January 24th Macroeconomic Index: Heilongjiang's Trade Surges 12.3%, China's Grain Output Hits Record High

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Domestic News

1. The total import and export value of Heilongjiang Province in 2023 increased by 12.3% year-on-year

2. SUNGROW: The company's development performance is steady and steady, and the gross profit margin may return to normal this year

3. Hit a record high: In 2023, China's grain output in 2023 was 1390.82 billion catties

4. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: Pig breeding is likely to continue to lose money after the Spring Festival, and the pig market situation in the second quarter is expected to be better than that of the same period last year

International News

1. ANZ Bank: Australia's tax cuts are equivalent to two interest rate cuts

2. The Bank of Japan is holding its ground and lowering its core inflation forecast for fiscal 2024

3. German demand has declined, and imports of petroleum products are under pressure

4. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in February is 97.4%

Domestic News

1. The total import and export value of Heilongjiang Province in 2023 increased by 12.3% year-on-year

According to the statistics of Harbin Customs, in 2023, the total import and export value of goods trade in Heilongjiang Province will reached a record high of 297.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, ranking sixth in the country. The annual import and export maintained double-digit growth for three consecutive years. Among them, exports were 76.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.4 percent, and imports were 221.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3 percent.

2. SUNGROW: The company's development performance is steady and steady, and the gross profit margin may return to normal this year

Sungrow's share price opened higher, rising nearly 7% at one point. The company announced last night that it is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 would increase by about 159%-187% year-on-year. The reporter called the investor hotline of Sungrow as an investor, and the staff said that the company has confidence in business development and the future space. In terms of business, in 2023, the company's new energy business will account for a high proportion of revenue but a small profit contribution, mainly due to low gross profit. In the future, it plans to spin off related businesses to solve its own capital needs. However, considering that the growth of the company's net profit in 2023 is caused by the superposition of multiple favorable factors such as lower freight rates and exchange rates, the gross profit level may return to a normal level in 2024, but the overall revenue should still increase.

3. Hit a record high: In 2023, China's grain output in 2023 was 1390.82 billion catties

The Information Office of the State Council held a press conference to introduce the operation of the agricultural and rural economy in 2023. According to the press conference, China's grain output in 2023 was 1,390.82 billion catties, an increase of 17.76 billion catties over the previous year, a record high, and stable at more than 1.3 trillion catties for 9 consecutive years.

4. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: Pig breeding is likely to continue to lose money after the Spring Festival, and the pig market situation in the second quarter is expected to be better than that of the same period last year

Lei Liugong, Director of the Department of Market and Information Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said at the press conference of the State Council Information Office today that for the later trend, we have recently organized experts, industry associations and key enterprises to conduct special consultations. It is believed that in December 2023, the large pig inventory of large-scale pig farms increased by 3.7% year-on-year, and these pigs will be slaughtered in the next 1-2 months, indicating that the supply of live pigs in the market is still relatively loose, and pig breeding is likely to continue to lose money after the Spring Festival. At the same time, it should also be noted that with the correction of the number of fertile sows, the number of newborn piglets has also decreased accordingly. According to the monitoring of our department, since October last year, the number of newborn piglets in the country has decreased year-on-year, which also indicates that the production capacity reduction has achieved a certain effect. With the gradual return of pig production capacity to a reasonable level, the pig market situation in the second quarter is expected to be better than the same period last year.

International News

1. ANZ Bank: Australia's tax cuts are equivalent to two interest rate cuts

ANZ said the tax cuts, which Australia will implement from July 1, will contribute about 0.4 percentage points to GDP over the next 12 months, equivalent to two 25 basis point rate cuts. ANZ analyst Adam Boyton said the likely overall size of stimulus in the federal budget meant the RBA could take some time to assess the impact of these policy changes. Therefore, Australia's easing policy this year is first fiscal policy, followed by monetary policy.

2. The Bank of Japan is holding its ground and lowering its core inflation forecast for fiscal 2024

The Bank of Japan on Tuesday maintained its widely expected ultra-loose monetary policy, while the BOJ lowered its core inflation forecast for fiscal 2024 to 2.4% from 2.8%, but kept its forecast unchanged, a measure of trend inflation, to reach 1.9% in both FY2024 and FY2025. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference at 14:30 Beijing time to explain the decision. Earlier, Kazuo Ueda stressed the need to postpone interest rate hikes until there is more evidence that inflation will remain around 2% for a long time, while wages are growing steadily. The focus will be on whether Kazuo Ueda will be more optimistic about the prospect of wages rising in tandem with inflation at the press conference, and if so, hint at a greater likelihood of Japan ending negative interest rates in March or April.

3. German demand has declined, and imports of petroleum products are under pressure

So far, the oversupply of several refineries in Germany has been particularly prominent, and in addition, domestic demand, including heating oil, remains slow in the New Year, despite the drop in temperatures. This is mainly due to the fact that end-users are able to rely on inventory, after stockpiling heavily in December. Argus data showed that the level of private and industrial storage tanks in January was higher than in the same period last year. Faced with ample domestic supply and slowing demand, importers are hesitant to import more oil into Germany. Imports from both the Rhine and northern ports are declining, as relatively low inland prices squeeze importers' profits. Shipowners said this was also reflected in weaker demand for spot space in Germany. This month, demand for transporting products into Germany via the Rhine fell sharply, pushing freight rates down.

4. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in February is 97.4%

According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in February is 97.9%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 2.1%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by March is 58.4%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 40.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 1.0%.

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