization and rule of law, make overall use of all aspects of financial resources, and build a good fund sharing mechanism between the government, the market and households. It is necessary to strengthen organizational guarantees to ensure the quality and safety of projects, and relevant central departments should strengthen policy support and jointly promote urban renewal work to achieve practical results.

3. National Energy Administration: Electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 6.8% year-on-year in 2024.

In 2024, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 9,852.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, of which the power generation of industries above designated size was 9,418.1 billion kWh. In terms of electricity consumption by industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 135.7 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%; and the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 6,387.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%; the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 1,834.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%; The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 1,494.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%.

4. Exceed 400 million tons! China's domestic oil and gas production equivalent hit a record high in 2024.

According to data released by the National Energy Administration (20th), in 2024, China's domestic oil and gas production equivalent exceeded 400 million tons for the first time, maintaining a rapid growth momentum of 10 million tons for 8 consecutive years. Crude oil production reached 213 million tons, an increase of 24 million tons compared to 2018. The output of natural gas was 246.4 billion cubic meters, with an average annual growth rate of more than 13 billion cubic meters in the past six years. The cumulative production of oil and gas equivalent in PetroChina's Changqing Oilfield, the largest oil and gas field in China, exceeded 1 billion tons. Old oilfields such as Daqing and Shengli continued to produce steadily, playing an important fundamental role. (CCTV News)

5. Grain output has reached a new level of 1.4 trillion jin.

The Information Office of the State Council held a series of press conferences on "China's High-quality Economic Development Results", and Zhang Xingwang, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, introduced the relevant situation of "consolidating the basic plate of 'three rural' and solidly promoting the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas". In 2024, China's agricultural and rural economy was generally stable and improving, grain production reached a new level, farmers' income grew steadily, and rural society was harmonious and stable, providing strong support for promoting high-quality economic and social development. Among them, grain production overcame the impact of natural disasters such as high temperature and drought, extreme floods, and super typhoons, and reaped a bumper harvest, with the output exceeding 1.4 trillion jin for the first time, reaching 1.413 trillion jin, an increase of 22.18 billion jin over the previous year.

International News

1. House prices rose in the UK, so sentiment in the housing market has improved.

Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets analyst Anthony Codling said in a note that while asking prices for homes in the UK performed well at the start of the year, rising longer-term mortgage rates and increased supply could dampen house price gains this year. Buyer demand remains strong despite high mortgage rates and uncertainty about the size and timing of mortgage rate cuts, he said. Codling said there are a lot of families looking to move in 2025, and firm pricing should help mitigate some of the impact of construction cost inflation. He said the rising asking price would be good for homebuilders as it meant improved and positive market sentiment. "Although there are many factors affecting the underlying real estate market, it is generally stable."

2. Putin: Russia is ready to open a dialogue with the US government on Ukraine issue.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia is ready to engage in dialogue with the new US administration on Ukraine, but the root causes of the crisis must be eliminated, and the goal of solving the problem should be lasting peace, not a brief truce. Speaking Monday at a meeting with permanent members of Russia's Security Council, Putin said that "we are ready to engage in dialogue with the new US administration on the conflict in Ukraine." The most important thing is to address the root causes of the crisis. As for the settlement of the situation itself, I would like to reiterate once again that the objective should not be a temporary truce, nor should it be aimed at regrouping forces and rearmament in the event of a continuation of the conflict, but rather to achieve long-term peace on the basis of respect for the legitimate interests of all the people living in the region. ”

3. Bank of America: It's time for the Fed to stop cutting interest rates.

Bank of America said the U.S. economy remains resilient as global markets move closer to Donald Trump's inauguration. There was strong employment data, retail sales data was also stable, and core inflation was still range-high at 3.2%. The cyclical and structural dynamics of the U.S. economy are consistent with the natural interest rate, which is quite close to the current Fed funds rate, but inflation remains stubbornly above target. This alone would justify the Fed ending its easing cycle. There is a great deal of uncertainty about the impact of Trump 2.0 in the United States and the rest of the world, with protectionist policies having an impact on inflation expectations. More worryingly, excessive fiscal stimulus could have an impact on the economy's operational potential. Unlike market pricing, Bank of America believes that the Fed has finished cutting interest rates.

4. Trump is about to take office. European official: The EU should "take the initiative" rather than respond passively.

According to the Financial Times, Europe will be scrutinizing the upcoming Trump inauguration for signs of how its own future will develop. Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on allies, take over Greenland and roll back climate commitments. Trump is expected to sign about 100 executive orders starting today, and those orders are likely to deliver on some of those promises. In the face of Trump's actions, the EU has remained largely silent. An EU official said: "We can guess what he will do, but we can't know in detail." A senior diplomat from a country outside the EU said: "The EU now really needs to show that it is a true union and stop inaction." Another European official said the EU needs to set its own agenda, not react to Trump's.

5. U.S. media: Trump plans to release a memo on trade policy, but will not impose new tariffs on the first day of his inauguration.

According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump plans to release a memo on Monday instructing federal agencies to study trade policy and assess U.S. trade relations with other countries, but not to impose new tariffs on his first day in office, as many trading partners fear. The presidential memo directs federal agencies to investigate and address the persistent trade deficit and address the unfair trade and monetary policies of other countries, an issue that has long plagued Trump. But the memo itself did not impose any new tariffs, which gave a temporary sigh of relief to the market, which feared that Trump would immediately impose high tariffs. On the contrary, the trade policy memo shows that there is still a heated debate within the new administration about how to deliver on Trump's campaign promises of widespread import tariffs and higher tariffs on opponents.

Domestic Macro Economy Index