January 25th Macroeconomic Index: China's Photovoltaic Industry Sees Slower Growth in 2024, Henan's High-Standard Farmland Boosts Grain Output

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Domestic News

1. Jiangsu Pacific Quartz responded to the limit down: the growth rate of the photovoltaic industry in 2023 was too strong, and the demand will still grow in 2024, but the growth rate may be lower than that in 2023

2. Henan: In 2023, high-standard farmland accounts for 76% of the total grain output of 132.49 billion catties

3. 3Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security: Actively promote the national overall planning of pension insurance

4. State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council: Steadily improve and increase, and continue to deliver high-quality enterprises to the capital market

International News

1. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce: The Bank of Canada still needs more progress on inflation before discussing interest rate cuts

2. Goldman Sachs: Trump's victory in the 2024 election could boost bond yields and the dollar

3. Citi: The mid-year target for the S&P 500 is expected to be 4,800 points

4. The outlook for Malaysia's palm oil market in 2024 is still optimistic

Domestic News

1. Jiangsu Pacific Quartz responded to the limit down: the growth rate of the photovoltaic industry in 2023 was too strong, and the demand will still grow in 2024, but the growth rate may be lower than that in 2023

Pacific Quartz fell in early trading today. Its staff of the Security Department responded that the demand for semi-conductors and photovoltaic industries will continue to grow in 2024, of which the growth rate of the photovoltaic industry in 2023 was too strong, and the demand will still grow in 2024, but the growth rate may be lower than in 2023. The growth rate of the company's semiconductor quartz material business this year will not be too slow, and the 6,000 tons/year electronic grade quartz product project has been put into production and contributed a certain amount of profit, which will bring growth to the performance in 2024.

2. Henan: In 2023, high-standard farmland accounts for 76% of the total grain output of 132.49 billion catties

On January 24, the Information Office of the People's Government of Henan Province held a press conference to introduce the economic operation of Henan Province in 2023. In 2023, Henan's agricultural production was generally stable, with a total of 85.85 million mu of high-standard farmland built, accounting for 76% of the total cultivated land area of the province, ranking second in the country. In response to the adverse effects of severe "bad rain" and "autumn rain in western China", the annual grain output reached 132.49 billion catties, stable at more than 130 billion catties for seven consecutive years, of which the autumn grain output was 61.48 billion catties, an increase of 3.3%, and the growth rate ranked first among the main grain-producing provinces in the country.

3. Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security: Actively promote the national overall planning of pension insurance

According to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, in terms of the next work arrangement, the first is to actively promote the national overall planning of pension insurance to ensure that the pension is paid on time and in full. We will continue to expand the coverage of enterprise annuities and promote the full implementation of the personal pension system. Promote qualified village collective economic organizations to subsidize urban and rural residents to pay pension insurance premiums, and increase the accumulation of personal accounts. The second is to continue to promote the universal insurance plan. Publicize and implement the regulations on social security management. Promote the participation of flexible workers and workers in new forms of employment in pension insurance. Promote the pension insurance of urban and rural residents should be fully guaranteed. Carry out a pilot project of direct settlement of work-related injury insurance for cross-provincial and non-local medical treatment. The third is to solidly promote the consolidation and improvement of social security fund management, and promote the expansion of the entrusted investment scale of the basic pension insurance fund. Accelerate the construction of the "all-in-one card" for social security card resident services, and launch more digital application scenarios.

4. State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council: Steadily improve and increase, and continue to deliver high-quality enterprises to the capital market

Xie Xiaobing, Head of the Property Rights Management Bureau of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, said that by the end of 2023, the market value of listed companies controlled by central enterprises in China reached 13.5 trillion yuan. Improving the quality of listed companies is a long-term task that requires continuous efforts. In the next step, we will continue to build a listing pattern with clear positioning and echelon development. Promote enterprises in accordance with the overall idea of "strengthening and improving a batch of companies, adjusting and revitalizing a batch of companies, and cultivating and reserving a batch of companies", steadily refine and increase, continuously deliver premium products to the capital market, and actively optimize the stock, so that listed companies can work hard in the industry in which they are located, become excellent listed companies, and become leading listed companies in the industry. On the other hand, we have made up our minds, taken the initiative to implement policies, and resolutely adjusted and revitalized the listing platforms of some enterprises that are not their main business and non-advantages.

International News

1. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce: The Bank of Canada still needs more progress on inflation before discussing interest rate cuts

The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce noted that the situation in Canada has not changed much over the past few months. Canada's economic growth remains weak, and inflation has shown some progress but is still insufficient, judging by the central bank's preferred core index. The main message of the BoC press conference is expected to be to set the floor that further progress on inflation needs to be seen before a rate cut is discussed. The bank may again symbolically mention the possibility of further monetary policy restrictions, but this should be balanced by acknowledging the flexibility of the return to the target and the huge role of housing costs. What we would like to see is that the central bank will place more emphasis on a broader set of inflation measures as a guide for monetary policy.

2. Goldman Sachs: Trump's victory in the 2024 election could boost bond yields and the dollar

Goldman Sachs witnessed the market reaction after the results of last week's Iowa primary election. They locked the window period of 13 hours after the results were released. Goldman Sachs noted that the appreciation of the dollar against major currencies is unusual in comparison to normal levels of volatility. The dollar's apparent moving trend during the window suggest that Trump's trade and international policies could give a further boost if he wins. At the same time, Treasury yields have also moved higher, supporting their view that Trump's victory in the 2024 election could boost bond yields.

3. Citi: The mid-year target for the S&P 500 is expected to be 4,800 points

After a strong rally in the fourth quarter of 2023, a pullback should be expected as the Fed's tone shifts, and buy it as an opportunity, with the S&P 500 targeting 4,800 points at the mid-year and 5,100 points at the end of the year, a Citi analyst said in the report. The analyst said that the key to the performance of the stock market in 2024 will be the expansion of the market, and a group of leading stocks have significantly outperformed the laggard stocks, and should be overweight cyclical stocks compared to defensive stocks.

4. The outlook for Malaysia's palm oil market in 2024 is still optimistic

According to foreign media reports, the palm oil industry is expected to become a key driver of Malaysia's economic growth in 2024 and make a significant contribution to the global oil market. Malaysia's Minister of Plantation and Primary Industries Datuk Seri Johari Abdul Ghani said the outlook for the palm oil market in 2024 remains positive despite the major challenges. "The outlook for the palm oil market in 2024 remains positive despite significant domestic and international challenges, including labour shortages, unpredictable weather conditions, concerns about environmental issues, geopolitical turmoil and changes in trade policies. At the same time, strong demand for palm oil in key destinations in 2023 is also driving this positive outlook.

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